NH44A:
New Methods to Forecast Volcanic Eruptions I

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Session ID#: 16774

Session Description:
A key goal in volcanology is to develop early warning systems to forecast the type and style of forthcoming volcanic eruptions. This requires unravelling the physicochemical signals associated with the migration of magma, the accumulation of gases in volcano plumbing systems, and the mineralogic sealing of volcanic conduits. Despite significant advances made during the last decades, an optimal forecasting method remains elusive, as revealed, for example, by the catastrophic recent eruption of Ontake volcano (Japan). In this session, we seek contributions that cover field, experimental, numerical, and/or theoretical studies that aim to improve the forecasting of volcanic events from a broad range of monitoring approaches, including gas, seismic, deformation, gravity, and muon tomography. We encourage contributions that challenge established paradigms and that provide new methods based upon an understanding of the mechanisms involved in volcanic eruptions.
Primary Convener:  Társilo Girona, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States
Conveners:  Corentin Caudron, University of Cambridge, Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Marie Edmonds, University of Cambridge, Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Paul Segall, Stanford University, Geophysics, Stanford, CA, United States
Chairs:  Társilo Girona, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States, Corentin Caudron, University of Cambridge, Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Marie Edmonds, University of Cambridge, Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Paul Segall, Stanford University, Geophysics, Stanford, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Társilo Girona, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • V - Volcanology, Geochemistry and Petrology
Index Terms:

4316 Physical modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]
8419 Volcano monitoring [VOLCANOLOGY]
8488 Volcanic hazards and risks [VOLCANOLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Monitoring and Modeling: The Future of Volcanic Eruption Forecasting (Invited) (123155)
Michael P Poland1, Matthew E Pritchard2, Kyle R Anderson3, Maria Furtney2 and Simon A Carn4, (1)Cascades Volcano Observatory, U. S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, WA, United States, (2)Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, (3)USGS California Volcano Observatory, Moffett Field, United States, (4)Michigan Technological University, Department of Geological and Mining Engineering & Sciences, Houghton, MI, United States
Forecasting the Onset Time of Volcanic Eruptions Using Ground Deformation Data (145358)
Stephen Blake, Open University, School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Milton Keynes, MK7, United Kingdom and Joaquin A Cortes, University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Joint-inversion of gravity data and cosmic ray muon flux to detect shallow subsurface density structure beneath volcanoes: Testing the method at a well-characterized site (158016)
Mousumi Roy1, Megan Lewis2, Nicolas K George3, Alex Johnson2, Michal Dichter4, Charlotte A Rowe5 and Elena Guardincerri6, (1)University of New Mexico, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Albuquerque, United States, (2)Univ New Mexico, Physics and Astronomy, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (3)Univ New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (4)University of New Mexico Main Campus, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (5)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (6)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
Hazards posed by distal ash transport and sedimentation from extreme volcanic eruptions (178394)
Dork L Sahagian1, Alexander A Proussevitch2, Christopher Michael White3 and Joseph Klewicki3, (1)Lehigh University, Earth & Environmental Sciences, Bethlehem, PA, United States, (2)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Earth Systems Research Center, Durham, NH, United States, (3)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Mechanical Engineering Department, Durham, NH, United States
Forecasting volcanic explosions based on seismic quiescence (Invited) (139926)
Diana C. Roman, Carnegie Institution for Science, Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Washington, DC, United States, Peter C La Femina, The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States, Mel Rodgers, University of Oxford, Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford, United Kingdom, Halldor Geirsson, University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences, Reykjavik, Iceland and Virginia Tenorio, Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales, Managua, Nicaragua
Eruption Forecast Using Volcanic Tremor: A Case Study in Iceland (Bárðarbunga) (136705)
Eva Patricia Silke Eibl1, Christopher J Bean2, Kristin S Vogfjord3, Yingzi Ying4, Ivan Lokmer4, Martin Möllhoff4 and Finnur Pálsson5, (1)University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, (2)Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, Dublin, Ireland, (3)Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland, (4)University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland, (5)University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences, Reykjavik, Iceland
Probabilistic short-term forecasting of eruption rate at Kīlauea Volcano using a physics-based model (152959)
Kyle R Anderson, USGS, California Volcano Observatory, Menlo Park, CA, United States
Long-times Series of Infrasonic Records at Open-vents Volcanoes (Yasur volcano, Vanuatu, 2003-2014): a Key to Forecast Volcanic Eruptions ? (138345)
Sylvie Vergniolle1, Christelle Zielinski1, Viviane Souty1, Philipson Bani2, Alexis LE Pichon3, Michel Lardy4, Philippe Millier3, Pascal Herry5, Sylvain Todman6 and Esline Garaebiti6, (1)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France, (2)IRD, Laboratoire Magma et volcans, Nouméa, New Caledonia, (3)Commissariat a l’Energie Atomique, Bruyeres le chatel, France, (4)Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Noumea, New Caledonia, (5)CEA, DAM, DIF, Arpajon, France, (6)Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department, Port Vila, Vanuatu

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