H042:
Diagnostics, Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Models





Session ID#: 29393

Session Description:
Environmental models are key monitoring and prediction tools used in science and engineering. Complex models not only have uncertain inputs and structure, which propagate into uncertain model outputs, but also continually increase in computation demand. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses (SA/UA) are hence used to understand model structure, characterize uncertainties, and reduce the computational load of such models. This session invites contributions on both theory and application of SA/UA methods, that may include but are not limited to parameter estimation, input data uncertainty quantification, algorithmic improvements, dimensionality reductions, approximation techniques, surrogate models, or surrogate assisted methods.

Particular topics of interest include (but are not limited to):

  • Methods for better understanding and characterization of “uncertainty” and “sensitivity”
  • Strategies for a more comprehensive SA/UA (e.g., multi-criteria SA)
  • Role of data and epistemic errors in model SA/UA
  • Methods for improving computational efficiency of SA/UA (e.g. surrogate modeling)
  • Spatial and/or temporal variation of SA/UA
Primary Convener:  Juliane Mai, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Conveners:  Amin Haghnegahdar, University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada and Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Shahram Sahraei and Masoud Asadzadeh, University of Manitoba, Department of Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Mohammad Semnani and Masoud Asadzadeh, University of Manitoba, Department of Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Yanjun Gan1, Xin-Zhong Liang2, Qingyun Duan3, Jing Xu1, Ping Zhao1 and Yang Hong4, (1)Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Beijing, China, (2)University of Maryland, College Park, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Beijing Normal University, Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Beijing, China, (4)Tsinghua University, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Beijing, China
Marvin Hoege, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany, Wolfgang Nowak, University of Stuttgart, Stochastic Simulation and Safety Research for Hydrosystems, Stuttgart, Germany and Walter A Illman, Univ of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Nicolet Anne Chovancak, University of South Carolina Columbia, Columbia, SC, United States, Grace Maze, RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States and S.Z. Samadi, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States
Andrew Bennett, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, WA, United States, Bart Nijssen, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, Oriana Chegwidden, University of Washington, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, WA, United States, Andrew Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Martyn P Clark, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Akash Koppa, Mekonnen Gebremichael and William W-G Yeh, University of California Los Angeles, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Juliane Mai and Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Hongli Liu, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada and Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Cain Moylan1, Jeffrey C Neal2, Jim E Freer1, Francesca Pianosi3, Thorsten Wagener4, Christopher Charles Sampson5 and Andy Smith5, (1)University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (2)University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, (3)University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom, (4)University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, (5)SSBN Ltd, Bristol, United Kingdom
Ning Wang and András Bárdossy, University of Stuttgart, Department of Hydrology and Geohydrology, Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, Stuttgart, Germany
Xiankui Zeng, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, Ming Ye, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States, Jichun Wu, Nanjing University, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing, China and Dong WANG, Nanjing University, Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing, China
Thorsten Wagener1, Francesca Pianosi2, Valentina Noacco3 and Fanny Sarrazin2, (1)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, (2)University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom
Alberto Guadagnini, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy, Monica Riva, Politecnico Di Milano, Milano, Italy and Aronne Dell'Oca, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
Reynold Chow1,2, Jeremy Bennett1, Jürnjakob Dugge1, Thomas Wöhling1,3 and Wolfgang Nowak1,2, (1)University of Tübingen, Center for Applied Geoscience, Tübingen, Germany, (2)University of Stuttgart, Stochastic Simulation and Safety Research for Hydrosystems, Stuttgart, Germany, (3)Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany
Tyler J Smith, Chamil Perera and Casey Corrigan, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY, United States
Zhiming Lu, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Hilary K McMillan, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States, Ida Westerberg, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden and Flora Branger, IRSTEA Lyon, Villeurbanne Cedex, France
Grey S Nearing, University of Alabama, Geological Sciences, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, Benjamin L Ruddell, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States, Martyn P Clark, Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Bart Nijssen, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States and Christa D Peters-Lidard, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Khachik Sargsyan1, Daniel M Ricciuto2, Cosmin Safta1 and Peter E Thornton3, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Jiarui Dong1, Michael B Ek2, Helin Wei3 and Jesse Meng3, (1)IMSG, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
Douglas Germond Tolley III1, Laura Foglia1 and Thomas Harter2, (1)University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States, (2)Univ California, Land, Air, and Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States
Omar Wani1,2, Gabriel Espadas3, Francesca Cecinati4 and Joerg Rieckermann2, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (3)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Department of Mathematics, Zurich, Switzerland, (4)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Fabrizio Fenicia1, Dmitri Kavetski2, Carlo Albert1 and Peter Reichert1, (1)EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (2)School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Tara Razavi and Paulin DL Coulibaly, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
Anna Ryken1, David Gochis2, Rosemary W H Carroll3, Lindsay A Bearup4, Kenneth Hurst Williams1 and Reed M Maxwell1, (1)Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Desert Research Institute, Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Reno, NV, United States, (4)Bureau of Reclamation Denver, Denver, CO, United States
Zhong Li and Maysara Ghaith, McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, Hamilton, ON, Canada
Manashi Paul, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Masoud Negahban-Azar, University of Maryland College Park, Environmental Science and Technology, College Park, MD, United States
Tung T Nguyen, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States, Hai V Pham, Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas, NV, United States, Matthew Bachmann, US Geological Survey, Tacoma, WA, United States, Christina (Naomi) Tague, UC Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States and Jennifer C Adam, Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, United States

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