GC33H:
Climate Variability and Change on Decadal to Multidecadal Timescales I

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Session ID#: 32455

Session Description:
Uncertainty in the trajectory of global mean surface temperature in the coming several decades due to internal climate variability is higher than the uncertainty from emissions scenarios. This has placed decadal climate variability and prediction firmly in the spotlight. It is crucial that we observe, model and predict the climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales and better understand the roles of internal and external climate forcing.

However, our understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability is limited by short and sparse observational records, differences in models, discrepancies between palaeoclimate reconstructions, and dynamical theories that have, at best, only partial scientific consensus. A complete understanding of decadal scale variability is likely to come from advances across atmospheric science, oceanography and palaeoclimatology. 

This interdisciplinary session will bring together our latest understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability and will discuss recent advances in understanding mechanisms, patterns, impacts and predictability on decadal timescales.

Primary Convener:  Benjamin Henley, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Convener:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Chairs:  Benjamin Henley, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Parkville, VIC, Australia and Vikram M Mehta, CRCES, Catonsville, MD, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:

3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4513 Decadal ocean variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons (231763)
Boyin Huang1, Peter Thorne2, Patria Viva F Banzon3, Gennady A Chepurin4, Jay H Lawrimore5, Matthew J Menne6, Russell S Vose7, Thomas M Smith8 and Huai-Min Zhang5, (1)NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI-NC, Asheville, United States, (2)National University of Ireland Maynooth, Geography, Maynooth, Ireland, (3)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States, (4)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, United States, (5)NOAA Asheville, Asheville, NC, United States, (6)NOAA National Centers for Environmenl Informatiotan, Asheville, NC, United States, (7)National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States, (8)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
The Pacific Ventilated Thermocline and its Influence on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Global Warming (225703)
Lauren Kuntz, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States and Daniel P Schrag, Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA, United States
Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming (218686)
Patrick T Brown, Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, Stanford, CA, United States, Yi Ming, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States, Wenhong Li, Duke Univ-Nicholas School, Durham, United States and Spencer A Hill, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to paleoclimate time scales (239602)
Hans W Linderholm, University of Gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden, Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, Peng Zhang, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea, Björn E Gunnarson, Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm, Sweden, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Chonnam National University, Department of Oceanography, Gwangju, South Korea and Hong-Li Ren, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
North-South Asymmetry of the 1900-2015 Warming (240937)
Petr Chylek, Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM, United States and Manvendra Krishna Dubey, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Societal Impacts of Natural Decadal Climate Variability - The Pacemakers of Civilizations (Invited) (209414)
Vikram M Mehta, Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Catonsville, MD, United States

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