A22C:
Grand Challenges in Earth System Modeling: Decadal Climate Variability and Change, Prediction, and Its Applications I

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Session ID#: 16213

Session Description:
Over past several decades, regions across the globe have experienced substantial climate variability and change, such as warming surface temperature, prolonged droughts, increased frequency of floods; such changes have profound impacts on the human, ecological, and physical systems.   Despite considerable improvements in Earth System models, accurately simulating and predicting global and regional climate variability at interannual, decadal and centennial scales remains a grand challenge.  This session welcomes contributions on the development and application of the new-generation Earth System models to study the interactions and feedbacks between meteorological, oceanic, cryospheric, hydrological, biogeochemical, ecological, and aerosol processes from global to regional scales. Results on the prediction and predictability on decadal time scales associated with the ocean and land memory and on the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural and other human activities are encouraged.  This cross-cutting session will report both on state-of-the-art achievements as well as future opportunities and challenges
Primary Convener:  Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Geography, Los Angeles, United States
Conveners:  Anjuli S Bamzai, National Science Foundation, Directorate for Geosciences, 2415 Eisenhower Ave, Arlington, VA, United States, Eric Itsweire, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States and Raymond W Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States
Chairs:  Eric Itsweire, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States, Raymond W Arritt, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States and Anjuli S Bamzai, National Science Foundation, Directorate for Geosciences, 2415 Eisenhower Ave, Arlington, VA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Dr. Fernando De Sales, PhD., San Diego State University, Geography, San Diego, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • H - Hydrology
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

0402 Agricultural systems [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) - Recent Developments in Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling (Invited) (119850)
Deborah Hemming1,2, Penny Boorman1, Anna B Harper3, Chris Jones1, Colin Jones4,5, Gillian Kay1, Alistair Sellar1 and Andy Wiltshire1, (1)Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, United Kingdom, (2)University of Birmingham, Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, Birmingham, United Kingdom, (3)University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Modeling biophysical/biogeochemical/ecological/ocean/atmosphere two-way interactions using NCEP CFS/SSiB5/TRIFFID/DAYCENT: challenge and promising (133084)
Yongkang Xue1, Ye Liu2, Peter Michael Cox3, Dr. Fernando De Sales, PhD.4, Jiwoo Lee5, Larry Marx6, Melannie Diane Hartman7, Rongqian Yang8, William J Parton7, Bo Qiu9 and Michael B Ek10, (1)University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Geography, Los Angeles, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)San Diego State University, Geography, San Diego, CA, United States, (5)Lawence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, (6)Center for Ocean-Atmospheric-Land Studies Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (7)Colorado State University, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Fort Collins, United States, (8)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (9)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (10)NSF NCAR, Boulder, United States
Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems (170602)
Enrique N Curchitser1, Peter Lawrence2, Frank Felder3, William Large4, Julio T Bacmeister5, Clint Andrews3 and Robert E Kopp6, (1)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (3)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (4)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Rutgers University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Brunswick, United States
Understanding the dynamic climate-fire-ecosystem interactions using the CESM: Fire model development and implications for decadal climate variability (182990)
Yufei Zou1, Yuhang Wang2, Ziming Ke1, Hanqin Tian3, Jia Yang4 and Yongqiang Liu5, (1)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (2)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, United States, (3)Auburn University, Auburn, United States, (4)Auburn University at Montgomery, Montgomery, AL, United States, (5)USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA, United States
NEW DIRECTIONS AND CHALLENGES FOR THE COMMUNITY EARTH SYSTEM MODELIn this talk, we will discuss the upcoming release of CESM2 and the challenges encountered in the process. We will then discuss upcoming new opportunities in development and applications of Earth System Models (Invited) (124278)
J F Lamarque, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Decadal and Long-Term Global Warming Projection based on an Observational Data-Driven Model and Earth System Models (150315)
Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and Kerrie Geil, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
The Grand Challenge of Correctly Representing Changes in Regional Precipitation Extremes and Droughts in Climate Models (152963)
Prashant D Sardeshmukh and Aaron Wang, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
Interannual Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean's Temperature Field and its Association with the Wind-Stress Forcing (153410)
Andreas Groth1, Yizhak Feliks1, Michael Ghil2 and Dmitri A Kondrashov2, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Atmos. Sci, Los Angeles, CA, United States

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