H146:
Weather/Climate Ensembles and Statistical Downscaling for Hydrologic prediction systems: Methods, Process Understanding and Applications





Session ID#: 29489

Session Description:
Hydrological prediction systems at sub-daily to multi-decadal time scales assist decision making by providing improved information on flooding, droughts, agricultural applications, and climate impact assessments.

These prediction systems use downscaled meteorological inputs to improve accuracy and ensembles techniques to better represent meteorological uncertainty produced by global and regional scale numerical weather prediction models. 

Examples of statistical downscaling techniques used to bridge this scale gap are the perfect prognosis and model output statistical approaches such as bias correction. Such downscaled and ensemble-based inputs enhance decision making capabilities and increase modeling fidelity as compared to using global/regional meteorological models directly.

This session aims to showcase advances in ensemble methods and downscaling of multi-model climate and weather projections and their relevance in improving hydrologic modeling and prediction across spatial and temporal scales. Groups that use such approaches in risk analysis, flood and drought forecasting, urban hydrology and agriculture are invited.

Primary Convener:  Firas Saleh, Stevens Institute of Technology, Davidson Laboratory, Deptartment of Civil, Environmental and Ocean Engineering, Union City, NJ, United States
Conveners:  Zilefac Elvis Asong, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, Howard S. Wheater, Centre for Hydrology and Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada and Ricardo Mantilla, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
Co-Organized with:
Hydrology, Atmospheric Sciences, and Global Environmental Change

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1840 Hydrometeorology [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Faranak Behzadi and Patrick A Ray, University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States
Jitendra Kumar Meher, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Mohanpur, West Bengal, India and Lalu Das, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Dept. of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Mohanpur, India
Ethan D Gutmann1, Trude Eidhammer1, J Arnold2, Kenneth Nowak3 and Martyn P Clark4, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, United States, (4)Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Javed Akhter1, Lalu Das2 and Argha Deb1, (1)Jadavpur University, Dept. of Physics, Kolkata, India, (2)Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Dept. of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Mohanpur, India
Joseph Hamman1, Ethan D Gutmann2, J Arnold3, Trude Eidhammer1, Kenneth Nowak4 and Martyn P Clark5, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, United States, (5)Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Luliu Liu, National Climate Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China, Liangmin Du, Wuhan Regional Climate Centre, Chinese Meteoroligcal Adminitration, Wuhan, China and Yaoming Liao, National Climate Center, Chinese Meterological Administration, Beijing, China
Fatima Maria Pillosu, Timothy Hewson and Cinzia Mazzetti, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Forecast Department, Reading, United Kingdom
Patrick Grenier, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
Kate Duffy1, Udit Bhatia1, Thomas Vandal1 and Auroop R Ganguly2, (1)Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States, (2)Northeastern University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Boston, MA, United States
Ahmad Hasan Nury1, Ashish Sharma2 and Lucy Amanda Marshall2, (1)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (2)University of New South Wales, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Zelalem T. Mekonnen, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Research Triangle Institute, SSES, EHS, Water Resources Management Division, Research Triangle Park, CO, United States and Mekonnen Gebremichael, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Rodrigo Alberto Castillo Rodriguez Sr, Jorge A Amador and Ana Maria Duran-Quesada, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica
Noriko N Ishizaki, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, Koji Dairaku, NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan and Genta Ueno, The Inst of Statistical Math, Tokyo, Japan
Hyung-Il Eum and Anil Gupta, Alberta Environment and Parks, Calgary, AB, Canada
Kathleen D White1, Bryan Baker2, Chanel Mueller3, Gabriele Villarini4, Patrick Foley3 and Douglas Friedman5, (1)US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States, (2)US Army Corps of Engineers Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH, United States, (3)US Army Corps of Engineers St. Paul District, St. Paul, MN, United States, (4)IIHR—Hydroscience and Engineering, Iowa City, IA, United States, (5)Booz Allen Hamilton DC, Washington, DC, United States
Moetasim Ashfaq1, Deeksha Rastogi1, Fulden Batibeniz1, Mariana Alifa2, Brianna Rita Pagán3, Brandon W Bonds4, Jeremy S Pal2, Noah S Diffenbaugh5 and Benjamin L Preston6,7, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)Ghent University, Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Ghent, Belgium, (4)Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, United States, (5)Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (6)RAND Foundantion, Santa Monica, CA, United States, (7)RAND Foundation, Santa Monica, CA, United States
Majid Taie Semiromi and Manfred Koch, University of Kassel, Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology, Kassel, Germany
Christopher L Castro, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, Hsin-I Chang, Univ of AZ-Atmos Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and Thang Manh Luong, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Ciudad DE Armería, Mexico

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