SH31A:
Advance Predictions of Solar Wind and Particle Radiation and the Consequences for Geoeffectiveness and Human Exploration Posters

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Session ID#: 30757

Session Description:
Accurate prediction of solar wind conditions are necessary for long lead-time forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Not only is the arrival time of high speed streams and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at L1 critical, but also other quantities, such as IMF Bz and CME velocity of arrival, and particle radiation. Particle radiation poses significant hazards for astronauts, satellites, aviators and passengers as well as produces affects on planetary bodies. Radiation remains a factor that we must face through improved understanding and innovation of methodologies for prediction. Model validation with appropriate metrics allows the community to quantify advancements in predictive capabilities and science understanding. How successfully can various models or techniques predict solar wind and radiation conditions? In what aspects do the models perform well, and where do the models need improvement?
Primary Convener:  M. Leila Mays, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Conveners:  Nathan Schwadron, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, Christine Verbeke, KU Leuven, Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, Leuven, Belgium and W Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies, Space Systems Division, Pacific Palisades, CA, United States
Chairs:  W Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies, Space Systems Division, Pacific Palisades, CA, United States, Christine Verbeke, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States and Matthew John West, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, United States
OSPA Liaison:  M. Leila Mays, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • P - Planetary Sciences
  • SM - SPA-Magnetospheric Physics
Index Terms:

2134 Interplanetary magnetic fields [INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS]
7514 Energetic particles [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]
7984 Space radiation environment [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Development of the Chen Magnetic Cloud Prediction Algorithm for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting (231988)
Hazel M Bain, University of Colorado at Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, Douglas Alan Biesecker, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Michele D Cash, NOAA-Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, Alysha Reinard, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States and James Chen, Naval Research Lab, Washington, DC, United States
Assessing Space Weather Applications and Understanding: IMF Bz at L1 (293101)
Neel Savani, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States, Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, M. Leila Mays, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Hayley J Austin, Johns Hopkins University, Balitmore, MD, United States and CCMC International IMF Bz at L1 working team
Assessment of Predictive Capabilities of L1 Orbiters using Realtime Solar Wind Data (290299)
Janelle Holmes, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Justin Christophe Kasper, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, MA, United States and Daniel T Welling, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with SSC over Year of Solar Maximum during Cycle 23: 1. Identification of Related Sun-Earth Events (218718)
Benjamin Grison1, Karine Bocchialini2, Michel Menvielle3, Aude Chambodut4, Nicole Cornilleau-Wehrlin5, Dominique Fontaine6, Aurelie Marchaudon7, Monique Pick8, Frederic Pitout9, Brigitte Schmieder8, Stephane Regnier10 and Yannis Zouganelis11, (1)Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic, (2)IAS Institut d'Astrophysique Spatiale, Orsay Cedex, France, (3)LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales, Paris Cedex 05, France, (4)Institut Terre et Environnement de Strasbourg; UMR7063, Université de Strasbourg/EOST, CNRS, Strasbourg Cedex, France, (5)CNRS, Paris Cedex 16, France, (6)Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas (LPP), CNRS, Observatoire de Paris, Sorbonne Université, Université Paris-Saclay, Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 91120 Palaiseau, France, Palaiseau, France, (7)IRAP, Toulouse, France, (8)Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, Meudon, France, (9)IRAP, CNES/CNRS/Toulouse University, Toulouse, France., Toulouse, France, (10)Northumbria University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, United Kingdom, (11)European Space Agency, Villanueva De La Can, Spain
Statistical analysis of solar events associated with SSC over year of solar maximum during cycle 23: 2. Characterisation on the Sun-Earth path – Geoeffectiveness (209909)
Nicole Cornilleau-Wehrlin1, Karine Bocchialini2, Michel Menvielle3, Dominique Fontaine4, Benjamin Grison5, Aurelie Marchaudon6, Monique Pick7, Frederic Pitout8, Brigitte Schmieder7, Stephane Regnier9, Yannis Zouganelis10 and Aude Chambodut11, (1)CNRS, Paris Cedex 16, France, (2)IAS Institut d'Astrophysique Spatiale, Orsay Cedex, France, (3)LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales, Paris Cedex 05, France, (4)Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas (LPP), CNRS, Observatoire de Paris, Sorbonne Université, Université Paris-Saclay, Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 91120 Palaiseau, France, Palaiseau, France, (5)IAP, Prague 4, Czech Republic, (6)IRAP, Toulouse, France, (7)Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, Meudon, France, (8)IRAP, CNES/CNRS/Toulouse University, Toulouse, France., Toulouse, France, (9)Northumbria University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, United Kingdom, (10)European Space Agency, Villanueva De La Can, Spain, (11)Institut Terre et Environnement de Strasbourg; UMR7063, Université de Strasbourg/EOST, CNRS, Strasbourg Cedex, France
The Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service (HELCATS) project (290126)
Richard Anthony Harrison1, Jackie A Davies2, David Barnes2, Christopher H Perry3, Christian Moestl4, Alexis P Rouillard5, Volker Bothmer6, Luciano Rodriguez7, Jonathan P Eastwood8, K Emilia J Kilpua9, Peter Gallagher10, Dusan Odstrcil11 and the HELCATS team, (1)United Kingdom Research and Innovation - Science & Technology Facilities Council - Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Didcot, United Kingdom, (2)United Kingdom Research and Innovation - Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Didcot, United Kingdom, (3)RAL, Harwell, United Kingdom, (4)Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria, (5)IRAP, Toulouse, France, (6)University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany, (7)SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Uccle, Belgium, (8)Imperial College London, Physics, London, United Kingdom, (9)University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Helsinki, Finland, (10)Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland, (11)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States
NOAA SWPC / NASA CCMC Space Weather Modeling Assessment Project: Toward the Validation of Advancements in Heliospheric Space Weather Prediction Within WSA-Enlil (261556)
Eric T Adamson1, Victor J Pizzo1, Douglas Alan Biesecker2, M. Leila Mays3, Peter J MacNeice4, Aleksandre Taktakishvili5 and Rodney A Viereck1, (1)NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, (2)Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States, (5)Catholic University of America, Washington, United States
Sun-to-Earth simulations of geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA: a heliospheric-magnetospheric model chain approach  (249037)
Camilla Scolini1,2, Christine Verbeke3, Nat Gopalswamy4, Nicolas Wijsen1, Stefaan Poedts5, Marilena Mierla6,7, Luciano Rodriguez6, Jens Pomoell8, William D Cramer9 and Joachim Raeder9, (1)KU Leuven, Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, Leuven, Belgium, (2)Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, (3)KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, (4)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States, (5)KU Leuven, Centre for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, Leuven, Belgium, (6)SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Uccle, Belgium, (7)Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania, (8)University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, (9)University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States
How Interplanetary Scintillation Data Can Improve Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation (240065)
Aleksandre Taktakishvili1, M. Leila Mays1, Periasamy K Manoharan2, Lutz Rastaetter3 and Maria M Kuznetsova3, (1)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC/SWRC from 2010-2016 (263707)
Alexandra M Wold1,2, M. Leila Mays3, Aleksandre Taktakishvili4,5, Dusan Odstrcil6,7, Peter J MacNeice8 and Lan Jian7,9, (1)American University, Washington, United States, (2)University of Colorado at Boulder, Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, United States, (3)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Catholic University of America, Washington, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (7)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (8)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States, (9)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Radiation Risks From A Weak Field in the Coming Years (254720)
Fatemeh Rahmanifard, University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Space Science Center, Durham, NH, United States, Nathan Schwadron, Univ New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, Charles William Smith, University of New Hampshire, Durham, United States, Colin J Joyce, University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, NH, United States and Larry Townsend, Arlington, MA, United States
Dosimetry of a Deep-Space (Mars) Mission using Measurements from RAD on the Mars Science Laboratory (292466)
Don Hassler1, Cary Zeitlin2, Bent Ehresmann3, Robert F Wimmer-Schweingruber4, Jingnan Guo5, Daniel Matthiae6 and Gunther Reitz6, (1)Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Solar System Science & Exploration Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, United States, (3)Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, United States, (4)Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics (IEAP), Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (5)University of Kiel, Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Kiel, Germany, (6)DLR, Cologne, Germany
Preliminary Data Pipeline for SunRISE: Assessing the Performance of Space Based Radio Arrays (288418)
Alexander Michael Hegedus1, Justin Christophe Kasper2, Joseph Lazio3, Nikta Amiri4 and Jeffrey Stuart3, (1)Lunasonde Inc., Science, Tucson, United States, (2)Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Cambridge, MA, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (4)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Intriguing radiation signatures at aviation altitudes (263947)
W Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies, Space Systems Division, Pacific Palisades, CA, United States
Forecasting E > 50-MeV Proton Events with the Proton Prediction System (PPS) (226747)
Stephen W Kahler, Air Force Research Laboratory, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States, Stephen M White, AFRL, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States and Alan G Ling, Air Force Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Predicting SPE Fluxes: Coupled Simulations and Analysis Tools (299092)
Matthew Gorby1, Nathan Schwadron2, Jon Linker3, Ronald M. Caplan4, Janvier Wijaya3, Cooper Downs3 and Roberto Lionello3, (1)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, NH, United States, (2)Univ New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, (3)Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, (4)Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, United States
SEP modeling based on global heliospheric models at the CCMC (280111)
M. Leila Mays, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Janet G Luhmann, Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, Dusan Odstrcil, George Mason University, Fairfax, United States, Hazel M Bain, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Nathan Schwadron, Univ New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, Matthew Gorby, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, Yan Li, Univ California, Berkeley, United States, Kerry Lee, NASA Johnson Space Center, Space Radiation Analysis Group, Houston, TX, United States, Cary Zeitlin, NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, United States, Lan K. Jian, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Christina O Lee, University of California Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, Richard A. Mewaldt, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and Antoinette Broe Galvin, University of New Hampshire, Durham, United States

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