NH024:
Wicked Problems and Deep Uncertainties: Tough Challenges in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation





Session ID#: 23917

Session Description:
Natural disasters claim lives and cause billions of dollars of losses around the world. Assessing and mitigating these hazards challenges societies with "wicked" problems, in which crucial information is missing and proposed solutions involve complex interactions with other societal goals. For example: How should we prepare for a great earthquake in areas where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How can we assess the hazard when the recurrence of large earthquakes, floods, or hurricanes is changing with time or is expected to do so? This session delves into the scientific and business issues, utilizing state‐of‐the‐art methods and advanced analytics for better understanding, quantification, and management of natural hazards and risks. We invite contributions from disciplines including hydrology, atmospheric sciences, seismology, computer sciences, machine learning, insurance and risk management.
Primary Convener:  Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States
Conveners:  Michael S Steckler, Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Hamed Ashouri, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States and Upmanu Lall, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, NY, United States
Co-Organized with:
Natural Hazards, Geodesy, and Tectonophysics

Cross-Listed:
  • G - Geodesy
  • S - Seismology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
  • T - Tectonophysics
Index Terms:

4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

John B Rundle, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States
Aylin Çelik, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, Shaghayegh Karimzadeh, Middle East Technical University, Civil Engineering, Ankara, Turkey and Aysegul Askan, Middle East Technical Univ, Ankara, Turkey
Mark D Powell, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Kenneth W Hudnut, USGS Pasadena Field Office, Pasadena, CA, United States, Anne M Wein, U. S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Dale A Cox, U.S. Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, United States, Suzanne C Perry, USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States, Keith Porter, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Laurie A. Johnson, Laurie Johnson Consulting | Research, San Francisco, CA, United States and Jennifer Ann Strauss, UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Max Wyss1, Sushil Gupta2, Philippe Rosset1 and Deepak Chamlagain3, (1)ICES International Centre for Earth Simulation Foundation, Geneva, Switzerland, (2)Risk Modeling and Insurance Division, RMSI Private Limited, Earthquake Risk, Noida, India, (3)Tribhuvan University, Department of Geology, Tri-Chandra College, Kathmandu, Nepal
Kenji Hirata1, Hiroyuki Fujiwara2, Hiromitsu Nakamura3, Masaki Osada2, Tatsuo Ohsumi3, Nobuyuki Morikawa4, Shin'ichi Kawai3, Takahiro Maeda2, Hisanori Matsuyama5, Nobuhiko Toyama6, Tadashi Kito6, Yasuhiro Murata7, Ryu Saito7, Junpei Takayama7, Shinichi Akiyama8, Mariko Korenaga8, Yuta Abe8, Norihiko Hashimoto8 and Tomoya Hakamata9, (1)National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)NIED, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)NIED, Tsukuba Ibaraki, Japan, (5)OYO Corporation, Tokyo, Japan, (6)OYO Corporation, Tsukuba, Japan, (7)KOKUSAI KOGYO CO., LTD, Tokyo, Japan, (8)ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, Chiyoda-ku, Japan, (9)ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, Tokyo, Japan
Shane J Cronin, University of Auckland, School of Environment, Auckland, New Zealand; GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Director - Resilience to Nature's Challenges - National Science Challenge, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Vladimir G Kossobokov1,2 and Anastasia Nekrasova1, (1)Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, (2)International Seismic Safety Organization, Arsita, Italy
Viktor Roezer1, Heidi Kreibich1, Kai Schroeter1, James Doss-Gollin2, Upmanu Lall2 and Bruno Merz1, (1)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany, (2)Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, NY, United States
Syed Humayun Akhter1, Michael S Steckler2, Seth Stein3 and Leonardo Seeber2, (1)University of Dhaka, Department of Geology, Dhaka, Bangladesh, (2)Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States
Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States, Michael S Steckler, Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, John B Rundle, UC Davis, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Davis, CA, United States and Timothy H Dixon, Univ of South Florida, Tampa, FL, United States
Raffaele Albano1, Aurelia Sole1, Leonardo Mancusi2, Andrea Cantisani1 and Antonio Perrone1, (1)University of Basilicata, School of Engineering, Potenza, Italy, (2)Research on Energy System, Sustainable Development and Energy Resources Department, Milano, Italy
Anna Lo Jacomo, University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Dawei Han, University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom and Alan Champneys, University of Bristol, Engineering Mathematics, Bristol, United Kingdom
Kelly Klima, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, United States and Lobna El Gammal, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Annes Haseemkunju, David F Smith and Justin M Brolley, CoreLogic, Catastrophe Model Development, Oakland, CA, United States

See more of: Natural Hazards