GC079:
Toward Better Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Variability: From Ecosystem Processes to Agricultural Adaptation and Decision





Session ID#: 27016

Session Description:
Climate variability (CV) is a critical driver of year-to-year impacts on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. To properly understand its ecological impacts, it’s necessary to quantify how ecosystems have historically responded to climate variability, and to characterize the uncertainty in projected impacts. In agricultural systems, assessing impacts of climate variability also requires understanding dynamics of farmer adaptation and decision-making. Here we seek new efforts to quantify both historical and future impacts of CV on unmanaged ecosystems and agriculture, the most extensive managed ecosystem: i) empirical/process-based methods for estimating CV impacts to ecosystems across multiple spatio-temporal scales; ii) identifying key sources of CV and methodological factors leading to uncertainty and their related impacts; iii) new CV forecasting methods at relevant scales for understanding ecosystem response; iv) translating forecasts into useful decision support for natural resource managers and farmers; v) attributing farmer responses to CV with respect to socioeconomic and ecological circumstances.
Primary Convener:  Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, Department of plant, soil and microbial sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States
Conveners:  Lyndon D Estes, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Sharon Gourdji, National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, Gaithersburg, MD, United States and Jeff W Atkins, Virginia Commonwealth University, Biology, Richmond, VA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1640 Remote sensing [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Seyni Salack1, Nadine O. Worou1, Safietou Sanfo1, Michel Pinghouinde Nikiema2, Ibrahim Boubacar3, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel4 and Ebagnerin Jerome Tondoh1, (1)WASCAL, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, (2)Agence Nationale de la Meteorologie, Ouagadougou, DC, Burkina Faso, (3)Universite Abdou Moumouni de Niamey, Climate change and water resources, Ouagadougou, Niger, (4)International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering, LEAH, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Megan Konar and Nicole D Jackson, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States
Meha Jain1, Ram Fishman2, Pinki Mondal3, Gillian L Galford4, Nishan Bhattarai1, Shahid Naeem5 and Ruth S DeFries5, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, School for Environment and Sustainability, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel, (3)Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States, (5)Columbia University, Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, New York, NY, United States
Julian Ramirez-Villegas1,2, Steven Prager3, Lizeth Llanos3, Diego Agudelo3, Alejandra Esquivel3, Alejandra Esquivel3, Steven Sotelo3, Edward Guevara3, Fanny C. Howland3, Armando Munoz3, Jeferson Rodriguez3, Leonardo Ordonez3 and Katia Fernandes4, (1)International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia, (2)CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Cali, Colombia, (3)Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, Cali, Colombia, (4)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Yi Zhao, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Lyndon D Estes, Clark University, Worcester, MA, United States and Noemi Vergopolan, Federal University of Parana, Environmental Engineering, Curitiba, Brazil
Aparna Radhakrishnan and Jancy Gupta, National Dairy Research Institute, Trivandrum, India
Aston Chipanshi1, Dongzhi Qi1, Yinsuo Zhang2 and Patrick Cherneski1, (1)Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Regina, SK, Canada, (2)Agricult. and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Qiong SU, Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States, R Karthikeyan, Texas A & M, College Station, TX, United States and Yun Lin, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, United States
Alex Zizinga, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
Kwang-Hyung Kim1, Seongkyu Lee1, Eunjin Han2 and Amor V M Ines3, (1)APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea, (2)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Michigan State University, Dept of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States
Wonsik Kim, Toshichika Iizumi and Motoki Nishimori, NIAES-NARO, Tsukuba, Japan
Hao Jiang and Tao Lin, Zhejiang University, College of Biosystems Engineering and Food Science, Hangzhou, China
Shinwoo Hyun1, Deokhwan Choi2 and Beomseok Seo2, (1)Seoul National University, Department of plant science, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Seoul National University, Department of plant science, Seoul, South Korea
Bin Peng1, Kaiyu Guan1, Min Chen2, David M Lawrence3, Zhenong Jin4, Carl J. Bernacchi5,6, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth5,6, Evan H DeLucia5,7, Danica L. Lombardozzi3 and Yaqiong Lu3, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences and National Center for Supercomputing Applications, Urbana, IL, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Richland, WA, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Stanford University, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Department of Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States, (5)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Plant Biology and Carl. R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, Urbana, IL, United States, (6)United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, Urbana, IL, United States, (7)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, Urbana, IL, United States
Amor V M Ines1, Eunjin Han2 and Walter Baethgen2, (1)Michigan State University, Department of plant, soil and microbial sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, (2)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Natasha Krell1, Tom P Evans2, Lyndon D Estes3 and Kelly K Caylor1, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, (3)Clark University, Worcester, MA, United States
Mamta Rana, Ministry of Earth Sciences India, New Delhi, India, Kamlesh Kumar Singh, India Meteorological Dept, Agromet Advisory Services Division, New Delhi, NE, India and Nisha Kumari, Deenbandhu Chhotu Ram University of Science & Technology,Murthal, Centre of Excellence for Energy and Environmental Studies, Sonipat, India
Morteza Mesbah, Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, Charlottetown, PE, Canada, Elizabeth Pattey, Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada, Guillaume Jégo, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Quebec City, QC, Canada, Xiaoyuan Geng, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada, Anne Didier, NA, Reims, France and Nicolas Tremblay, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Canada
Peng Zhu1, Qianlai Zhuang1 and Zhenong Jin2, (1)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (2)Stanford University, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Department of Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States
Jessie George, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Glen M MacDonald, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Avery Cohn, Tufts University, The Fletcher School, Medford, MA, United States, Arthur Bragança, TRACES, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Graham Robert Jeffries, Tufts University, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Medford, MA, United States
Sandeep Mahato1, Kamal Kumar Murari2 and Thiagarajan Jayaraman1, (1)Tata Institute of Social Sciences, School of Habitat Studies, Mumbai, India, (2)IITB-Monash Research Academy, Powai, India