PA029:
Science to Action: Resilient Decision Making in the Midst of Uncertainty





Session ID#: 27225

Session Description:
Decision makers who manage natural resources, infrastructure, and emergency response systems to support water, energy, and food security face a myriad of uncertainties when assessing risk. These uncertainties are likely to increase in the future as infrastructure ages, temperatures increase, precipitation patterns change and intensify, populations grow, and economies change.  While probabilistic information and uncertainty have always been an integral part of planning, design, and management decisions, future changes in natural and human systems are forcing a re-assessment of how we understand and interpret risk. This session focuses on approaches that embrace uncertainty and work in partnership with decision makers to uncover ways to support adaptive management and resilient planning in the midst of an uncertain world.  We seek innovators who bridge research and operations and welcome examples focused on improving day-to-day operations (e.g., streamflow forecasting, flood risk management) and long-term planning (e.g., planning and infrastructure design for sea-level rise).
Primary Convener:  Anna Maria Wilson, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States
Conveners:  Thomas Adams, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Water Center (NWC), Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Julie A Vano, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Francisco Munoz-Arriola, University of Nebraska Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • H - Hydrology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Hong-Yi Li1, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu1, Wei Wang2, Sheng Ye3, Jiali Guo4, Guenter Bloeschl5 and L. Ruby Leung6, (1)Montana State University, Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Bozeman, MT, United States, (2)Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (3)Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, (4)Wuhan University Library, Wuhan, China, (5)Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Vienna, Austria, (6)PNNL / Climate Physics, Richland, WA, United States
Julia Kumari Drapkin and Lindsey Wagner, ISeeChange: Community Weather and Climate Journal, New Orleans, LA, United States
Jim W Hall1, Raghav Pant1, Elco Koks2, Scott Thacker3 and Tom Russell1, (1)University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)Free University of Amsterdam, IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands, (3)Oxford University Press, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford, United Kingdom
Julie Rozenberg, World Bank, Office of the Chief Economist for Climate Change, Washington, DC, United States
Christopher Clavin, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC, United States and Zoe Petropoulos, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC, United States
Robert Cifelli1, V Chandrasekar2, Michael Anderson3 and Grant Davis3, (1)NOAA, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Electrical & Computer Engineering, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (3)State of California, Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States
Ambuj Kumar Sriwastava1, Jairo Arturo Torres-Matallana2, Simon Tait3 and Alma Schellart3, (1)University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10, United Kingdom, (2)Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, Luxembourg, (3)University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
Julia Ekstrom, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States and Louise Wells Bedsworth, Governor's Office of Planning & Research, Sacramento, CA, United States
Gregory George Garner, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States
Ambarish Karmalkar, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States
Isaac (Ike) Irby, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States and Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Virginia Inst Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States
David G Groves, RAND Corporation Santa Monica, Santa Monica, CA, United States and Neil Berg, RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA, United States
Adam James Loch, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
Kim Smet, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States, Richard de Neufville, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Cambridge, MA, United States and Maarten van der Vlist, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
Guillaume S Mauger1, Raquel Lorente-Plazas2, Eric P Salathe Jr3, Todd P Mitchell4, Jim Simmonds5, Se-Yeun Lee1, Katherine Hegewisch6, Michael Warner7 and Jason Won1, (1)University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain, (3)University of Washington, Science and Technology Program, Bothell, WA, United States, (4)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (5)King County, Water and Land Resources Division, Seattle, WA, United States, (6)University of Idaho, Department of Geography, Moscow, ID, United States, (7)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Abelardo Rodriguez-Pretelin and Wolfgang Nowak, University of Stuttgart, Stochastic Simulation and Safety Research for Hydrosystems, Stuttgart, Germany
Kelly M Mahoney, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Robert Cifelli, NOAA, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Robert Stabler Webb, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Bill McCormick, Colorado Division of Water Resources, Denver, CO, United States
David H Behar, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA, United States, Robert E Kopp, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Rob DeConto, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, Christopher P Weaver, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, United States, Kathleen D White, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States, Kris May, Silvestrum Climate Associates, San Francisco, CA, United States and Robert Bindschadler, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Dirk Mallants, Glen Osmond, SA, Australia, Luk JM Peeters, CSIRO Land and Water Canberra, Canberra, Australia and Chris Turnadge, CSIRO Land and Water Canberra, Water Resource Management, Adelaide, Australia
Dan Walker, ClimateMonkeys, Damascus, MD, United States and Bilal M. Ayyub, University of Maryland College Park, Civil and Environmental Engineering, College Park, MD, United States

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