H13P:
Drought: Monitoring, Prediction, and Links to Evapotranspiration and Evaporative Demand I

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Session ID#: 17014

Session Description:
Given the significant threats posed by drought to water supply, livestock health, agricultural productivity, and commerce, research is needed to better monitor its character and predict its development. Improving predictions of meteorological drivers for drought is an ongoing challenge. There is also a key gap for understanding drivers of agricultural and hydrological drought, especially learning how evapotranspiration and evaporative demand dynamics drive drought development and contribute to its severity. In this session we invite contributions on advances in the monitoring, early warning, and prediction of both long-term and “flash” droughts that can support better-informed management decisions for water and land resources, and also contributions focusing on evapotranspiration’s role in drought: on its modeling, prediction, and observation across time and space scales, on process-based approaches to determining drivers for past and future trends in evapotranspiration and evaporative demand, and on conceptual frameworks for characterizing and linking meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts.
Primary Convener:  Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States
Conveners:  Mike Hobbins, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Martin P Hoerling, NOAA Boulder, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States and Michael L Roderick, The Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Chairs:  Martin P Hoerling, NOAA Boulder, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States and Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1812 Drought [HYDROLOGY]
1818 Evapotranspiration [HYDROLOGY]
1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets [HYDROLOGY]
1843 Land/atmosphere interactions [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Climate change and intensified meteorological droughts over the CONUS in the 21st century (132132)
Ali Ahmadalipour1, Hamid Moradkhani1 and Mark D. Svoboda2, (1)Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States, (2)University of Nebraska-Lincoln, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, United States
A Review of 2015-2016 El Niño Prediction and its Little Influence on Drought-Stricken California (Invited) (126433)
Yehui Chang1, Randal D Koster2, Siegfried D Schubert3 and Max Suarez1, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, (3)SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as a Modulator of the Rainfall Sensitivity in the Continental US (179147)
Dong Eun Lee1, Mingfang Ting2, Nicolas Vigaud3, Yochanan Kushnir4 and Anthony Barnston3, (1)Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Columbia Climate School, New York, United States, (3)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Columbia Univ, Palisades, NY, United States
The Evolution of Drought Transition Periods in the United States Corn Belt Region (147666)
Nicholas J Schiraldi, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY, United States and Paul E. Roundy, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States
Intensified multi-year droughts in California due to land-atmosphere interactions and land-memory processes (181671)
Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, David M Lawrence, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Ben Livneh, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Boulder, United States
Modeling the role of subsurface soil spring temperature anomalies feedback in the development of summer drought in the U.S. Southern Great Plains: Added value of regional climate modeling (181807)
Ismaila Diallo, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Geography, Los Angeles, United States and Catalina M Oaida Taglialatela, Raytheon, Jet Propulsion Laboratory/PODAAC, Pasadena, CA, United States
Understanding the Impact of Ground Water Treatment and Evapotranspiration Parameterizations in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) on Warm Season Predictions (183618)
Michael B Ek, NSF NCAR, Boulder, United States and Rongqian Yang, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
A Near Real-time Probabilistic Drought Forecasting Framework (135518)
Mahkameh Zarekarizi1, Hamid Moradkhani1, Hongxiang Yan2 and Benjamin Beal1, (1)Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States, (2)Portland State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland, OR, United States

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