NH41B:
Wicked Problems and Deep Uncertainties: Tough Challenges in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation II Posters

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 23917

Session Description:
Natural disasters claim lives and cause billions of dollars of losses around the world. Assessing and mitigating these hazards challenges societies with "wicked" problems, in which crucial information is missing and proposed solutions involve complex interactions with other societal goals. For example: How should we prepare for a great earthquake in areas where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How can we assess the hazard when the recurrence of large earthquakes, floods, or hurricanes is changing with time or is expected to do so? This session delves into the scientific and business issues, utilizing state‐of‐the‐art methods and advanced analytics for better understanding, quantification, and management of natural hazards and risks. We invite contributions from disciplines including hydrology, atmospheric sciences, seismology, computer sciences, machine learning, insurance and risk management.
Primary Convener:  Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States
Conveners:  Michael S Steckler, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Hamed Ashouri, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States and Upmanu Lall, Columbia University of New York, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
Chairs:  Hamed Ashouri, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States and Michael S Steckler, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Upmanu Lall, Columbia University of New York, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
Co-Organized with:
Natural Hazards, Geodesy, and Tectonophysics

Cross-Listed:
  • G - Geodesy
  • S - Seismology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
  • T - Tectonophysics
Index Terms:

4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

A Probabilistic Typhoon Risk Model for Vietnam (299290)
Annes Haseemkunju, David F Smith and Justin M Brolley, CoreLogic, Catastrophe Model Development, Oakland, CA, United States
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan (216292)
Kenji Hirata1, Hiroyuki Fujiwara2, Hiromitsu Nakamura3, Masaki Osada2, Tatsuo Ohsumi3, Nobuyuki Morikawa4, Shin'ichi Kawai3, Takahiro Maeda2, Hisanori Matsuyama5, Nobuhiko Toyama6, Tadashi Kito6, Yasuhiro Murata7, Ryu Saito7, Junpei Takayama7, Shinichi Akiyama8, Mariko Korenaga8, Yuta Abe8, Norihiko Hashimoto8 and Tomoya Hakamata9, (1)National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)NIED, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)NIED, Tsukuba Ibaraki, Japan, (5)OYO Corporation, Saitama, Japan, (6)OYO Corporation, Tsukuba, Japan, (7)KOKUSAI KOGYO CO., LTD, Tokyo, Japan, (8)ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, Chiyoda-ku, Japan, (9)ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, Tokyo, Japan

See more of: Natural Hazards