Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits

Michael E Mann1, Andrew P Schurer2, Ed Hawkins3, Simon FB Tett4 and Gabriele C Hegerl2, (1)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, (2)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (3)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (4)University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom