GC24D:
Interpretation and Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models and Observations I

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Session ID#: 32507

Session Description:
Interpreting climate simulations, associated observational data, and assessing their uncertainties are essential to understanding changes in atmospheric, land, oceanic, and socio-economic systems and processes. Quantified uncertainty is needed to identify human-induced causes of climate change, to attribute the occurrence of extreme weather events to anthropogenic factors as well as to predict the impact of the evolving polar climate. We seek contributions in model interpretation, evaluation of models against observations, as well as studies that identify, quantify, or interpret uncertainty in climate models and/or observations. Contributions may address models and observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We welcome all studies that use these models in forecasting, sensitivity analyses, data assimilation and statistical inverse problems.
Primary Convener:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Conveners:  Maoyi Huang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States, Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Chairs:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States, Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States and Maoyi Huang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Structural Model Error and Decision Relevancy (Invited) (261063)
Michael Goldsby, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States and Greg Lusk, University of Chicago, Philosophy, Chicago, IL, United States
Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change Detection and Attribution Studies (Invited) (287014)
Benjamin D Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level Rise: Exploration of Model Response to Errors in Climate Forcing, Boundary Conditions, and Internal Parameters (294331)
Nicole Jeanne Schlegel, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Helene L Seroussi, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Carmen Blackwood, Jet Propulsion Lab, Pasadena, CA, United States, Eric Y Larour, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, Daniel Limonadi, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, Michael Schodlok, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States and Michael M Watkins, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Uncertainty in the Future of Seasonal Snowpack over North America. (295448)
Rachel Rose McCrary, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Linda Mearns, NCAR, RAL, Boulder, CO, United States

See more of: Global Environmental Change