GC34A:
Climate Variability and Change on Decadal to Multidecadal Timescales II

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 32461

Session Description:
Uncertainty in the trajectory of global mean surface temperature in the coming several decades due to internal climate variability is higher than the uncertainty from emissions scenarios. This has placed decadal climate variability and prediction firmly in the spotlight. It is crucial that we observe, model and predict the climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales and better understand the roles of internal and external climate forcing.

However, our understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability is limited by short and sparse observational records, differences in models, discrepancies between palaeoclimate reconstructions, and dynamical theories that have, at best, only partial scientific consensus. A complete understanding of decadal scale variability is likely to come from advances across atmospheric science, oceanography and palaeoclimatology. 

This interdisciplinary session will bring together our latest understanding of decadal to multi-decadal climate variability and will discuss recent advances in understanding mechanisms, patterns, impacts and predictability on decadal timescales.

Primary Convener:  Benjamin Henley, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Parkville, VIC, Australia
Convener:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Chairs:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom and Rosemary Eade, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
OSPA Liaison:  Christopher Kenneth Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:

1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4513 Decadal ocean variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Evaluating past and future changes in the seasonal characteristics of rainfall across Africa in CMIP5 climate models (214302)
Richard P Allan1, Caroline M Dunning2 and Emily Black2, (1)University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, (2)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise (244925)
Aixue Hu and Susan C Bates, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
­Assessing the causes of 20th century wetting in the eastern United States (221184)
Daniel A Bishop1,2, Park Williams3, Richard Seager4, Arlene M Fiore1,5, Benjamin Cook6,7, Justin S Mankin8,9, Deepti Singh1, Jason E Smerdon10 and Mukund Palat Rao11,12, (1)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Columbia University of New York, Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY, United States, (3)Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (5)Columbia University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Palisades, NY, United States, (6)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (7)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (8)Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States, (9)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (10)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (11)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Barcelona, Spain, (12)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, United States
Decadal Detectability of Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America (289538)
Honghai Zhang, Princeton University, AOS, Princeton, NJ, United States and Thomas L Delworth, GFDL, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States
Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios (274271)
Shaina Sadai, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Geosciences, Amherst, United States, Alan Condron, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Rob DeConto, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Earth, Geographic and Climate Sciences, Amherst, MA, United States and David Pollard, Pennsylvania State University, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States
A Signal to Noise Paradox in Climate Predictions (Invited) (223224)
Rosemary Eade1, Adam A Scaife2, Doug M Smith1, Nick J Dunstone1, Craig MacLachlan1, Leon Hermanson1 and Comer Ruth1, (1)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (2)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom

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