SH003:
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Retrospective





Session ID#: 25018

Session Description:
Long-range predictions of solar activity are essential to our Space Weather forecast capability. But we should also examine how well the predictions fared. Solar Cycle 24 was a below-average cycle. There were peaks in the sunspot number in the Northern hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern in 2014. One set of 105 predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 had values ranging from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle.  Some questions this session would address include: How did predictions of Solar Cycle 24 compare with the actual cycle? What have we learned that can help constrain future predictions? Papers addressing the success and failure of predictions of Solar Cycle 24 are solicited for this special session.
Primary Convener:  William Dean Pesnell, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Conveners:  Douglas Alan Biesecker, NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States and Lisa Upton, Space Systems Research Corporation, Alexandria, VA, United States
Index Terms:

7536 Solar activity cycle [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Lisa Upton, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States and David H. Hathaway, Retired, San Jose, CA, United States
William Dean Pesnell, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Kenneth H. Schatten, a.i. solutions, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
Frederic Clette and Laure Lefevre, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Nipa Jishnu Bhatt, Ahmedabad, India and Rajmal Jain, Kadi Sarva Vishwavidyalaya, Research Cell, Gandhinagar, India
Masashi Fujiyama, Shinsuke Imada, Haruhisa Iijima and Shinobu Machida, Nagoya University, Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya, Japan
Andres Munoz-Jaramillo, SouthWest Research Institute, Boulder, CO, United States
Scott William Mcintosh, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States