GC049:
Mechanisms and Impacts of Natural and Anthropogenic Tropical Pacific Decadal Variations and Trends





Session ID#: 26317

Session Description:
Decadal variations in the tropical Pacific coupled ocean-atmosphere system have climate impacts around the globe, potentially influencing ENSO, monsoons, droughts, polar climates, and modulating global temperature trends. Current research has led to improved understanding of tropical decadal processes, such as: natural (solar, volcanic) and anthropogenic (aerosol and greenhouse gas) forcing; internal oceanic dynamics; extratropical-tropical atmospheric, oceanic, and land interactions; and noise processes on a variety of time scales. Characterizing forced long-term tropical Pacific changes remains an important challenge.

 

Papers are invited on causes, predictability, and global impacts of decadal to centennial climate variability, both forced and unforced, in the tropical Pacific. Observational and modelling studies are both welcome. Contributions utilizing paleoclimate reconstructions, instrumental observations, future projections based on numerical models, and theoretical models are welcome, as are methodological papers aimed at assessing and/or improving tropical Pacific near-term forecasting, including studying model bias and initialization shock.

Primary Convener:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Co-Organized with:
Global Environmental Change, Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean Sciences, and Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4513 Decadal ocean variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4922 El Nino [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Scott Power1, Francois Delage1, Greg Kociuba1, Guomin Wang2 and Ian Smith3, (1)Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, (2)Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, (3)c/- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Xuguang Sun, Yang Xia, Yan Yan, Weiyang Feng, Fang Huang and Xiu-Qun Yang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Aaron F Z Levine1, Michael J McPhaden1 and Dargan M Frierson2, (1)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Francesco S.R. Pausata, University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Montreal, QC, Canada and Christina Karamperidou, Univ Hawaii, HONOLULU, HI, United States
Evgeniya Predybaylo, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Earth Science and Engineering, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, Georgiy L Stenchikov, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Shineng Hu, Yale University, Geology and Geophysics, New Haven, CT, United States and Alexey V Fedorov, Yale Univ, New Haven, CT, United States
Matthew Newman1, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg2, Linyin Cheng3, Gilbert P Compo3 and Catherine Anne Smith4, (1)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Gloria Jimenez1, Julia E Cole2, Lael Vetter1, Diane M Thompson3 and Alexander William Tudhope4, (1)University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (3)Boston University, Earth & Environment, Boston, MA, United States, (4)Univ Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Martin Puy, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States, Pedro DiNezro, University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States and Kaustubh Thirumalai, Brown University, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Providence, RI, United States
Aude Carreric1, Boris Dewitte1 and Virginie Guemas2, (1)LEGOS, Toulouse, France, (2)Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain
Emanuele Di Lorenzo1, Giovanni Liguori2, Youngji Joh3 and Yingying Zhao1, (1)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Program in Ocean Science & Engineering, Atlanta, GA, United States, (2)Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (3)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Gang Wang1, Matthew Newman2 and Weiqing Han1, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States
Fangzhao Zhang1, Jean-Pierre Barriot1, Keitapu Maamaatuaiahutapu1, Lydie Sichoix1 and Guochang Xu Sr2, (1)University of French Polynesia, Faa'a, French Polynesia, (2)Shandong University, Weihai, China
Myriam Khodri1, Takeshi Izumo1, Jérôme Vialard1, Serge Janicot1, Christophe Cassou2, Matthieu Lengaigne1, Eric Guilyardi3, Guillaume Gastineau1, Juliette Mignot1, Nicolas Lebas1, Alan Robock4 and Michael J McPhaden5, (1)LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris cedex 05, France, (2)CERFACS European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, Toulouse Cedex 01, France, (3)LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France, (4)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (5)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Chunhan Jin1, Jian Liu2, Bin Wang3, Zhiyuan Wang2 and Mi Yan1, (1)Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China, (2)Nanjing Normal University, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing, China, (3)NUIST Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing, China
Yiyong Luo1, Fukai Liu1 and Jian Lu2, (1)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Tsubasa Kohyama, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States and Dennis L Hartmann, University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
Paul R Pukite, DAINA, Minneapolis, MN, United States
Jiangyu MAO, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China and Xiaofei WU, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
Beyrem Jebri1, Myriam Khodri2, Guillaume Gastineau2, Vincent Echevin3 and Sylvie Thiria1, (1)Laboratoire d'océanographie et du climat : expérimentations et approches numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France, (2)Sorbonne-Universités, LOCEAN, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris, France, (3)Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Paris, France
Katinka Bellomo, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States and Lorenzo M Polvani, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Samantha Stevenson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA Boulder, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, John Fasullo, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States and Bette L Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Christina Karamperidou, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, Ruihuang Xie, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China and Pedro N Di Nezio, IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States