S23E:
Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Scientific Advances, Validation and Implementation, Communication and Uptake II

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Session ID#: 17964

Session Description:
Earthquakes seldom come alone; they often trigger additional earthquakes that exacerbate existing crises or indeed initiate a disaster. The recent M7 April 15, 2016, Kumamoto, Japan earthquake occurred mere days after two earlier M6 temblors, serving as yet another dramatic example of a so-called aftershock that proved to be more damaging than the initial mainshock. This session focuses on recent progress in operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), which involves the generation and timely dissemination of authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazard, with the purpose of helping communities prepare for earthquakes. We invite contributions spanning the range of challenges facing OEF. Topics may include: scientific advances in physical and statistical modelling of earthquake triggering, clustering and cascading; validation and evaluation of forecast skill; operationalization and implementation in real-time, including data access issues and uncertainties; best practices for communication; and uptake from existing and potential users of operational forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Nicholas van der Elst, U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States, Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand and Warner Marzocchi, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
Chairs:  Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Nicholas van der Elst, U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States and Warner Marzocchi, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
OSPA Liaison:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • G - Geodesy
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

4334 Disaster risk communication [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]
7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology [SEISMOLOGY]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast (Invited) (138684)
Edward H Field, USGS Central Region Offices Denver, Denver, CO, United States, Kevin R Milner, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Jeanne Hardebeck, USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Morgan T Page, USGS Pasadena Field Office, Pasadena, CA, United States, Nicholas van der Elst, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Thomas H Jordan, Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Andrew Jay Michael, USGS Western Regional Offices Menlo Park, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Bruce E Shaw, Columbia Univ, Palisades, NY, United States and Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom
Connecting crustal seismicity and earthquake-driven stress evolution in southern California (149559)
Fred F Pollitz, US Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States and Camilla Cattania, Stanford Earth Sciences, Stanford, CA, United States
An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting (171505)
Peng Han1, Jiancang Zhuang2, Katsumi Hattori1 and Yosihiko Ogata2, (1)Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, (2)Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
Simulation Based Earthquake Forecasting with RSQSim (132164)
Jacquelyn J Gilchrist, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Thomas H Jordan, Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, James H Dieterich, UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States and Keith B Richards-Dinger, University of California Riverside, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Riverside, CA, United States
A Forecasting Procedure for Plate Boundary Earthquakes Based on Sequential Data Assimilation - Application to the Nankai Megathrust Earthquake Sequences (193840)
Takane Hori1, Mamoru Hyodo2, Ryoko Nakata1, Shin'ichi Miyazaki3 and YoshiYuki Kaneda4, (1)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan, (2)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (3)Kyoto University, Department of Geophysics, Kyoto, Japan, (4)Kagawa University, Kagawa, Japan
Probability forecasts based on multiple seismicity anomalies: Case of the M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake of 2016 (170180)
Yosihiko Ogata, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
Ensemble Model Earthquake Forecasts During the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence (188599)
Matteo Taroni1, Maximilian J Werner2, Warner Marzocchi1 and Jeremy D Zechar3, (1)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (2)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Jumping over the hurdles to effectively communicate the Operational Earthquake Forecast (Invited) (137733)
Sara McBride1, Anne M Wein2, Julia Becker3, Sally Potter4, Elspeth N. Tilley5, Matt Gerstenberger3, Caroline Orchiston6 and David M Johnston7, (1)Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand, (2)U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Middleton, CA, United States, (3)GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, (4)GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, (5)Massey University, Palmeston North, New Zealand, (6)University of Otago, Centre for Sustainability, School of Geography, Dunedin, New Zealand, (7)Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

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