GC073:
The rocky road to 1.5 degrees: (re)evaluating the Paris targets





Session ID#: 23753

Session Description:
Two years after COP21, many things have evolved. The Paris agreement entered into force, the IPCC took up the task of a special assessment report on the 1.5 degree C warming level for which the research community has run simulations, studied projections and impacts and evaluated current commitments in the context of identified mitigation requirements. Meanwhile, the commitment of the world’s second major emitter to its mitigation targets is being debated, calling into question the robustness of the agreement as a whole.

We seek contributions spanning this wide range of aspects, in the hope of creating a wide and rich perspective on the low temperature target commitments.  We encourage studies on impacts and avoided impacts, mitigation requirements, and the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 or 2 degree C temperature goals in the light of societal or technological obstacles.

Primary Convener:  Benjamin M Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Convener:  Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Index Terms:

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Robert Pincus, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Thorsten Mauritsen, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Simone Russo, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra Vey, Italy, Jana Sillmann, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway and Andreas Sterl, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Michael E Mann1, Andrew P Schurer2, Ed Hawkins3, Simon FB Tett4 and Gabriele C Hegerl2, (1)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, (2)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (3)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (4)University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom
Stephen E Schwartz, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States
Peter A Turner1, Christopher B Field2, David B Lobell2, Daniel Sanchez1 and Katharine J Mach2, (1)Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, Stanford, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
Michael F Wehner, Dáithí A Stone, Burlen Loring and Hari Krishnan, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany, Jeffrey P Donnelly, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA, United States and Kevin J Anchukaitis, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Jan Sigurd Fuglestvedt, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, Joeri Rogelj, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Richard Millar, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, Myles Robert Allen, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom, Olivier Boucher, LMD, Paris Cedex 05, France, Piers Forster, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany and Drew T Shindell, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
Vivian Scott, University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, Simon FB Tett, University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom and Matthew Brander, University of Edinburgh, Business School, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Reto Knutti, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland and Alex Armbruster, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States
Robert Fofrich, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, Christine Shearer, CoalSwarm, San Francisco, CA, United States and Steven J Davis, University California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
Brian C O'Neill1, Brooke Anderson2, Andrew J Monaghan3, Xiaolin Ren3, Ben Sanderson4 and Claudia Tebaldi4, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Chris Derksen1, Lawrence Mudryk1, Stephen Howell2, Gregory M Flato3, John C Fyfe4, Nathan P Gillett5, Michael Sigmond4, Paul J Kushner6, Jackie Dawson7, Francis W Zwiers8, Don Lemmen9, Claude R Duguay10, Xuebin Zhang2, Christopher G Fletcher11 and Stephen J Dery12, (1)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON, Canada, (2)Environment Canada Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, (3)Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada, (4)Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada, (5)CCCma, Victoria, BC, Canada, (6)University of Toronto, Physics, Toronto, ON, Canada, (7)University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada, (8)University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada, (9)Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada, (10)H2O Geomatics, Waterloo, ON, Canada, (11)University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, (12)UNBC, Prince George, BC, Canada
Joeri Rogelj, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
DJ Rasmussen1, Maya K Buchanan1, Robert E Kopp2 and Michael Oppenheimer3, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (3)Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States
Douglas G MacMartin, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, Katharine Ricke, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States and David Keith, Harvard University, Engineering and Applied Sciences and Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA, United States
Stephan Thober1, Rohini Kumar1, Niko Wanders2, Andreas Marx1, Ming Pan2, Oldrich Rakovec1, Luis E. Samaniego3, Justin Sheffield4, Eric F Wood4 and Matthias Zink5, (1)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany, (2)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, (4)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (5)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Felipe Feijoo, Pontifical Catholic University of Valparaíso, School of Industrial Engineering, Valparaiso, Chile; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, James Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, Marshall A Wise, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States, Bryan Mignone, ExxonMobil Annandale, Research and Engineering Company., Annandale, NJ, United States and Haroon S Kheshgi, ExxonMobil Annandale, Corporate Strategic Research, Annandale, NJ, United States
Scott J Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund DC, Washington, DC, United States and Monika J Barcikowska, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY, United States
Andrew King, Melbourne, Australia
Erich M Fischer1, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner2 and Peter Pfleiderer2, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany
Kyle Armour1, Cristian Proistosescu2, Gerard Roe1 and Peter J Huybers3, (1)University of Washington, Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Thomas Gasser, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, Olivier Boucher, LMD, Paris Cedex 05, France, Franck Lecocq, CIRED Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Nogent-sur-Marne, France and Michael Obersteiner, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
David B Reusch, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Socorro, NM, United States
Kirsten Zickfeld, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada and Deven Azevedo, Simon Fraser University, Geography, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal1,2, Sebastian K. Herzog3, Maria Elena Guitierrez Lagoueyte2, Daniel Gonzalez-Duque2, Juanita Cuevas-Moreno2, Jorge Ignacio del Valle4, Laia Andreu-Hayles5,6, David Andrés Herrera7 and Rodney Martínez8, (1)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Antioquia School of Engineering - Colombia, Environmental Engineering Program, Envigado, Colombia, (3)Asociación Armonía, Santa Cruz, Bolivia, (4)Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Medellin, Colombia, (5)Columbia University of New York, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Palisades, NY, United States, (6)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (7)Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Medellín, Colombia, (8)Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Sonia I Seneviratne1, Richard Wartenburger1, Martha Vogel1, Annette Hirsch1, Benoit Guillod1, Markus Donat2, Andrew John Pitman2, Edouard Davin1, Peter Greve3 and Martin Hirschi1, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (3)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Damon Matthews, Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada
Xinru Li, Kirsten Zickfeld, Katarzyna Tokarska and Karen Elizabeth Kohfeld, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada