2016 Fall Meeting

December 12-16

Large uncertainty in the radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols has persisted through all IPCC assessment reports since 1995. This is despite significant developments in model complexity, increases in global observations and advances in our knowledge of aerosol processes. This session invites submissions that address the causes of uncertainty and methodologies to reduce the uncertainty through process-based model evaluation and constraint of model simulations using observations of aerosols, clouds and radiation. We welcome studies of model parametric as well as structural causes of uncertainty using single and multi-model approaches. Also in scope are studies that seek to understand the uncertainty in observation-based estimates of forcing. The session will include advances in our understanding of global scale forcing as well as studies of smaller scale phenomena where the implications for reducing uncertainty in regional and global scale forcing are demonstrated.