H23L:
Hydroclimatic Extremes: Drought III

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Session ID#: 17077

Session Description:
Drought is among the costliest natural hazards in the U.S. and around the world. Understanding drought’s hydroclimatic causes, frequency and severity, and producing reliable predictions are of critical importance for impact assessments, disaster mitigation, and future projection. This session invites contributions from all aspects of drought monitoring, diagnostics, prediction, and projection including (1) understanding the physical mechanism and manifestation of drought events, (2) estimation of drought frequency, spatial patterns, and intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability, (3) probabilistic and deterministic modeling and forecasting, (4) predictability of dynamic models and statistical methods in drought detection, (5) impacts of climate, landscape, and demand projections on the severity and frequency of future droughts, (6) drought indicators and assessment frameworks, and (7) diagnosis and attribution of drought events.
Primary Convener:  L. Gwen Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States
Conveners:  Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States and Shahrbanou Madadgar, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
Chairs:  Hamid Moradkhani, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States, L. Gwen Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States and Shahrbanou Madadgar, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Shahrbanou Madadgar, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
Co-Organized with:
Natural Hazards, Global Environmental Change, and Natural Hazards

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1812 Drought [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Impacts of ENSO, global warming and vegetation on future droughts (171911)
Celine Bonfils1, Gemma Jayne Anderson1, Benjamin D Santer1, Thomas J Phillips1, Karl E. Taylor2, Matthias Cuntz3, Mark D Zelinka4, Kate Marvel5, Benjamin Cook6, Ivana Cvijanovic2 and Paul James Durack1, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Livermore, CA, United States, (3)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany, (4)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (6)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California (187535)
Ali Sarhadi, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada, Noah S Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, United States and Maria Concepcion Ausin, Departamento de Estadística, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Getafe, Spain, Getafe, Spain
Assessment of Temporal-Spatial Variation of Hydrological Drought in Xijiang River Basin from 1961 to 2014 (134975)
Qingxia Lin1, Zhiyong Wu2, Vijay P Singh3 and Lu Guihua1, (1)Hohai University, Nanjing, China, (2)Hohai University, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing, China, (3)Texas A & M University, Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, College Station, TX, United States
A Hybrid Framework for Drought Forecasting using Land Data Assimilation and Multivariate Copula Modeling (135900)
Hongxiang Yan1, Hamid Moradkhani2, Mahkameh Zarekarizi2 and Benjamin Beal2, (1)Portland State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland, OR, United States, (2)Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
An operational drought prediction framework in the United States based on USDM and NMME (147406)
Zengchao Hao1, Youlong Xia2, Lifeng Luo3, Fanghua Hao1, Wei Ouyang4 and Hongguang Cheng1, (1)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, (2)Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, (4)Beijing Normal University, School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing, China
Application of improved May‒July seasonal rainfall forecasts for the implementation of drought contingency triggers in water supply reservoirs in Texas (181657)
Dinali Nelun Fernando, Texas Water Development Board, Water Science and Conservation, Austin, TX, United States, John Zhu, Texas Water Development Board, Water Availability, Austin, TX, United States and Rong Fu, University of California, Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning for Water Resource Management in the UK: an Impact Focused Approach (147054)
Lucy Jane Barker1, Jamie Hannaford1, Erik Tijdeman2 and Cedric Laize3, (1)UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom, (2)University of Freiburg, Freiberg, Germany, (3)Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
Impact of Initial Condition Errors and Precipitation Forecast Bias on Drought Simulation and Prediction in the Huaihe River Basin (134305)
Huating Xu1, Lifeng Luo2 and Zhiyong Wu1, (1)Hohai University, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing, China, (2)Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States

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