GC53A:
The Rocky Road to 1.5 Degrees: (Re)evaluating the Paris Targets II Posters

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 23753

Session Description:
Two years after COP21, many things have evolved. The Paris agreement entered into force, the IPCC took up the task of a special assessment report on the 1.5 degree C warming level for which the research community has run simulations, studied projections and impacts and evaluated current commitments in the context of identified mitigation requirements. Meanwhile, the commitment of the world’s second major emitter to its mitigation targets is being debated, calling into question the robustness of the agreement as a whole.

We seek contributions spanning this wide range of aspects, in the hope of creating a wide and rich perspective on the low temperature target commitments. We encourage studies on impacts and avoided impacts, mitigation requirements, and the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 or 2 degree C temperature goals in the light of societal or technological obstacles.

Primary Convener:  Benjamin M Sanderson, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Convener:  Claudia Tebaldi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
Chairs:  Benjamin M Sanderson, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway and Claudia Tebaldi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Claudia Tebaldi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
6304 Benefit-cost analysis [POLICY SCIENCES]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Committed warming inferred from observations and an energy balance model (207886)
Robert Pincus, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States and Thorsten Mauritsen, Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm, Sweden
When will we reach 1.5 of global warming? (298435)
Damon Matthews, Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada
Overshoot and Non-Overshoot Pathways to 1.5oC and Above: The Temperature Tunnel (265696)
Felipe Feijoo, Pontifical Catholic University of Valparaíso, School of Industrial Engineering, Valparaiso, Chile; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, James Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, Marshall A Wise, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, United States, Bryan Mignone, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ, United States and Haroon S Kheshgi, ExxonMobil Annandale, Corporate Strategic Research, Annandale, NJ, United States
Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India (243465)
Robert Fofrich, University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States, Christine Shearer, CoalSwarm, San Francisco, CA, United States and Steven J Davis, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels (212516)
Simone Russo, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra Vey, Italy, Jana Sillmann, Universtiy of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany and Andreas Sterl, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice (243927)
Chris Derksen1, Lawrence Mudryk2, Stephen Howell3, Gregory M Flato4, John C Fyfe5, Nathan P Gillett6, Michael Sigmond5, Paul J Kushner7, Jackie Dawson8, Don Lemmen9, Francis W Zwiers10, Xuebin Zhang3, Claude R Duguay11, Christopher G Fletcher12 and Stephen J Dery13, (1)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Reseach Division, Toronto, ON, Canada, (2)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON, Canada, (3)Environment Canada Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, (4)Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada, (5)Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada, (6)CCCma, Victoria, BC, Canada, (7)University of Toronto, Physics, Toronto, ON, Canada, (8)University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada, (9)Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada, (10)University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada, (11)H2O Geomatics, Waterloo, ON, Canada, (12)University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, (13)UNBC, Prince George, BC, Canada
Greenland in Warm (1.5 °C) and Warmer (RCP 8.5) Worlds: The Influence of the Paris Agreement on Ice Sheet Surface Melting (290365)
David B Reusch, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Socorro, NM, United States
The Great Plains low-level jet in 1.5C and 2C HAPPI simulations: Implications for changes in extreme climate events (272744)
Scott J Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund DC, Washington, DC, United States and Monika J Barcikowska, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY, United States
Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming (254701)
Stephan Thober, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany, Rohini Kumar, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany, Niko Wanders, Utrecht University, Physical Geography, Utrecht, Netherlands, Andreas Marx, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany, Ming Pan, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, Oldrich Rakovec, Czech University of Life Sciences, Water Resources and Environmental Modelling, Prague, Czech Republic, Luis Samaniego, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, Justin Sheffield, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom, Eric F Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Matthias Zink, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Tropical Andean ecosystems and the need to keep warming limits below a +1.5°C threshold (293585)
Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal1,2, Sebastian K. Herzog3, Maria Elena Guitierrez Lagoueyte4, Daniel Gonzalez-Duque5, Juanita Cuevas-Moreno2, Jorge Ignacio del Valle6, Laia Andreu-Hayles7,8, David Andrés Herrera9 and Rodney Martínez10, (1)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Antioquia School of Engineering - Colombia, Environmental Engineering Program, Envigado, Colombia, (3)Asociación Armonía, Santa Cruz, Bolivia, (4)Programa en Ingeniería Ambiental, Universidad EIA, Envigado, Colombia, (5)The Ohio State University, School of Earth Sciences, Columbus, United States, (6)Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Medellin, Colombia, (7)ICREA, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, CREAF, Center for Ecological research and Forestry Applications, Barcelona, Spain, (8)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (9)Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Medellín, Colombia, (10)Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño, Guayaquil, Ecuador
The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes (293669)
Sonia I Seneviratne1, Richard Wartenburger1, Martha Vogel1, Annette Hirsch1, Benoit Guillod1, Markus Donat2, Andrew John Pitman3, Edouard Davin1, Peter Greve4 and Martin Hirschi5, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (3)University of New South Wales, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (4)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (5)Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios (300475)
Xinru Li1, Kirsten Zickfeld1, Katarzyna B Tokarska2 and Karen Elizabeth Kohfeld3, (1)Simon Fraser University, Geography, Burnaby, BC, Canada, (2)University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (3)Simon Fraser University, School of Resource and Environmental Management and School of Environmental Science, Burnaby, Canada
Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets (232777)
Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany, Jeffrey P Donnelly, WHOI, Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, United States and Kevin J. Anchukaitis, University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ, United States

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