A22E:
Seasonal to Decadal Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Climate Variability and Predictability I

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Session ID#: 16398

Session Description:
Recent years have seen major advances with regard to understanding the origin of extratropical Northern Hemisphere seasonal to decadal climate variability, assessing its predictability and performing skillful predictions. There is still uncertainty in the balance of processes that drive predictability but several key fields have emerged during the last several years. Given the very promising progress that has been made in predicting extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate we now wish to bring together different communities to discuss the level of understanding extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate variability and further prospects for prediction.Papers are invited on the origin and predictability of climate variability in the extratropics. Observational and modelling studies are both welcome. The papers can deal with forced and unforced variability. Methodological papers are also welcome, including investigations that assess methods of ensemble forecasting, address model bias and initialization shock, and improve climate prediction models or data assimilation techniques.
Primary Convener:  Mojib Latif, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Conveners:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States and Adam A Scaife, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom
Chairs:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States and Mojib Latif, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
OSPA Liaison:  Adam A Scaife, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3362 Stratosphere/troposphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Revisiting the role of external radiative forcing in driving the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (123690)
Katinka Bellomo1, Prof. Lorenzo M Polvani, PhD1, Mark A Cane2, Amy C Clement3 and Lisa Murphy Goes4, (1)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)University of Miami, RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States, (4)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States
On the nonlinear forced response of the North Atlantic atmosphere to meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream path (176293)
Hyodae Seo1, Young-Oh Kwon2, Terrence M Joyce2 and Caroline Ummenhofer3, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States, (2)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (3)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Dynamics of Monthly Anomalies of the Western Pacific Teleconnection Pattern (Invited) (127038)
Hisashi Nakamura, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan and Kazuaki Nishii, Mie University, Graduate School of Bioresources, Tsu, Japan
Interannual variability of Western North Pacific SST anomalies and its impact on North Pacific to North America (155726)
Jae-Heung Park, Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, Soon-Il An, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea and Jong-Seong Kug, POSTECH, Pohang, South Korea
Decadal Potential Predictability of Upper Ocean Heat Content over the Twentieth Century (143604)
Shujun Li, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, Liping Zhang, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Lixin Wu, Ocean University of China, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Qingdao, China
Seasonal Extratropical Storm Activity Potential Predictability and its Origins during the Cold Seasons (139587)
Katherine A Pingree-Shippee1, Francis W Zwiers2 and David E Atkinson1, (1)University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada, (2)University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada
On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming (143686)
Bolan Gan1, Lixin Wu2, Fan Jia3, Shujun Li1, Wenju Cai4, Hisashi Nakamura5, Michael A Alexander6 and Arthur J Miller7, (1)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (2)Ocean University of China, Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Qingdao, China, (3)Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Qingdao, China, (4)Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China, (5)The University of Tokyo, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan, (6)NOAA Boulder, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, United States
Dynamically Intuitive and Potentially Predicatable Three-Dimensional Structures in the Low Frequency Flow Variability of the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere (198583)
Justin J Wettstein1,2, Camille Li2 and Stephanie Bradshaw3, (1)Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (3)Carthage College, Physics / Geography and Earth Science, Kenosha, WI, United States

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