A44F:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting of High-Impact Weather and Climate Events III

Submit an Abstract to this Session Please know the abstract submission deadline has passed. There are no exceptions to this deadline and no new abstracts can be submitted.
You can still search the program to see your colleague�s abstract submissions as well as the sessions submitted for the 2016 Fall Meeting. The final program will be released in early October.


Session ID#: 16403

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S­) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S project database, and on possible influences of the 2015/16 El Nino on sub-seasonal forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Conveners:  Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States, Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Chairs:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Climate model applications at the scale of NWP (Invited) (150441)
Paul Aaron Ullrich, University of California Davis, Davis, United States, Colin M. Zarzycki, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate & Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Meina Wang, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States and Alan Rhoades, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States
A New Method for Determining the Optimal Lagged Ensemble (175617)
Laurie L Trenary1,2, Timothy M DelSole1,3, Michael K Tippett4,5 and Kathleen Pegion6, (1)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (2)Center for Land-Ocean-Atmospheric Studies Fairfax, Atmospheric,Oceanic, and Earth Science, Fairfax, VA, United States, (3)Center for Ocean-Atmospheric-Land Studies Fairfax, Atmospheric,Oceanic, and Earth Scinece, Fairfax, VA, United States, (4)King Abdulaziz University, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, (5)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, (6)University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States
Assessing the potential for improving S2S forecast skill through multimodel ensembling (174472)
Nicolas Vigaud1, Andrew William Robertson2, Michael K Tippett3, Lei Wang4 and Michael James Bell1, (1)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States, (3)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Tropical Rainfall, Rossby Waves and Prediction of the Winter NAO (156587)
Adam A Scaife, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom
Role of stratospheric processes on ENSO-NAO connections on Seasonal-to-Subseasonal timescale (164828)
Lantao Sun1, Judith Perlwitz1 and Jadwiga Richter2, (1)CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)U. S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Subseasonal Prediction of Blocking-Related Processes with Advanced Coupled Models including the 30km FIM-HYCOM Coupled Model (183060)
Stan Benjamin1, Shan Sun2, Benjamin Green3, Rainer Bleck4, Georg A Grell5 and Haiqin Li2, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (3)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Tropical Cyclones and Madden-Julian Oscillation relationship in the S2S dataset (125675)
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate & Society, Palisades, NY, United States, Suzana J. Camargo, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom and Adam H Sobel, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States
Stochastic multi-scale modeling for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction (158343)
Aneesh Subramanian1, Frederic Vitart2, Antje Weisheimer1 and Tim Palmer3, (1)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, (3)University of Oxford, Physics/AOPP, Oxford, United Kingdom

See more of: Atmospheric Sciences