SH015:
Advance Predictions of Solar Wind Conditions at L1 and the Consequences for Geoeffectiveness





Session ID#: 26770

Session Description:
Accurate prediction of solar wind conditions at L1 are necessary for long lead-time forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Not only is the arrival time of high speed streams and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at L1 critical, but also other quantities, such as IMF Bz and CME velocity of arrival. Model validation with appropriate metrics allows the community to quantify advancements in predictive capabilities and science understanding. How successfully can various models or techniques predict solar wind conditions at L1? In what aspects do the models perform well, and where do the models need improvement? The quantification of uncertainties in model inputs such as magnetograms and 3D CME kinematics in the corona also become important to consider. We encourage presentations on any of these aspects, particularly modeling of solar wind conditions at L1, and quantifying model performance. We also solicit contributions from participants of CCMC's "International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment."
Primary Convener:  M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Conveners:  Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, Matthew West, Royal Observatory Belgium, Brussels, Belgium and Christine Verbeke, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

Cross-Listed:
  • SM - SPA-Magnetospheric Physics
Index Terms:

2134 Interplanetary magnetic fields [INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS]
2164 Solar wind plasma [INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS]
7513 Coronal mass ejections [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Nicole Cornilleau-Wehrlin1, Karine Bocchialini2, Michel Menvielle3, Dominique Fontaine1, Benjamin Grison4, Aurelie Marchaudon5, Monique Pick6, Frederic Pitout5, Brigitte Schmieder6, Stephane Regnier7, Yannis Zouganelis8 and Aude Chambodut9, (1)CNRS, Paris Cedex 16, France, (2)IAS Institut d'Astrophysique Spatiale, Orsay Cedex, France, (3)LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales, Paris Cedex 05, France, (4)IAP, Prague 4, Czech Republic, (5)IRAP, Toulouse, France, (6)Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, Meudon, France, (7)Northumbria University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1, United Kingdom, (8)Ecole Polytechnique, Saint Maur Des Fosse, France, (9)Institut de Physique du Globe Strasbourg, Strasbourg Cedex, France
Christina Kay, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Nat Gopalswamy, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Benjamin Grison1, Karine Bocchialini2, Michel Menvielle3, Aude Chambodut4, Nicole Cornilleau-Wehrlin5, Dominique Fontaine5, Aurelie Marchaudon6, Monique Pick7, Frederic Pitout6, Brigitte Schmieder7, Stephane Regnier8 and Yannis Zouganelis9, (1)Institute of Atmospheric Physics ACSR, Praha 4, Czech Republic, (2)IAS Institut d'Astrophysique Spatiale, Orsay Cedex, France, (3)LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales, Paris Cedex 05, France, (4)Institut de Physique du Globe Strasbourg, Strasbourg Cedex, France, (5)CNRS, Paris Cedex 16, France, (6)IRAP, Toulouse, France, (7)Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, Meudon, France, (8)Northumbria University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1, United Kingdom, (9)Ecole Polytechnique, Saint Maur Des Fosse, France
Hairong Lai, University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Steven J Schwartz, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States
Hazel M Bain1, Douglas Alan Biesecker2, Michele D Cash2, Alysha Reinard3 and James Chen4, (1)Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Naval Research Lab, Washington, DC, United States
Aleksandre Taktakishvili1, M. Leila Mays1, P K Manoharan2, Lutz Rastaetter3 and Maria M Kuznetsova3, (1)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)National Centre for Radio Astrophysics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Pune, India, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Camilla Scolini1,2, Christine Verbeke1, Nat Gopalswamy3, Nicolas Wijsen1, Stefaan Poedts1, Marilena Mierla2,4, Luciano Rodriguez2, Jens Pomoell5, William D Cramer6 and Joachim Raeder6, (1)KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, (2)SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Uccle, Belgium, (3)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania, (5)University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, (6)University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States
Barbara J Thompson1, Heather F. Mei2, David Barnes3, Robin C Colaninno4, RyunYoung Kwon5, M. Leila Mays6, Marilena Mierla7, Christian Moestl8, Ian G Richardson1 and Christine Verbeke9, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Tufts University, Medford, MA, United States, (3)Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, OX11, United Kingdom, (4)Naval Research Lab DC, Washington, DC, United States, (5)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (6)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (7)Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania, (8)Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria, (9)KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
Eric T Adamson, University of Colorado at Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Douglas Alan Biesecker, NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, M. Leila Mays, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Peter J MacNeice, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Aleksandre Taktakishvili, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States and Rodney A Viereck, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Alexandra M. Wold1,2, M. Leila Mays3, Aleksandre Taktakishvili4,5, Dusan Odstrcil6,7, Peter J MacNeice8 and Lan Jian5,9, (1)American University, Washington, DC, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)George Mason University Fairfax, School of Physics, Astronomy, and Computational Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States, (7)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (8)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (9)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Erika Palmerio1, Emilia Kilpua1, Marilena Mierla2,3, Luciano Rodriguez3, Alexey Isavnin1 and Andrei Zhukov4,5, (1)University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, (2)Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania, (3)SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, (4)Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, (5)Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moskow, Russia
Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States
Daniel T Welling1, Ward Manchester2, Neel Savani3, Igor Sokolov2, Bart van der Holst2, Meng Jin4, Gabor Toth2, Michael Warren Liemohn5 and Tamas I Gombosi6, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States, (4)Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, Palo Alto, CA, United States, (5)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (6)Univ of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Peter J MacNeice1, Lutz Rastaetter1, M. Leila Mays2, Justin M Boblitt3 and Chiu Wiegand4, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)NASA, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Richard Anthony Harrison1, Jackie A Davies2, David Barnes1, Christopher H Perry3, Christian Moestl4, Alexis Rouillard5, Volker Bothmer6, Luciano Rodriguez7, Jonathan P Eastwood8, Emilia Kilpua9, Peter Gallagher10, Dusan Odstrcil11 and the HELCATS team, (1)Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, OX11, United Kingdom, (2)Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, United Kingdom, (3)RAL, Harwell, United Kingdom, (4)Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria, (5)IRAP, Toulouse, France, (6)University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany, (7)SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Uccle, Belgium, (8)Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, (9)University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, (10)Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland, (11)George Mason University Fairfax, School of Physics, Astronomy, and Computational Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Janelle Holmes, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Justin Christophe Kasper, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, MA, United States and Daniel T Welling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Neel Savani, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States, Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, M. Leila Mays, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Hayley J Austin, Johns Hopkins University, Balitmore, MD, United States and CCMC International IMF Bz at L1 working team