SH31D:
Space Weather Forecasting: Science, Operations, Future Missions, Missing Information, and the Economic Case I

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 31349

Session Description:
Society is ever-more reliant on energy supplies and technologies proving increasingly susceptible to everyday and extreme space weather (SW) (power grids, GNSS-positioning/timing, aviation/maritime/rail, communications, etc.).  The present solar cycle's SW has proven to be, perhaps surprisingly, mostly driven by solar-wind structures rather than CME events.

Following the highly-successful sessions at Fall-AGUs-2015/2016, this intends to follow-up and further expand/continue the assessment of state-of-the-art global SW forecasting capabilities and establish where additional-services/improvements are necessary to advance our SW forecast/prediction capabilities with a focus on Lagrange missions.

We solicit contributions of: provisions/justifications of suitable observations/measurements; model developments to utilize future missions' data; ongoing developments in SW forecasting; science from SW operational missions (SWFO/ESA-UK-L5/GOES/DSCOVR/etc.); and identifications of data/model gaps.  We also encourage submissions that quantify the economics of SW.  It is time to review the economic assessments status and identify the paths forward to further-improve the societal-economic case for SW research and operations.
Primary Convener:  Mario Mark Bisi, United Kingdom Research and Innovation - Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL Space, Didcot, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Antti A Pulkkinen, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Edward J. Oughton, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, Cambridge, United Kingdom and David F Webb, Boston College, ISR, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
Chairs:  Irfan Azeem, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States; NOAA NESDIS, Office of Space Weather Observations, Lanham, United States and Douglas Alan Biesecker, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Antti A Pulkkinen, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Heliophysics Science Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • P - Planetary Sciences
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • SA - SPA-Aeronomy
Index Terms:

4305 Space weather [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7594 Instruments and techniques [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7999 General or miscellaneous [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project) (Invited) (272867)
Stacey L Worman1, Susan Meredith Taylor2, Terrance G Onsager3, Jeffery E. Adkins4, Daniel N Baker5, Kevin F Forbes6, Dan Basoli7 and Olivia Griot7, (1)Abt Associates Bethesda, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Bethesda, MD, United States, (2)Abt Associates, Bethesda, MD, United States, (3)NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States, (4)NOAA, Silver Spring, United States, (5)University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, United States, (6)Catholic University, Washington, DC, United States, (7)Abt Associates, Cambridge, MA, United States
Testing Realistic Disaster Scenarios for Space Weather: The Economic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure in the UK (240920)
Mark Gibbs, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, Edward J. Oughton, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Michael A Hapgood, RAL Space and STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, United Kingdom
Mitigating Space Weather Impacts on the Power Grid in Real-Time: Applying 3-D EarthScope Magnetotelluric Data to Forecasting Reactive Power Loss in Power Transformers (292265)
L Roy Bonner IV, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States and Adam Schultz, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States
Prediction of CMEs and Type II Bursts from Sun to Earth (268954)
Iver Hugh Cairns, University of Sydney, School of Physics and ARC Training Centre for CubeSats, UAVs, and Their Applications (CUAVA), Sydney, NSW, Australia, Joachim Matthias Schmidt, State College, PA, United States and Nat Gopalswamy, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States
Predicting the Magnetic Properties of ICMEs: A Pragmatic View (280727)
Pete Riley1, Jon Linker1, Michal Ben-Nun2, Dr. Tibor Torok2, Roger K Ulrich3, Christopher T Russell4, Hairong Lai5, Curt A de Koning6, Victor J Pizzo6, Yang Liu7 and J Todd Hoeksema8, (1)Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, (2)Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, United States, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Astronomy, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (5)Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China, (6)NOAA Boulder, SWPC, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, United States, (8)Stanford University, HEPL, Stanford, CA, United States

See more of: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics