SH21A:
Space Weather Forecasting: Science, Operations, Future Missions, Missing Information, and the Economic Case Posters

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 23441

Session Description:
Society is ever-more reliant on energy supplies and technologies proving increasingly susceptible to everyday and extreme space weather (SW) (power grids, GNSS-positioning/timing, aviation/maritime/rail, communications, etc.). The present solar cycle's SW has proven to be, perhaps surprisingly, mostly driven by solar-wind structures rather than CME events.

Following the highly-successful sessions at Fall-AGUs-2015/2016, this intends to follow-up and further expand/continue the assessment of state-of-the-art global SW forecasting capabilities and establish where additional-services/improvements are necessary to advance our SW forecast/prediction capabilities with a focus on Lagrange missions.

We solicit contributions of: provisions/justifications of suitable observations/measurements; model developments to utilize future missions' data; ongoing developments in SW forecasting; science from SW operational missions (SWFO/ESA-UK-L5/GOES/DSCOVR/etc.); and identifications of data/model gaps. We also encourage submissions that quantify the economics of SW. It is time to review the economic assessments status and identify the paths forward to further-improve the societal-economic case for SW research and operations.
Primary Convener:  Mario Mark Bisi, United Kingdom Research and Innovation - Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Didcot, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Antti A Pulkkinen, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Edward J. Oughton, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, Cambridge, United Kingdom and David F Webb, Boston College, ISR, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
Chairs:  Mark Gibbs, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom and Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Antti A Pulkkinen, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Co-Organized with:
SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics, and SPA-Magnetospheric Physics

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • P - Planetary Sciences
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • SA - SPA-Aeronomy
Index Terms:

4305 Space weather [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7594 Instruments and techniques [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7999 General or miscellaneous [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information (297995)
Stacey L Worman, Abt Associates Bethesda, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Bethesda, MD, United States, Susan Meredith Taylor, Abt Associates, Bethesda, MD, United States, Terrance G Onsager, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, Jeffery E. Adkins, NOAA, Silver Spring, United States, Daniel N Baker, University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States and Kevin F Forbes, Catholic University, Washington, DC, United States
NARX neural network Prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices for geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including recent St. Patrick's day, 2015 storm (241384)
Ankush Tukaram Bhaskar, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Geeta Vichare, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Navi Mumbai, India
First-Principles Propagation of Geoelectric Fields from Ionosphere to Ground using LANLGeoRad (226199)
Christopher Andrew Jeffery, Jesse R Woodroffe and Michael G Henderson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Characteristics of the Kp Index (224411)
William B Cade III and Courtney Turner, Baylor University, Institute for Air Science, Waco, TX, United States
Initial Efforts in Characterizing Radiation and Plasma Effects on Space Assets: Bridging the Space Environment, Engineering and User Community (215906)
Yihua Zheng1, Natalia Y Ganushkina2, Timothy B Guild3, Piers Jiggens4, Insoo Jun5, Joseph E Mazur6, Matthias M. Meier7, Joseph I Minow8, David A Pitchford9, Thomas Paul O'Brien III10, Yuri Shprits11, W Kent Tobiska12, Michael Xapsos13, Lutz Rastaetter1, Vania K Jordanova14, Adam C Kellerman15 and Mei-Ching Hannah Fok16, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, (3)The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, United States, (4)European Space Agency, ESTEC, Noordwijk, Netherlands, (5)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (6)Aerospace Corporation Chantilly, Chantilly, VA, United States, (7)German Aerospace Center, Köln, Germany, (8)NASA MSFC, Huntsville, United States, (9)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, (10)Aerospace Corp, Corpus Christi, TX, United States, (11)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (12)Space Environment Technologies, Space Systems Division, Pacific Palisades, CA, United States, (13)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (14)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (15)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, (16)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
A Heliospheric Weather Expert Service Centre for ESA's Space Situational Awareness Space Weather Activities (290356)
Christopher H Perry, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Didcot, OX11, United Kingdom, David Barnes, United Kingdom Research and Innovation - Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Didcot, United Kingdom and The H-ESC development team
One-month validation of the Space Weather Modeling Framework geospace model (296614)
John David Haiducek1, Daniel T Welling2, Natalia Y Ganushkina3, Steven Morley4 and Dogacan Su Ozturk2, (1)US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, (4)LANL, Los Alamos, United States
Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis within the Framework of the ‘HESPERIA’ HORIZON 2020 Project (279656)
Arik Posner1, Olga Malandraki2, Marlon Nunez3, Bernd Heber4, Johannes Labrenz5, Patrick Kühl6, Nikos Milas7, Georgia Tsiropoula8 and Evgenios G. Pavlos2, (1)NASA Headquarters, SMD/Heliophysics Division, Washington, DC, United States, (2)National Observatory of Athens, IAASARS, Athens, Greece, (3)Universidad de malaga, Malaga, Spain, (4)Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics, Kiel, Germany, (5)Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics, Extraterrestrial Physics, Kiel, Germany, (6)Christian Albrechts Universität Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (7)National Observatory of Athens, Athen, Greece, (8)National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
GOES-R SUVI EUV Flatfields Generated Using Boustrophedon Scans (278821)
Lawrence Shing1, Christopher Edwards1, Dnyanesh Mathur1, Gopal Vasudevan1, Margaret Shaw1 and Calvin Nwachuku2, (1)Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Palo Alto, CA, United States, (2)NOAA Satellite Operations Facility, Suitland, MD, United States
Image-based optimization of coronal magnetic field models for improved space weather forecasting (279772)
Vadim Uritsky1, Joseph M Davila1, Shaela I Jones2 and Peter J MacNeice3, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Catholic University of America, Washington, United States, (3)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States
Propagation and Interaction Properties of Successive Coronal Mass Ejections in Relation to a Complex Type II Radio Burst (210590)
Ying D. Liu, Xiaowei Zhao and Bei Zhu, NSSC National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing, China
Future Missions for Space Weather Specifications and Forecasts (232250)
Terrance G Onsager, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Douglas Alan Biesecker, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Richard A Anthes, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, COSMIC Program Office, Boulder, United States, Mark W Maier, Aerospace Corporation Chantilly, Chantilly, VA, United States, Frank W. Gallagher III, NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, OSAAP, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Karen M St. Germain, NASA Headquarters, Earth Science Division, Washington, DC, United States
The role of MEXART in the National Space Weather Laboratory of Mexico: Detection of solar wind, CMEs, ionosphere, active regions and flares. (232785)
Julio Mejia-Ambriz1, Americo Gonzalez-Esparza2, Victor De la Luz1, Pablo Villanueva-Hernandez2, Ernesto Andrade2, Ernesto Aguilar-Rodriguez2, Oyuki Chang3, Esmeralda Romero Hernandez4, Maria A Sergeeva1, Carlos Arturo Perez Alanis3 and Pedro Alberto Reyes-Marin5, (1)CONACYT - Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, LANCE, Instituto de Geofisica, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Mexico, (2)Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Mexico, (3)Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Mexico City, Mexico, (4)Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, EMBRACE, Sao Jose dos Campos, DC, Brazil, (5)Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Ciencias Fisico Matematicas, Morelia, Mexico
Validation of IPS Single-Station Analysis (SSA) Using MEXART Routines in Multi-Station Spectra. Comparison with Cross Correlation Function (CCF) Analysis. (259771)
Oyuki Chang, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Geophysics institute, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico, Mario Mark Bisi, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Harwell Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom, Americo Gonzalez-Esparza, UNAM National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico, Richard Andrew Fallows, ASTRON, The Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy, Dwingeloo, Netherlands and Ernesto Aguilar-Rodriguez, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Mexico
An Iterative Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Analysis Using Time-dependent 3-D MHD Models as Kernels (247175)
Bernard V Jackson1, Hsiu-Shan Yu2, P. Paul Hick3, Andrew Buffington3, Dusan Odstrcil4, Tae K. Kim5, Nikolai V Pogorelov6, Munetoshi Tokumaru7, Mario Mark Bisi8, Jae Hun Kim9 and Jongyeon Yun10, (1)University of California, San Diego, Astronomy and Astrophysics, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, Center for Astrophysics and Space Science, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)University of California San Diego, Astronomy and Astrophysics, La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)George Mason University, Fairfax, United States, (5)The University of Alabama in Huntsville, CSPAR, Huntsville, AL, United States, (6)University of Alabama in Huntsville, Department of Space Science, Huntsville, AL, United States, (7)Nagoya University, Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya, Japan, (8)STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Harwell Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom, (9)University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, (10)Space Environment Laboratory, 150-gil, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

See more of: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics