2017 Fall Meeting

11-15 December

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was established a half century ago, and has since been widely used for seismic hazard, as the basis for building codes and for seismic risk analysis. Significant improvements in both source and ground motion modeling, such as gridded smoothed seismicity models, geodetic-based strain rate informed models, time-dependent models, and regional GMPEs have been made. The use of logic trees, and other tools, has allowed modelers to combine diverse ideas to produce more informative hazard estimates. However, challenges remain. Assumptions about, for example, magnitude scaling, earthquake rates on faults, Mmax, and GMPE suitability, are necessary due to incompleteness of data, and lack of understanding and oversimplification of complex earthquake phenomena. We invite presentations that explore traditional and innovative PSHA modeling, including new databases, assumptions and uncertainties, and how they impact seismic hazard results, risk management, and decision making.