GC020:
Climate variability and change on decadal to multi-decadal timescales





Session ID#: 25916

Session Description:
Uncertainty in the trajectory of global mean surface temperature in the coming several decades due to internal climate variability is higher than the uncertainty from emissions scenarios. This has placed decadal climate variability and prediction firmly in the spotlight. It is crucial that we observe, model and predict the climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales and better understand the roles of internal and external climate forcing.

However, our understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability is limited by short and sparse observational records, differences in models, discrepancies between palaeoclimate reconstructions, and dynamical theories that have, at best, only partial scientific consensus. A complete understanding of decadal scale variability is likely to come from advances across atmospheric science, oceanography and palaeoclimatology.  

This interdisciplinary session will bring together our latest understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability and will discuss recent advances in understanding mechanisms, patterns, impacts and predictability on decadal timescales.

Primary Convener:  Benjamin Henley, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Convener:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:

4513 Decadal ocean variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4916 Corals [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
4920 Dendrochronology [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Atul Saini, University of Delhi, Delhi, India
Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, Olivier Boucher, LMD, Paris Cedex 05, France, Andrew Colman, Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom and David E Parker, Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, EX1, United Kingdom
Ivica Vilibic1, Melita Peharda1, Tomislav Dzoic1, Kresimir Markulin1, Natalija Dunic1, Hrvoje Mihanovic1, Miroslav Gacic2, Bryan Black3, Hana Uvanovic1, Daria Ezgeta-Balic1, Jadranka Sepic1, Zarko Kovac1 and Ivan Zupan4, (1)Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia, (2)Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS, Trieste, Italy, (3)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, (4)University of Zadar, Zadar, Croatia
Richard P Allan, Caroline M Dunning and Emily Black, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Patrick T Brown, Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, Stanford, CA, United States, Yi Ming, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Wenhong Li, Duke Univ-Nicholas School, Durham, NC, United States and Spencer A Hill, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Heather Vazquez, Florida International University, Miami, FL, United States and Robert Burgman, FIU-Earth & Environment, Miami, FL, United States
Daniel A Bishop1,2, Park Williams1, Richard Seager1, Arlene M Fiore1,2, Benjamin Cook1,3, Justin S Mankin1,3, Deepti Singh1, Jason E Smerdon1 and Mukund Palat Rao1,2, (1)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Columbia University of New York, Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
Rosemary Eade, Adam A Scaife, Doug Smith, Nick J Dunstone, Craig MacLachlan, Leon Hermanson and Comer Ruth, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Lauren Kuntz, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States and Daniel P Schrag, Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA, United States
Boyin Huang1, Peter Thorne2, Patria Viva F Banzon3, Gennady A Chepurin4, Jay H Lawrimore5, Matthew J Menne6, Russell S Vose7, Thomas M Smith8 and Huai-Min Zhang5, (1)NOAA National Climatic Data Ctr, Asheville, NC, United States, (2)National University of Ireland Maynooth, Geography, Maynooth, Ireland, (3)DOC/NOAA/NESDIS, National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States, (4)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (5)NOAA Asheville, Asheville, NC, United States, (6)NOAA National Centers for Environmenl Informatiotan, Asheville, NC, United States, (7)National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States, (8)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
Sebastian Milinski1,2, Juergen Bader3,4, Johann H Jungclaus1 and Jochem Marotzke1, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Ocean in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany, (2)International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany, (3)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Land in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany, (4)Uni Climate, Uni Research and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Hans W Linderholm, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden, Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, Peng Zhang, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea, Björn E Gunnarson, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Chonnam national university, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South) and Hongli Ren, CMA, Beijing, China
Petr Chylek, Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM, United States and Manvendra Krishna Dubey, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Robert Burgman, FIU-Earth & Environment, Miami, FL, United States, Ben P Kirtman, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Amy C Clement, University of Miami, RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States and Heather Vazquez, Florida International University, Miami, FL, United States
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Marco Braun and Diane Chaumont, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
Ruixia Guo, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
Aixue Hu and Susan C Bates, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Ting Lei, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing, China, Shuanglin Li, Climate Change Research Center, CAS, Beijing, China, Feifei Luo, IAP Insititute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and Zhe Han, Insititute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Trevor Partridge1, Jonathan Winter1, Erich C Osterberg2, Frank J Magilligan1, David W Hyndman3 and Anthony D Kendall3, (1)Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States, (2)Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States, (3)Michigan State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States
Zhiqi Zhang, Xuguang Sun and Xiu-Qun Yang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Connor Joseph Chapman, Dustin Pennington, Matthew R Beitscher and Melissa L Godek, SUNY College at Oneonta, Oneonta, NY, United States
Hoang Minh Nguyen1, Bryan Black1, Kenneth H Dunton2 and Vanessa R von Biela3, (1)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, (2)University of Texas Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX, United States, (3)U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK, United States
Xuanze Zhang1, Ying-ping Wang2, Shushi Peng1, Peter J Rayner3, Jeremy Silver4, Philippe Ciais5, Shilong Piao1, Zaichun Zhu6, Xingjie Lu7 and Xiaogu Zheng8, (1)Peking University, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China, (2)CSIRO Ocean and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia, (3)The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, (4)The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, (5)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (6)Boston University, Allston, MA, United States, (7)Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States, (8)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Natalie Paige Thomas, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Shaina Rogstad1, Alan Condron2, Rob DeConto1 and David Pollard3, (1)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, (2)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (3)Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
Natalie Paige Thomas, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Björn E Gunnarson, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, Hans W Linderholm, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden, Robert Wilson, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16, United Kingdom and Milos Rydval, University of St. Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom
Praveen Kumar1,2, Benjamin Hamlington2, Philip R Thompson3 and Weiqing Han4, (1)Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Norfolk, VA, United States, (2)Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, United States, (3)JIMAR, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States, (4)Univ of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
Honghai Zhang, Princeton University, AOS, Princeton, NJ, United States and Thomas L Delworth, GFDL, NJ, United States
Raphaël Hébert, McGill University, Physics, Montreal, QC, Canada, Shaun Lovejoy, McGill Univ, Montreal, QC, Canada and Lenin Del Rio Amador, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
Tony Hurt Jr, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, Naoko Sakeada, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY, United States, Juliana Dias, PSD ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States and George N Kiladis, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Hiroki Tokinaga1, Shang-Ping Xie2 and Hitoshi Mukougawa1, (1)Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Vaughan R Pratt, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
Vikram M Mehta, Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, MD, United States