H23C:
Diagnostics, Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Models III Posters

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 29393

Session Description:
Environmental models are key monitoring and prediction tools used in science and engineering. Complex models not only have uncertain inputs and structure, which propagate into uncertain model outputs, but also continually increase in computation demand. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses (SA/UA) are hence used to understand model structure, characterize uncertainties, and reduce the computational load of such models. This session invites contributions on both theory and application of SA/UA methods, that may include but are not limited to parameter estimation, input data uncertainty quantification, algorithmic improvements, dimensionality reductions, approximation techniques, surrogate models, or surrogate assisted methods.

Particular topics of interest include (but are not limited to):

  • Methods for better understanding and characterization of “uncertainty” and “sensitivity”
  • Strategies for a more comprehensive SA/UA (e.g., multi-criteria SA)
  • Role of data and epistemic errors in model SA/UA
  • Methods for improving computational efficiency of SA/UA (e.g. surrogate modeling)
  • Spatial and/or temporal variation of SA/UA
Primary Convener:  Juliane Mai, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Conveners:  Kimberly C Brumble, University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada, Amin Haghnegahdar, University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada and Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Chairs:  Juliane Mai1, Bryan Tolson1, Amin Haghnegahdar2 and Kimberly C Brumble3, (1)University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada(2)University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada(3)University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada
OSPA Liaison:  Mary C Hill, University of Kansas, Geology, Lawrence, KS, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
Index Terms:

0430 Computational methods and data processing [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1805 Computational hydrology [HYDROLOGY]
1846 Model calibration [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Considering Decision Variable Diversity in Multi-Objective Optimization: Application in Hydrologic Model Calibration (211966)
Shahram Sahraei and Masoud Asadzadeh, University of Manitoba, Department of Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints (217667)
Marvin Hoege, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany, Wolfgang Nowak, University of Stuttgart, Stochastic Simulation and Safety Research for Hydrosystems (IWS/SC SimTech), Stuttgart, Germany and Walter A Illman, Univ of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Assessing the Responses of Streamflow to Pollution Release in South Carolina (224986)
Nicolet Anne Chovancak, University of South Carolina Columbia, Columbia, SC, United States, Grace Maze, RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States and Vidya Samadi, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States
Method-independent, Computationally Frugal Convergence Testing for Sensitivity Analysis Techniques (232133)
Juliane Mai and Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Investigation of the Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modelling (238682)
Ning Wang and András Bárdossy, University of Stuttgart, Department of Hydrology and Geohydrology, Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, Stuttgart, Germany
Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models (252801)
Tyler J Smith1, Chamil Perera2 and Casey Corrigan2, (1)Clarkson University, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Potsdam, NY, United States, (2)Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY, United States
Evaluation of snow modeling with Noah and Noah-MP land surface models in NCEP GFS/CFS system (258879)
Jiarui Dong1, Michael B Ek2, Helin Wei3 and Jesse Meng3, (1)IMSG, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
Managing Groundwater Recharge and Pumping for Late Summer Streamflow Increases: Quantifying Uncertainty Using Null Space Monte Carlo (264925)
Douglas Germond Tolley III1, Laura Foglia2 and Thomas Harter2, (1)University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States, (2)University of California Davis, Land, Air and Water Resources, Davis, United States
Towards a Better Understanding of Water Stores and Fluxes: Model Observation Synthesis in a Snowmelt Dominated Research Watershed (285328)
Anna Ryken, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States, David Gochis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Rosemary W H Carroll, Desert Research Institute, Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Reno, NV, United States, Lindsay A Bearup, Bureau of Reclamation Denver, Denver, United States, Kenneth Hurst Williams, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Berkeley, United States and Reed M Maxwell, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Stochastic Simulation and Forecast of Hydrologic Time Series Based on Probabilistic Chaos Expansion (285621)
Zhong Li and Maysara Ghaith, McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, Hamilton, ON, Canada
Soil and geologic controls on recharge and groundwater flow response to climate perturbation: A case study of the Yakima River Basin (301393)
Tung T Nguyen, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States, Hai V Pham, Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas, NV, United States, Matthew Bachmann, US Geological Survey, Tacoma, WA, United States, Christina (Naomi) Tague, UC Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Santa Barbara, United States and Jennifer C Adam, Washington State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, United States
Applying Spatially Distributed Rainfall to a Hydrological Model in a Tropical Watershed, Manoa Watershed, in Hawaii (214956)
Yu-Fen Huang and Yinphan Tsang, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Natural Resources and Environmental Management, Honolulu, United States
Building an Evaluation Framework for the VIC Model in the NLDAS Testbed (232900)
Youlong Xia1, David M Mocko2, Shugong Wang3, Ming Pan4, Sujay V Kumar5, Christa D Peters-Lidard6, Helin Wei1 and Michael B Ek7, (1)Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NASA GSFC/SAIC, Greenbelt, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (5)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States, (7)Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States
The Role of Evapotranspiration in Streamflow Modeling-an Analysis Using Entropy Theory (242920)
Walter Lee Ellenburg II, University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA-SERVIR, Huntsville, United States, James Cruise, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, United States and Vijay P Singh, Texas A & M University, Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, College Station, TX, United States
­Understanding Information Flow Interaction along Separable Causal Paths in Environmental Signals (260835)
Peishi Jiang, University of Alabama, Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States and Praveen Kumar, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States
Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series (266565)
Andrew M O'Reilly, USDA ARS, National Sedimentation Laboratory, Oxford, United States
Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory (271243)
Huijuan Cui, IGSNRR Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China and Vijay P. Singh, Texas A&M University, College Station, United States

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