S21B:
Physical Origin of Aftershocks, Foreshocks, and Multiplets in Seismology, Lab Experiments, and Across Disciplines I Posters

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Session ID#: 23074

Session Description:
The properties of individual earthquakes can be modeled, at least qualitatively, from physical principles. However, there is no unique theory for the spatio-temporal correlations observed between individual earthquakes, such as the phenomena of foreshocks and aftershocks. While the statistics are reproduced in empirical stochastic models, a unified physical understanding is missing. Different explanations have been proposed for lab and field observations, including: self-organized criticality, temporal variations of external conditions, thermal activation of stress-corrosion reactions, material and stress heterogeneity, local static and more remote dynamic triggering, and static stress relaxation such as viscoelasticity. Many models incorporate rate-and-state dependent friction to relate underlying inferred changes in stress to the observed event rates. This session aims to showcase and discuss the most recent theoretical and experimental results – based upon conceptual and numerical models, field data and lab experiments on rock fracture and friction – focusing on the physical origin of inter-event correlations.
Primary Convener:  Jordi Baro Urbea, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
Conveners:  Jörn Davidsen, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada, Sebastian Hainzl, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Potsdam, Germany and Ian Graham Main, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom
Chairs:  Jörn Davidsen1, Jordi Baro Urbea1 and Sebastian Hainzl2, (1)University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada(2)GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
OSPA Liaison:  Jordi Baro Urbea, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
Co-Organized with:
Seismology, and Nonlinear Geophysics

Cross-Listed:
  • MR - Mineral and Rock Physics
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
Index Terms:

3235 Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
4475 Scaling: spatial and temporal [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]
8163 Rheology and friction of fault zones [TECTONOPHYSICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Temporal variation of aftershocks by means of multifractal characterization of their inter-event time and cluster analysis (244059)
Angel Figueroa-Soto, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Morelia, Mexico, Ramon Zuñiga, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Centro de Geociencias, Juriquilla, Queretaro, Mexico, Victor Marquez-Ramirez, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Geociencias, Juriquilla, Queretaro, Mexico and Marisol Monterrubio-Velasco, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana Earthquake (278087)
Nicole D McMahon, Colorado State University, Geosciences Department, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Michael Stickney, Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology, Montana Tech of The University of Montana, Butte, United States, Richard C Aster, Colorado State University, Geosciences Department, Fort Collins, United States, William Yeck, USGS National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, United States, Hilary R Martens, Department of Geosciences, University of Montana, Missoula, United States and Harley Benz, USGS Central Region Offices Denver, Denver, CO, United States
Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake (271373)
Boyan Liu, Institute of Crustal Dynamics, CEA, Beijing, China
Estimating the Locations of Past and Future Large Earthquake Ruptures using Recent M4 and Greater Events (209096)
John Ebel, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States and Daniel W. Chambers, Boston College, Department of Mathematics, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
Break of slope in earthquake size distribution and creep rate along the San Andreas Fault system  (228542)
Peter Shebalin1, Clement Narteau2 and Inessa Vorobieva1, (1)International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia, (2)IPGP, Paris, France
Spatio-temporal analysis of Modified Omori law in Bayesian framework (261610)
Vahid Rezanezhad1, Clement Narteau2, Peter Shebalin3, Gert Zoeller4 and Matthias Holschneider1, (1)University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, (2)IPGP, Paris, France, (3)International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia, (4)University of Potsdam, Institute of Mathematics, Potsdam, Germany
Characteristics of aperiodic sequence of slip events caused by interaction between seismic patches and that caused be self-organized stress heterogeneity (234027)
Naoyuki Kato, University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research Institute, Bunkyo-ku, Japan
Systematic detection and classification of earthquake clusters in Italy (238846)
Piero Poli, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, Yehuda Ben-Zion, USC, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Ilya V Zaliapin, University of Nevada, Reno, Mathematics and Statistics, Reno, NV, United States
Model-free aftershock forecasts constructed from similar sequences in the past (233668)
Nicholas van der Elst, USGS, Pasadena, United States and Morgan T Page, USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States
Mainshock-Aftershocks Clustering Detection in Volcanic Regions (260408)
Ricardo GarzaGiron, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, Emily E Brodsky, University of California Santa Cruz, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States and Stephanie G Prejean, Alaska Volcano Observatory Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, United States
Effect of Coulomb stress on the Gutenberg-Richter law (231344)
Víctor Navas-Portella1, Alvaro Corral1 and Abigail Jimenez2, (1)Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Barcelona, Spain, (2)Universidad de Almería, Química y Física, Almería, Spain
Tuning critical failure with viscoelasticity: How aftershocks inhibit criticality in an analytical mean field model of fracture. (255916)
Jordi Baro Urbea and Jörn Davidsen, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
Analysis of Magnitude Correlations in a Self-Similar model of Seismicity (296056)
Andres Zambrano and Davidsen Joern, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
Aftershocks and triggering processes in rock fracture (278625)
Jörn Davidsen, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada, Grzegorz Kwiatek, Free University Berlin, Institute of Geological Sciences, Berlin, Germany, Thomas Goebel, University of California Santa Cruz, Earth and Planetary Science Department, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, Sergei A Stanchits, TerraTek A Schlumberger Co., Salt Lake City, UT, United States and Georg Dresen, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Foreshocks and Aftershocks Detected from Stick-slip Events on a 3 m Biaxial Apparatus and their Relationship to Quasistatic Nucleation and Wear Processes (208301)
Sizhao Wu and Gregory Mclaskey, Cornell University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States

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