SH34B:
Advance Predictions of Solar Wind and Particle Radiation and the Consequences for Geoeffectiveness and Human Exploration

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Session ID#: 31357

Session Description:
Accurate prediction of solar wind conditions are necessary for long lead-time forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Not only is the arrival time of high speed streams and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at L1 critical, but also other quantities, such as IMF Bz and CME velocity of arrival, and particle radiation.  Particle radiation poses significant hazards for astronauts, satellites, aviators and passengers as well as produces affects on planetary bodies.  Radiation remains a factor that we must face through improved understanding and innovation of methodologies for prediction. Model validation with appropriate metrics allows the community to quantify advancements in predictive capabilities and science understanding. How successfully can various models or techniques predict solar wind and radiation conditions? In what aspects do the models perform well, and where do the models need improvement?
Primary Convener:  M. Leila Mays, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Conveners:  Nathan Schwadron, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, Christine Verbeke, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium and W Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies, Space Systems Division, Pacific Palisades, CA, United States
Chairs:  Christine Verbeke, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, Matthew John West, Royal Observatory Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, United States, Pete Riley, Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States and W Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies, Space Systems Division, Pacific Palisades, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  M. Leila Mays, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • P - Planetary Sciences
  • SM - SPA-Magnetospheric Physics
Index Terms:

2134 Interplanetary magnetic fields [INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS]
7514 Energetic particles [SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]
7984 Space radiation environment [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Issues in Forecasting CMEs (Invited) (276194)
Victor J Pizzo, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States
Reproducing the Magnetic Field of Near-Earth ICMEs (Invited) (211621)
Christina Kay, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States and Nat Gopalswamy, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States

Determining the Evolution and Propagation of CME Flux Ropes from the Sun to Earth (271790)

Dr. Erika Palmerio1, K Emilia J Kilpua2, Marilena Mierla3,4, Luciano Rodriguez4, Alexey Isavnin5 and Andrei Zhukov4,6, (1)Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA, United States, (2)University of Helsinki, Department of Physics, Helsinki, Finland, (3)Institute of Geodynamics of the Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania, (4)SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, (5)University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland, (6)Royal Observatory of Belgium, SIDC, Brussels, Belgium
Solar Atmosphere to Earth’s Surface: Long Lead Time dB/dt Predictions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (277801)
Daniel T Welling1, Ward Manchester2, Neel Savani3, Igor Sokolov2, Bart van der Holst2, Meng Jin4, Gabor Toth2, Michael Warren Liemohn1 and Tamas I Gombosi2, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, (3)University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States, (4)Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, Palo Alto, CA, United States
Exploration Consequences of Particle Radiation Environments at Airless Planetary Surfaces: Lessons Learned at the Moon by LRO/CRaTER and Scaling to Other Solar System Objects (Invited) (207460)
Harlan E Spence, University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, NH, United States and The NASA/LRO Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation Science Team
The Effect of Topography on the Exposure of Airless Bodies to Space Radiation: Phobos Case Study (287613)
Timothy John Stubbs1,2, Yongli Wang3, Jingnan Guo4, Nathan Schwadron5, John F Cooper1, Robert F Wimmer-Schweingruber6, Harlan E Spence7, Andrew Jordan7, Steven J. Sturner8, David A Glenar1,9 and Jody Keith Wilson10, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, United States, (3)University of Maryland Baltimore County, Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute, Baltimore, MD, United States, (4)University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (5)University of New Hampshire, Durham, United States, (6)Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics (IEAP), Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (7)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Space Science Center, Durham, NH, United States, (8)University of Maryland Baltimore County, CRESST/NASA GSFC Code 661, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (9)University of Maryland Baltimore County, CRESST, Baltimore, MD, United States, (10)University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Space Science Center, Durham, United States
The Charged Particle Environment on the Surface of Mars induced by Solar Energetic Particles - Five Years of Measurements with the MSL/RAD instrument (278117)
Bent Ehresmann1, Don Hassler2, Cary Zeitlin3, Jingnan Guo4, Christina O Lee5, Robert F Wimmer-Schweingruber6, Jan Kristoffer Appel7, Eckart Boehm7, Stephan I Boettcher8, David E Brinza9, Soenke Burmeister10, Henning Lohf7, Cesar Martin-Garcia11, Daniel Matthiae12, Scot CR Rafkin13 and Gunther Reitz12, (1)Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Solar System Science & Exploration Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, United States, (3)NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, United States, (4)University of Kiel, Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Kiel, Germany, (5)University of California Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (6)Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics (IEAP), Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (7)University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (8)University of Kiel, Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics, Kiel, Germany, (9)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (10)Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institute for Experimental and Applied Physics, Kiel, Germany, (11)IEAP, University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (12)DLR, Cologne, Germany, (13)Southwest Research Institute Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States

See more of: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics