A099:
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting of High-Impact Weather and Climate Events





Session ID#: 22804

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Similarly, the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a United States interagency research project selected via a NOAA-MAPP Climate Test Bed competition to test subseasonal prediction models for National Weather Service operations. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S Project database and those contributing to SubX.
Primary Convener:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Conveners:  Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom and Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Index Terms:

3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3374 Tropical meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Trent Ford, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, IL, United States and Paul Dirmeyer, COLA, Fairfax, VA, United States
Michael J Deflorio, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States
Sujith K, Subodh Kumar Saha, Archana Rai, Samir Pokhrel, Anupam Hazra and Hemantkumar S Chaudhari, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Michael Alexander Walz, University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom, Markus Donat, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia and Gregor C Leckebusch, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Yuhei Takaya, Meteorological Research Institute, Climate Research Department, Ibaraki, Japan and Munehiko Yamaguchi, Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan
Cheng Zheng1, Edmund K M Chang1, Hye Mi Kim1, Minghua Zhang1 and Wanqiu Wang2, (1)Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, (2)NOAA, College Park, MD, United States
Benjamin Green1, Shan Sun1, Stan Benjamin2, Georg A Grell2 and Rainer Bleck1,3, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA, Boulder, CO, United States
Dave MacLeod and Tim Palmer, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
John R Gyakum1, Paul Roebber2, Lance F Bosart3, Andrea Honor2, Eric Bunker4, Yeechian Low1, Jamie Hart1, Natalia Bliankinshtein1, Allison Kolly1, Eyad Atallah1 and Yi Huang1, (1)McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States, (3)SUNY Albany, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States, (4)SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY, United States
Yaocun Zhang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Nathaniel C Johnson1, Angel G Munoz1, Gabriel A Vecchi2 and Rich Gudgel2, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Akila Sampath1, Uma Suren Bhatt2, Peter Bieniek3, Alison York4, Peitao Peng5, Brian Brettschneider6, Richard Thoman7, Randi Jandt8, Robert Ziel9, GaBriella Branson10, Ms. Heidi Strader11 and Ms. Sharon Alden11, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)Univ Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (3)Research Associate, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (4)International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (5)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (6)Postdoctoral Associate, IARC,UAF, Anchorage, AK, United States, (7)NOAA, National Weather Service, Alaska Region, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (8)Fire Ecologist, Alaska Fire Science Consortium, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (9)Fuels and Fire Analyst, Dept. Natural Resources, State of Alaska, Falmouth, MA, United States, (10)Predictive Services Intelligence Coordinator, Bureau of Land Management, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (11)Predictive Services Fire Weather Program Manager, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Yongkang Xue, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Ismaila Diallo, university of California, Los angeles, Los Angeles, United States, Wenkai Li, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, J David Neelin, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Peter C Chu, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, United States, Ratko Vasic, NOAA Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States, Yuejian Zhu, Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, Qian LI, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China and David A Robinson, Rutgers University, Department of Geography, Piscataway, NJ, United States
Eric Sinsky1, Yuejian Zhu2, Wei Li1, Hong Guan3 and Christopher Melhauser4, (1)IMSG at Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD, United States, (3)SRG at Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD, United States, (4)IMSG and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States
Yongjie Fang1, Bo Li2, Xiangwen Liu1 and Tongwen Wu1, (1)National Climate Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China, (2)National Satellite Meteorological Center of China, Beijing, China
Kun Gao1, Lucas Harris2, Jan-Huey Chen2 and Shian-Jiann Lin2, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Charlotte A DeMott, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Nicholas P Klingaman, NCAS Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Yoojin Kim, APEC Climate Center, Climate Prediction Department, Busan, South Korea, MinHo Kwon, KIOST Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan, Korea, Republic of (South) and Sae-Rim Yeo, APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)
Chia-Ying Lee, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Suzana Camargo, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Fréderic Vitart, ECMWF, Shinfield, United Kingdom, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States and Michael Tippett, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Jonathan Eden1, Bastien Dieppois1 and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh2, (1)Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom, (2)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Angel G Munoz, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, James Doss-Gollin, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, NY, United States and Max Pastén, Dirección de Meteorología e Hidrología, Asunción, Paraguay
Malaquias Peña1, Suranjana Saha1, Daryl Kleist2, Xingren Wu3 and John Woollen4, (1)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (2)National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD, United States, (3)EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Crofton, MD, United States, (4)IMSG and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, United States