B068:
Terrestrial ecosystems in a time of change: Thresholds, tipping points, and critical transitions





Session ID#: 26055

Session Description:
Myriad systems maintain thresholds, tipping points, and critical transitions that help explain how they respond to changes in their environment. Terrestrial ecosystems in particular show responses to global change that can be both dramatic and difficult to predict due to strong heterogeneity across temporal and spatial scales. Threshold-based concepts have significantly aided our predictive capacity regarding the controls over terrestrial ecosystem structure and function, yet our understanding of how biotic and abiotic drivers interact to regulate systems’ responses – as well as ways to forecast the impending responses – remain limited. Here we synthesize a contemporary understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to change using a framework of thresholds, tipping points, and critical transitions. Enhanced knowledge of the patterns and mechanisms that precede and dictate terrestrial responses is of the utmost importance, and the systems approaches explored here offer a powerful way forward to considering and anticipating change.
Primary Convener:  Sasha Reed, Southwest Biological Science Center Moab, Moab, UT, United States
Conveners:  Josep Penuelas, Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications, Cerdanyola, Barcelona, Spain, Nathan G McDowell, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States and Osvaldo Sala, Arizona State University, School of Life Sciences, Tempe, AZ, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Xiuchen WU1, Hongyan Liu2, Xiaoyan Li1, Shilong Piao3, Philippe Ciais4, Weichao Guo2, Yi Yin4, Benjamin Poulter5, Changhui Peng6, Nicolas Viovy4, Nicolas Vuichard7, Pei Wang1 and Yongmei Huang1, (1)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, (2)Peking University, Beijing, China, (3)ITP Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (4)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (5)Montana State University, Montana, United States, (6)University of Quebec at Montreal, Institute of Environment Sciences, Montreal, QC, Canada, (7)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France
Adam La Salle Moreno1, Mathias Neumann2 and Hubert Hasenauer2, (1)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (2)BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Christopher Michael Gough, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, United States, Ben P Bond-Lamberty, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Ellen Stuart-Haentjens, Concord, NH, United States, Jeff Atkins, Vaudreuil-Dorion, QC, Canada, Lisa Haber, Virginia Commonwealth University, Biology, Richmond, VA, United States and Robert Timothy Fahey, University of Connecticut, Natural Resources and the Environment, Groton, CT, United States
Peter Guy Langdon1, Rong Wang2, John Dearing3, Enlou Zhang4, Patrick Doncaster5, Xiangdong Yang6, Hui Yang7, Xuhui Dong8, Zhujun Hu9, Min Xu Dr2, Zhao Yanjie2 and Ji Shen2, (1)University of Southampton, Geography and Environment, Southampton, SO14, United Kingdom, (2)NIGLAS Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China, (3)University of Southampton, Geography and Environment, Southampton, United Kingdom, (4)Knoxville, TN, United States, (5)University of Southampton, Biological Sciences, Southampton, United Kingdom, (6)Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China, (7)Anhui University of Technology, School of Mathematics and Physics, Ma'anshan, China, (8)Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark, (9)Nanjing Normal University, School of Geograpy Science, Nanjing, China
Yanlan Liu1, Mukesh Kumar1, Gabriel George Katul1 and Amilcare M Porporato2, (1)Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States, (2)Duke University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Durham, NC, United States
Malcolm Itter, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States, Loïc D'Orangeville, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada, Andria Dawson, Mount Royal University, Calgary, AB, Canada, Daniel Kneeshaw, University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Montreal, QC, Canada and Andrew O Finley, Michigan State University, Department of Forestry and Geography, East Lansing, MI, United States
Winslow Deming Hansen1, Kristin H. Braziunas2, Werner Rammer3, Rupert Seidl3 and Monica G. Turner4, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Zoology, Madison, WI, United States, (3)BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, (4)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Integrative Biology, Madison, WI, United States
Brendan M Rogers1, Edward Huntingdon Hogg2, Kylen Solvik1, Junchang Ju3, Jeffrey G Masek3, Michael Michaelian4, Logan T. Berner5 and Scott J Goetz6, (1)Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, United States, (2)Natural Resources Canada - Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada, (5)Northern Arizona University, School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (6)Northern Arizona University, SICCS, Flagstaff, AZ, United States
Esther Bochet1, Patricio García-Fayos1, María José Molina1, Mariano Moreno de las Heras2, Tíscar Espigares3, José Manuel Nicolau4 and Vicente J Monleon5, (1)Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación (CSIC, UV, GV), Moncada (Valencia), Spain, (2)Instituto de Diagnóstico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA, CSIC), Barcelona, Spain, (3)Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain, (4)Universidad de Zaragoza, Huesca, Spain, (5)US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR, United States
Kelly Heilman and Jason S McLachlan, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States
Jared L Deforest, Ohio University, Environmental and Plant Biology, Athens, OH, United States and Zachary Freedman, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, United States
Alexis Wilson, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States, Robert B Jackson, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States and Shersingh Joseph Tumber-Davila, University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, NH, United States
Mussie Tekie Beyene, University of Maine, Orono, ME, United States and Shaleen Jain, University of Maine, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Orono, ME, United States
Edward Huntingdon Hogg and Michael Michaelian, Natural Resources Canada - Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Yang Lin, University of California Berkeley, Dept of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, Berkeley, CA, United States, Avner Gross, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States and Whendee L Silver, Univ California, Berkeley, CA, United States
Stephan Pietsch, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, Johannes E Bednar, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, ESM, Laxenburg, Austria, Brian D Fath, Towson University, Towson, MD, United States and Paul A. Winter, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mathematics, Durban, South Africa
Jessica Moore, University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, NH, United States and Serita D Frey, Univ of New Hampshire, Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Durham, NH, United States
David Scott Mackay, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States, Charlotte Grossiord, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, Daniel M Johnson, University of Idaho, Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences, Moscow, ID, United States, Nathan G McDowell, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, Phil Savoy, Duke University, Department of Biology, Durham, NC, United States and John Sperry, University of Utah, Biology, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
Seth M Munson and Erin Bunting, U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, United States

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