NH001:
Advances in PSHA Models, Methods, and Data





Session ID#: 22672

Session Description:
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was established a half century ago, and has since been widely used for seismic hazard, as the basis for building codes and for seismic risk analysis. Significant improvements in both source and ground motion modeling, such as gridded smoothed seismicity models, geodetic-based strain rate informed models, time-dependent models, and regional GMPEs have been made. The use of logic trees, and other tools, has allowed modelers to combine diverse ideas to produce more informative hazard estimates. However, challenges remain. Assumptions about, for example, magnitude scaling, earthquake rates on faults, Mmax, and GMPE suitability, are necessary due to incompleteness of data, and lack of understanding and oversimplification of complex earthquake phenomena. We invite presentations that explore traditional and innovative PSHA modeling, including new databases, assumptions and uncertainties, and how they impact seismic hazard results, risk management, and decision making.

Primary Convener:  Harold Magistrale, FM Global Research, Norwood, MA, United States
Conveners:  Yufang Rong, FM Global Research, Norwood, MA, United States and Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Index Terms:

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Roberto Ortega1, Edahi Gutierrez2, Dana D Carciumaru3 and Eduardo Huesca-Perez1, (1)Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education at Ensenada, Ensenada, Mexico, (2)Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education at Ensenada, La Paz, La Paz, Mexico, (3)ORBIS Consultants, La Paz, Mexico
Nino Sidamon Tsereteli1, Otar Varazanashvili1, Tatia Sharia2, Vakhtang Arabidze3, Alessandro Tibaldi4, Fabio Luca L Bonali5, Elena Russo6 and Federico Pasquaré Mariotto7, (1)Tbilisi State University Geophysics Institute, Tbilisi, Georgia, (2)Tbilisi State University Geophysics Institute, Sector of Seismology, Seismic Hazard and Disaster Risk, Tbilisi, Georgia, (3)Tbilisi State University Geophysics Institute, Seismology, Seismic hazard and Disaster Risk, Tbilisi, Georgia, (4)University of Milan-Bicocca, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milan, Italy, (5)Bicocca University, Milano, Italy, (6)University of Milan - Bicocca, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milan, Italy, (7)University of Milan - Bicocca, Milan, Italy
Yufang Rong1, Xiwei Xu2, Guihua Chen2, Jia Cheng3, Harold Magistrale1 and Zheng-Kang Shen4, (1)FM Global Research, Norwood, MA, United States, (2)Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, (3)China Earthquake Networks Center, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Aybige Akinci, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy and Bruno Pace, University of Chieti-Pescara, DiSPUTer, Pescara, Italy
Silvia Pondrelli1, Carlo Meletti2, Andrea Rovida3, Francesco Visini4, Vera D'Amico2 and Bruno Pace5, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy, (2)INGV, Pisa, Italy, (3)INGV, Sezione di Milano, Milano, Italy, (4)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L'Aquila, Italy, (5)Dipartimento di Scienze Pisicologiche, della Salute e del Territorio (DiSPUTer), Università G. d’Annunzio Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy
Maura Murru1, Giuseppe Falcone2, Matteo Taroni2 and Rodolfo Console1,3, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy, (2)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (3)Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area, Potenza, Italy
Kris Vanneste1, Seth Stein2, Thierry Camelbeeck1 and Bart Vleminckx1, (1)Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, (2)Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States
Chung-Han Chan1, Yu Wang2, Xuhua Shi3, Teraphan Ornthammarath4, Pennung Warnitchai5, Suwith Kosuwan6, Myo Thant7, Phuong Hong Nguyen8, Le Minh Nguyen9, Renato Solidum Jr.10, Masyhur Irsyam11, Sri Hidayati12 and Kerry Sieh1, (1)Nanyang Technological University, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, (2)EOS, Nanyang Technological Univ., Singapore, Singapore, (3)Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, (4)Mahidol University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bangkok, Thailand, (5)Asian Institute of Technology, Civil and Infrastructure Engineering Department, Surathani, Thailand, (6)Department of Mineral Resources, Active Fault Research Division, Bangkok, Thailand, (7)Myanmar Earthquake Committee, Yangon, Myanmar, (8)Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Institute of Geophysics, Hanoi, Vietnam, (9)VietNam Academy of Science and Technology, Institute of Geophysics, Hanoi, Vietnam, (10)Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Quezon City, Philippines, (11)Bandung Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bandung, Indonesia, (12)Geological Agency of Indonesia, Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Bandung, Indonesia
Warner Marzocchi1, Carlo Meletti2, Dario Albarello3, Vera D'Amico2, Lucia Luzi4, Francesco Martinelli5, Bruno Pace6, Maurizio Pignone7, Andrea Rovida8, Francesco Visini9 and MPS16 Working Group, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (2)INGV, Pisa, Italy, (3)University of Siena, Siena, Italy, (4)INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Milan, Italy, (5)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, Italy, (6)Dipartimento di Scienze Pisicologiche, della Salute e del Territorio (DiSPUTer), Università G. d’Annunzio Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy, (7)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy, (8)INGV, Sezione di Milano, Milano, Italy, (9)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L'Aquila, Italy
Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor and Ian Graham Main, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Issa W El Hussain, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman and Ahmed Deif, Adel M.E. Mohamed, and Mohamed Ezz Elarab
Leah Salditch1, Edward Max Brooks2, Seth Stein1, Bruce D. Spencer3 and Michael Richard Campbell1, (1)Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (2)Northwestern University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (3)Northwestern University, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States
Mark David Petersen, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO, United States and National Seismic Hazard Model Project
Richard H Styron1, Jolio Garcia1, Marco Pagani2 and GEM Hazard Team, (1)Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, Italy, (2)GEM FOUNDATION, Pavia, Italy
Scott Callaghan1, Philip J Maechling2, Christine A. Goulet2, Kevin R Milner1, Robert W Graves3, Kim Bak Olsen4, Thomas H Jordan2 and CyberShake Collaboration, (1)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, United States, (4)San Diego State Univ, San Diego, CA, United States
Edward Max Brooks1,2, Seth Stein3, Bruce D. Spencer4, Leah Salditch5, Mark David Petersen6 and Daniel E McNamara6, (1)Northwestern University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (2)Northwestern University, Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States, (3)Northwestern Univ, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (4)Northwestern University, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States, (5)Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (6)USGS, Denver, CO, United States
Jonathan Griffin1, Dan Clark2, Trevor Allen2, Hadi Ghasemi2 and Mark Leonard1, (1)Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (2)Geoscience Australia, Canberra, Australia
Céline Beauval1, Judith Mariniere2, Hugo A Yepes3, Audin Laurence4, Jean Mathieu Nocquet5, Alexandra Patricia Alvarado6, Stéphane Baize7, Jorge Aguilar8, Juan Carlos Singaucho9 and Hervé Jomard7, (1)ISTerre Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Martin d'Hères, France, (2)ISTerre - Grenoble University, Grenoble, France, (3)Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, (4)IRD, CNRS, Université Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, Grenoble, France, (5)Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD, Valbonne, France, (6)Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, (7)IRSN Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay Aux Roses Cedex, France, (8)Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Volcanología, Quito, Ecuador, (9)Sioux Falls, SD, United States
Matteo Taroni, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy and Jacopo Selva, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
Bingming Shen-Tu1, Elliot Klein2, Mehrdad Mahdyiar1, A Karakhanyan3, Marco Pagani4, Graeme Weatherill4 and Robin C Gee5, (1)AIR Worldwide Boston, Boston, MA, United States, (2)AIR-Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States, (3)Georisk, Yerevan, Armenia, (4)GEM FOUNDATION, Pavia, Italy, (5)GEM, Pavia, Italy
Philip J Maechling1, Ricardo Taborda2, Scott Callaghan1, John H Shaw3, Andreas Plesch4, Kim Bak Olsen5, Thomas H Jordan1 and Christine A. Goulet6, (1)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Center for Earthquake Research and Information, Memphis, TN, United States, (3)Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA, United States, (4)Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States, (5)San Diego State Univ, San Diego, CA, United States, (6)Pacific Earthquake Engineering Center, Berkeley, CA, United States

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