B032:
Forecasting: Advances and opportunities in the biogeosciences





Session ID#: 25537

Session Description:
How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future? How do human decisions affect this trajectory?  In a world facing rapid environmental change, these are the most pressing questions facing the biogeosciences. These are also fundamentally questions about forecasting. Due to advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress in making the biogesciences more predictive. Furthermore, a forecasting approach will not only improve the biogeosciences more quickly, but will make it more relevant to society. That said, there are many conceptual and technical challenges to improving our ability to make predictions, such as the need for improvements in theories and models, data assimilation, targeted reductions in data deficiencies, and the quantification, propagation, and analysis of uncertainties. This session aims to highlight cutting-edge forecasting research in biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, and ecology across both terrestrial and aquatic systems. 
Primary Convener:  Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
Conveners:  Andrew M Fox, University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, Tucson, AZ, United States and Jason S McLachlan, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Shuang MA1, Yuanyuan Huang2,3, Mark Stacy4, Jiang Jiang3,5, Nilutpal Sundi6, Daniel M Ricciuto7, Paul J Hanson7, Yiqi Luo3,8 and Volodymyr Saruta3, (1)Northern Arizona University, The Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (2)Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Paris, France, (3)Northern Arizona University, The Center for Ecosystem Science and Society at NAU, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (4)University of Oklahoma Information Technology, Norman, United States, (5)Nanjing Forestry University, Department of Soil and Water Conservation, Nanjing, China, (6)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Department of Computer Science, Norman, OK, United States, (7)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (8)Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China
A. Anthony Bloom1, Junjie Liu1, Kevin W Bowman2, Alexandra G Konings3, Sassan Saatchi4, John R Worden1, Helen Marie Worden5, Zhe Jiang6, Nick Parazoo7, Mathew Dr Williams8 and David Schimel4, (1)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)JPL / Caltech, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)Stanford University, Department of Earth Sciences, Stanford, CA, United States, (4)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (8)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Anthony Gardella1, Elizabeth (Betsy) Cowdery1, Martin Gerard De Kauwe2, Ankur R Desai3, Matthew Duveneck4, Istem Fer5, Rosie Fisher6, Ryan G Knox7, Rob Kooper8, David LeBauer9, Tess McCabe1, Francesco Minunno10, Ann Raiho11, Shawn Serbin12, Alexey N Shiklomanov1, Anne Thomas13, Anthony Walker14, Michael Dietze1 and PEcAn Team, (1)Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, (2)Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, (3)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (4)Harvard University, Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA, United States, (5)Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (8)National Center for Super Computing Applications, Urbana, IL, United States, (9)Energy Biosciences Institute, Urbana, IL, United States, (10)University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, (11)University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States, (12)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Environmental & Climate Sciences Department, Upton, NY, United States, (13)Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, United States, (14)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Elias Charbel Massoud, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, Jef Huisman, University of Amsterdam, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, Amsterdam, Netherlands, Elisa Benincà, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, Netherlands, Willem Bouten, University of Amsterdam, Institute for Advanced Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands and Jasper A Vrugt, UC-Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
Owen M Doherty1, Christopher Gobler2, Theresa K Hattenrath-Lehmann3, Andrew William Griffith4, Timothy W Davis5 and Yoonja Kang2, (1)Eagle Rock Analytics, Sacramento, CA, United States, (2)Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, (3)Wadsworth Center, Albany, NY, United States, (4)Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Southampton, NY, United States, (5)Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, United States
Minjun Sung, Korea University, Environmental Science & Ecological Plannings, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Jinhoo Hwang, Alexandria, VA, United States, Raeik Jang, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea and Seong-Woo Jeon, Korea university, Seoul Special City, South Korea
Jacob A Zwart, USGS Wisconsin Water Science Center, Middleton, WI, United States, Oleksandra Hararuk, Natural Resources Canada - Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC, Canada, Yves Prairie, Groupe de Recherche Interuniversitaire en Limnologie, Département des Sciences Biologiques, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada, Chris Solomon, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States and Stuart Jones, University of Notre Dame, Biological Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States
Takeshi Ise, Mari Minagawa and Masanori Onishi, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Polly Buotte1, Beverly Elizabeth Law1 and Tara W Hudiburg2, (1)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)University of Idaho, Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences, Moscow, ID, United States
Leander DL Anderegg, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Logan T. Berner, Northern Arizona University, School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, Grayson Badgley, Carnegie Institution for Science, Global Ecology, Stanford, CA, United States, Janneke Hillerislambers, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Biology, Seattle, WA, United States and Beverly Elizabeth Law, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Amber C Churchill, University of Western Sydney, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Richmond, Australia, Aidan Beers, University of Colorado at Boulder, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Boulder, CO, United States, Josh Grinath, University of Colorado at Boulder, INSTAAR, Boulder, CO, United States and William D Bowman, Washington, DC, United States

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