GC010:
Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Goals and How to Meet Them





Session ID#: 23954

Session Description:
It has long been known that all-time cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are the primary driver of long-term climate change. However, uncertainty persists over the allowable remaining cumulative emissions consistent with limiting warming to levels compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement, particularly when temporary overshoots in warming, uncertainty in future non-CO2 climate forcing and negative emissions technologies are considered. Meeting potentially small remaining carbon budgets, as well as dealing with uncertainty in their magnitude, poses substantial policy challenges due to socio-economic inertia in the rate at which future emissions trajectories can be adjusted. This session presents contributions focused on our physical understanding of the remaining carbon budget for meeting ambitious climate goals, economic, technological and policy implications of meeting such ambitious carbon budgets, and interdisciplinary assessments of this inherrently multi-disciplinary issue.
Primary Convener:  Richard Millar, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom; University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Kirsten Zickfeld, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada and Steven J Davis, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

William Collins, University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, Christopher Webber, University of Reading, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom, Peter Michael Cox, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Chris Huntingford, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom, Jason A. Lowe, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom and Stephen Sitch, University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter, United Kingdom
Nadine Mengis1, Jonathan Jalbert2, Antti-Ilari Partanen1 and Damon Matthews1, (1)Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Polytechnique Montréal, Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, Montreal, Canada
Jongyeol Lee1, Moonil Kim1, Yowhan Son1 and Woo-Kyun Lee2, (1)Korea University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
Katharine J Mach, Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States and Christopher B Field, Stanford University, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, CA, United States
Joeri Rogelj, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Antti-Ilari Partanen1,2, Nadine Mengis1, Jonathan Jalbert3 and Damon Matthews1, (1)Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Change, Helsinki, Finland, (3)Polytechnique Montréal, Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, Montreal, Canada
Edward Comyn-Platt1, Garry Hayman2, Sarah Chadburn3, Chris Huntingford2, Anna B Harper4, Peter Michael Cox3, William Collins5, Eleanor Burke4 and Christopher Webber6, (1)Center for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom, (2)Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom, (3)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, (6)University of Reading, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom
Rin Kokubo, Meiji University, Kawasaki, Japan
Kristina Rolph, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States and Chris E Forest, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States
Richard Millar, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom and Myles Robert Allen, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom
Pankaj Kumar, Trupti Mishra and Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
Markus Bill1, Mark E Conrad2, Harry R Beller1, Nicholas Bouskill2, Eoin Brodie1, Wendy Brown3, Rosemary W H Carroll4, Yongman Kim5, Peter S Nico6, Patrick Oliver Sorensen7, Tetsu K Tokunaga2, Jiamin Wan2 and Kenneth Hurst Williams8, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Gothic, United States, (4)Desert Research Institute, Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Reno, NV, United States, (5)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Earth Science Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (6)Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (7)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (8)Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States
Mehdi Kechiar1, Thomas Gasser1, Thomas Kleinen2, Philippe Ciais3, Ye Huang4, Eleanor Burke5 and Michael Obersteiner6, (1)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (2)MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (3)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (4)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Julie Witcover, University of California - Davis, Davis, CA, United States
Jeremy Turk1, Dave Reay2 and Stuart Haszeldine2, (1)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom, (2)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom