Probabilistic estimates of 1.5-degree carbon budgets based on uncertainty in transient climate response and aerosol forcing

Antti-Ilari Partanen1,2, Nadine Mengis1, Jonathan Jalbert3 and Damon Matthews1, (1)Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Change, Helsinki, Finland, (3)Polytechnique Montréal, Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, Montreal, Canada