A43O:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting of High-Impact Weather and Climate Events II

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Session ID#: 16408

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S­) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S project database, and on possible influences of the 2015/16 El Nino on sub-seasonal forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Conveners:  Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States, Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Chairs:  Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Hyemi Kim, Ewha Womans University, Department of Science Education, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
OSPA Liaison:  Hyemi Kim, Ewha Womans University, Department of Science Education, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

From Sub-Seasonal Prediction to Action: The Role of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) in Promoting Forecasting Science and Services (168284)
Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States, Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, Paolo Ruti, World Meteorological Organisation, World Weather Research Division, Geneva, Switzerland and Rixen Michel, World Meteorological Organization, World Climate Research Programme, Geneva, Switzerland
Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information (Invited) (121311)
Upmanu Lall, Columbia University, Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
Global Predictability and Prediction Skill of Atmospheric Rivers (152305)
Michael J Deflorio, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Sub-seasonal variability and forecast skill of precipitation in the United States during the 2015-16 winter (Invited) (122824)
Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, United States
Flipping the Western United States El Niño Precipitation Pattern during the 2015/16 Winter (180208)
Xiaosong Yang1, Gabriel Vecchi2, Liwei Jia3, Sarah B Kapnick4, Thomas L Delworth5, Rich Gudgel6 and Seth Underwood6, (1)NOAA, GFDL, Princeton, United States, (2)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and at the Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (5)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (6)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Evaluation of the Ability of S2S and NMME Models to Predict Heat Waves Following Drought Events in the United States (122264)
Trent Ford, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Geography and Environmental Resources, Carbondale, IL, United States and Paul Dirmeyer, George Mason University, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, United States
Attributing Predictable Signals at Subseasonal Timescales (177083)
Ann Shelly1, Warwick Norton2, Dan Rowlands3 and Jason Beech-Brandt3, (1)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, (2)City Financial, New York, United States, (3)City Financial, London, United Kingdom
Modes and Downscaling: the Two-Step Philosophy of Forecasting (Invited) (119771)
Hans von Storch, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany, Lan Xia, Yunnan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Kunming, China, Donghai Wang, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, United States and Yanfeng Zhao, CAMS Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Beijing, China

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