NH003:
Betting on Natural Hazards: Prediction Markets, Risk Assessment, Insurance, Scientific Consensus, and Policy Decisions





Session ID#: 26068

Session Description:
Some critics of science-informed risk management policy inappropriately cite uncertainty as a reason to avoid or delay action. This is especially true for climate change, which some individuals reject for political or ideological reasons. But such misuse of uncertainty can also taint discussions of earthquake, volcanic, weather, solar storm, asteroid impact, landslide, tsunami, and other natural hazards. Mainstream science acknowledges and objectively quantifies uncertainty, whereas contrarians often use the more persuasive (to the public) language of certainty. To redress this imbalance, we must find a way to determine whether expressed opinions represent true opinions. One longstanding method is through wagering, and this session will examine the role of bets in exposing actual beliefs related to geohazards. “Betting” can take on many forms, including prediction market contracts, economic decisions, and insurance costs versus expected benefits. We seek abstracts that explore all these forms of betting across the full spectrum of natural hazards.
Primary Convener:  Mark Boslough, University of New Mexico Main Campus, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Conveners:  Mark Boslough, University of New Mexico Main Campus, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Albuquerque, NM, United States, Stephan Lewandowsky, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom and James Risbey, CSIRO Hobart, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Cross-Listed:
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4321 Climate impact [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Mark Stephen Roulston, Winton, London, United Kingdom
Bruce Jones, The International Green Industry Hall of Fame, Board of Directors, Fresno, CA, United States; Climate Reality Project, Volunteer, Glendale, CA, United States
Huicong Jia, RADI Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and Donghua Pan, National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, China
Joshua B Halpern, Howard University, Chemistry, Washington, DC, United States
Nazla Bushra1, Jill C. Trepanier2 and Robert V Rohli1, (1)Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States, (2)Louisiana State University, Geography and Anthropology, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
WU Lihui, Hubei University of Education, Wuhan, China and Dun Wang, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China
Joel Caldwell Curtis, National Weather Service, Weather Forecast Office, Juneau, AK, United States; National Weather Service WFO Juneau, Juneau, AK, United States
Mark Trexler, George Washington University, Engineering, Washington, DC, United States; The Climatographers, Portland, OR, United States
Chitsomanus P. Muneepeerakul, Independent researcher, Gainesville, FL, United States and Rachata Muneepeerakul, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States

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