SH012:
Space Weather Forecasting: Science, Operations, Future Missions, Missing Information, and the Economic Case.

Panel Format Session: This session has been selected by the Program Committee to be an official panel. Panelists will be invited authors designated by the conveners. Learn more



Session ID#: 23441

Session Description:
Society is ever-more reliant on energy supplies and technologies proving increasingly susceptible to everyday and extreme space weather (SW) (power grids, GNSS-positioning / timing, aviation / maritime / rail, communications, etc.). The present solar cycle's SW has proven to be, perhaps surprisingly, mostly driven by solar-wind structures rather than CME events. Following highly-successful sessions at Fall-AGUs in 2015 and 2016, this intends to follow-up and further expand/continue the assessment of state-of-the-art global SW forecasting capabilities and establish where additional-services/improvements are necessary to advance our SW forecast/prediction capabilities with a focus on Lagrange missions. We solicit contributions of: provisions/justifications of suitable observations/measurements; model developments to utilize future missions' data; ongoing developments in SW forecasting; science from SW operational missions (SWFO / ESA-UK-L5 / GOES / DSCOVR / etc.); and identifications of data/model gaps. We also encourage submissions that quantify the economics of SW. It is time to review the economic assessments status and identify the paths forward to further-improve the societal-economic case for SW research and operations.
Primary Convener:  Mario Mark Bisi, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Harwell Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Antti A Pulkkinen, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Edward J. Oughton, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, Cambridge, United Kingdom and David F Webb, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
Co-Organized with:
SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics, and SPA-Magnetospheric Physics

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • P - Planetary Sciences
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • SA - SPA-Aeronomy
Index Terms:

4305 Space weather [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7594 Instruments and techniques [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7999 General or miscellaneous [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Curt A de Koning, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States and Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States
Robert M Robinson1, Olga Uritskaya1 and Antti A Pulkkinen2, (1)Catholic University of America, Physics, Washington, DC, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Lawrence Shing1, Christopher Edwards1, Dnyanesh Mathur1, Gopal Vasudevan1, Margaret Shaw1 and Calvin Nwachuku2, (1)Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Palo Alto, CA, United States, (2)NOAA Satellite Operations Facility, Suitland, MD, United States
Anna Chulaki1, Karin Muglach2, Yihua Zheng1, M. Leila Mays3, Maria M Kuznetsova1, Aleksandre Taktakishvili4, Yaireska M Collado-Vega3, Lutz Rastaetter1, Anne Michelle M Mendoza1, Barbara J Thompson1, Antti A Pulkkinen1 and Asher D Pembroke1, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Artep Inc., Ellicott City, MD, United States, (3)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States
Arik Posner1, Olga Malandraki2, Marlon Nunez3, Bernd Heber4, Johannes Labrenz5, Patrick Kühl6, Nikos Milas7, Georgia Tsiropoula8 and Evgenios Pavlos2, (1)NASA Headquarters, SMD/Heliophysics Division, Washington, DC, United States, (2)National Observatory of Athens, IAASARS, Athens, Greece, (3)Universidad de malaga, Malaga, Spain, (4)Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics, Kiel, Germany, (5)Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics, Extraterrestrial Physics, Kiel, Germany, (6)Christian Albrechts Universität Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (7)National Observatory of Athens, Athen, Greece, (8)National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece
Vadim M Uritsky1, Joseph M Davila2, Shaela I Jones3 and Peter J MacNeice2, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States
Pete Riley1, Jon Linker1, Michal Ben-Nun1, Tibor Torok1, Roger K Ulrich2, Christopher Russell3, Hairong Lai3, Curt A de Koning4, Victor J Pizzo4, Yang Liu5 and J Todd Hoeksema6, (1)Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Astronomy, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Stanford University, HEPL, Stanford, CA, United States, (6)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
Margaret Shaw1, Gopal Vasudevan1, Dnyanesh Mathur1, David Mansir1, Lawrence Shing1, Christopher G Edwards1, Daniel B Seaton2,3, Jonathan Darnel3,4 and Calvin Nwachuku5, (1)Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Palo Alto, CA, United States, (2)University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA Satellite Operations Facility, Suitland, MD, United States
William Floyd Rowland1, Margaret Tilton1, Robert J Redmon2, Steven J Goodman3 and Matthew Comerford4, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA NESDIS, GOES-R Program Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)JG Management Systems, Grand Junction, CO, United States
Christopher H Perry, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Didcot, OX11, United Kingdom, David Barnes, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, OX11, United Kingdom and The H-ESC development team
Elsayed R Talaat, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, United States
Syed Irfan Azeem, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States
L Roy Bonner IV, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States and Adam Schultz, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States
Dibyendu Nandy and Prantika Bhowmik, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, Kolkata, India
Mergen Alimaganbetov and Anatoly V Streltsov, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL, United States
Christopher G Edwards1, Dnyanesh Mathur1, James Randall Lemen2, Gopal Vasudevan1, Lawrence Shing1, Margaret Shaw1, David S. Sabolish1, Ralph Seguin1, Philip Tung1, Daniel B Seaton3, Jonathan Darnel4, Calvin Nwachuku5, Sivakumar Tadikonda6 and Gus Comeyne7, (1)Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Palo Alto, CA, United States, (2)Lockheed Martin Solar & Astrop, Palo Alto, CA, United States, (3)University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA Satellite Operations Facility, Suitland, MD, United States, (6)Constellation Software Engineering, Annapolis, MD, United States, (7)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Stacey L Worman, Duke University, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Durham, NC, United States, Susan Meredith Taylor, Abt Associates, Bethesda, United States, Terrance G Onsager, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, Jeffery E. Adkins, NOAA, Charleston, United States, Dan N Baker, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, CO, United States and Kevin F Forbes, Catholic University, Washington, DC, United States
Ying D. Liu, Xiaowei Zhao and Bei Zhu, NSSC National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing, China
Huidong Hu, Ying D. Liu, Rui Wang, Xiaowei Zhao, Bei Zhu and Zhongwei Yang, NSSC National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing, China
Yihua Zheng1, Natalia Y Ganushkina2, Timothy B Guild3, Piers Jiggens4, Insoo Jun5, Joseph E Mazur6, Matthias M. Meier7, Joseph I Minow8, David A Pitchford9, Thomas Paul O'Brien III10, Yuri Shprits11, W Kent Tobiska12, Michael Xapsos1, Lutz Rastaetter1, Vania K Jordanova13, Adam C Kellerman14 and Mei-Ching Hannah Fok15, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, (3)The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA, United States, (4)European Space Agency, ESTEC, Noordwijk, Netherlands, (5)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (6)Aerospace Corporation Chantilly, Chantilly, VA, United States, (7)German Aerospace Center, Köln, Germany, (8)NASA MSFC, Huntsville, AL, United States, (9)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, (10)Aerospace Corp, Corpus Christi, TX, United States, (11)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (12)Space Environment Technologies, Pacific Palisades, CA, United States, (13)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Science and Applications, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (14)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, (15)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Douglas Alan Biesecker, NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, Terrance G Onsager, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States and Robert Rutledge, NOAA/NWS/SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States
Krishna Khanal and Binod Adhikari, St. Xavier's College, Kathmandu, Nepal
Christopher Andrew Jeffery, Jesse R Woodroffe and Michael G Henderson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Mario Mark Bisi1, Richard Andrew Fallows2, Bernard V Jackson3, Munetoshi Tokumaru4, Americo Gonzalez-Esparza5, John Morgan6, I. V. Chashei7, Julio Mejia-Ambriz8, S. A. Tyul'bashev7, P K Manoharan9, Victor De la Luz8, Ernesto Aguilar-Rodriguez10, Hsiu-Shan Yu3, David Barnes1, Oyuki Chang5, Dusan Odstrcil11,12, Ken\'ichi Fujiki13 and Vladimir Shishov7, (1)STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Harwell Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom, (2)ASTRON, the Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy, Dwingeloo, Netherlands, (3)University of California San Diego, Center for Astrophysics and Space Science, La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan, (5)Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México, SCiESMEX, Instituto de Geofísica, Unidad Michoacán, Morelia, Mexico, (6)Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia, (7)Lebedev Physical Institute, Pushchino Radio Astronomy Observatory, Moscow, Russia, (8)CONACYT - Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, LANCE, Instituto de Geofisica, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Mexico, (9)National Centre for Radio Astrophysics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Pune, India, (10)Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México, Instituto de Geofísica, Unidad Michoacán, Morelia, Mexico, (11)George Mason University Fairfax, Computational and Data Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States, (12)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (13)Nagoya University, Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya, Japan
Chi Wang, NSSC National Space Science Center, CAS, Beijing, China
Elena Ivannikova1, Mikhail Kruglyakov1, Alexey V Kuvshinov2, Lutz Rastaetter3, Antti A Pulkkinen3 and Chigomezyo Mudala Ngwira4, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, Zurich, Switzerland, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States
Terrance G Onsager1, Douglas Alan Biesecker2, Richard A Anthes3, Mark W Maier4, Frank W. Gallagher III5 and Karen St. Germain5, (1)NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, COSMIC, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Aerospace Corporation Chantilly, Chantilly, VA, United States, (5)NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Julio Mejia-Ambriz1, Americo Gonzalez-Esparza2, Victor De la Luz1, Pablo Villanueva-Hernandez3, Ernesto Andrade3, Ernesto Aguilar-Rodriguez3, Oyuki Chang4, Esmeralda Romero Hernandez5, Maria A Sergeeva1, Carlos Arturo Perez Alanis4 and Pedro Alberto Reyes-Marin6, (1)CONACYT - Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, LANCE, Instituto de Geofisica, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Mexico, (2)Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, LANCE, Instituto de Geofisica, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Mexico, (3)Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Mexico, (4)Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Mexico City, Mexico, (5)Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, EMBRACE, Sao Jose dos Campos, DC, Brazil, (6)Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Ciencias Fisico Matematicas, Morelia, Mexico
Mark Gibbs, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, Edward J. Oughton, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Michael A Hapgood, RAL Space and STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, United Kingdom
Ankush Tukaram Bhaskar, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Geeta Vichare, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, UAS, Navi Mumbai, India
Bernard V Jackson1, Hsiu-Shan Yu2, P. Paul Hick2, Andrew Buffington2, Dusan Odstrcil3, Tae K. Kim4, Nikolai V Pogorelov5, Munetoshi Tokumaru6, Mario Mark Bisi7, Jaehun Kim8 and Jongyeon Yun9, (1)University of California San Diego, Center for Astrophysics and Space Science, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)George Mason University Fairfax, Computational and Data Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States, (4)Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, CSPAR, Madison, AL, United States, (5)University of Alabama in Huntsville, Department of Space Science, Huntsville, AL, United States, (6)Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan, (7)STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Harwell Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom, (8)Korean Space Weather Center, Jeju-Si, Korea, Republic of (South), (9)Space Environment Laboratory, 150-gil, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
Jang Suk Choi, Korean Space Weather Center, Jeju-Si, Korea, Republic of (South)
Oyuki Chang, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Geophysics institute, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico, Mario Mark Bisi, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Harwell Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom, Americo Gonzalez-Esparza, UNAM National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico, Richard Andrew Fallows, ASTRON, the Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy, Dwingeloo, Netherlands and Ernesto Aguilar-Rodriguez, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Maria M Kuznetsova, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Daniel Heynderickz, DH Consultancy, Leuven, Belgium, Manuel Grande, Univ Wales Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, United Kingdom and Hermann J Opgenoorth, IRF Swedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden
Iver Hugh Cairns, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Joachim Matthias Schmidt, State College, PA, United States, Nat Gopalswamy, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Bart van der Holst, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Stacey L Worman1, Susan Meredith Taylor2, Terrance G Onsager3, Jeffery E. Adkins4, Daniel N Baker5, Kevin F Forbes6, Dan Basoli7 and Olivia Griot7, (1)Duke University, Durham, NC, United States, (2)Abt Associates, Bethesda, United States, (3)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)NOAA, Charleston, United States, (5)LASP, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Catholic University, Washington, DC, United States, (7)Abt Associates, Cambridge, MA, United States