GC42B:
Toward Better Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Variability: From Ecosystem Processes to Agricultural Adaptation and Decision I

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Session ID#: 32567

Session Description:
Climate variability (CV) is a critical driver of year-to-year impacts on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. To properly understand its ecological impacts, it’s necessary to quantify how ecosystems have historically responded to climate variability, and to characterize the uncertainty in projected impacts. In agricultural systems, assessing impacts of climate variability also requires understanding dynamics of farmer adaptation and decision-making. Here we seek new efforts to quantify both historical and future impacts of CV on unmanaged ecosystems and agriculture, the most extensive managed ecosystem: i) empirical/process-based methods for estimating CV impacts to ecosystems across multiple spatio-temporal scales; ii) identifying key sources of CV and methodological factors leading to uncertainty and their related impacts; iii) new CV forecasting methods at relevant scales for understanding ecosystem response; iv) translating forecasts into useful decision support for natural resource managers and farmers; v) attributing farmer responses to CV with respect to socioeconomic and ecological circumstances.
Primary Convener:  Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States
Conveners:  Sharon Gourdji, National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, Gaithersburg, MD, United States and Jeff Atkins, Virginia Commonwealth University, Biology, Richmond, United States
Chairs:  Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States and Sharon Gourdji, National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, Gaithersburg, MD, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Sharon Gourdji, National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, Gaithersburg, MD, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1640 Remote sensing [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Global gridded crop specific agricultural areas from 1961-2014 (Invited) (208374)
Megan Konar, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, United States and Nicole D Jackson, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States
Can Canals Effectively Replace Groundwater Irrigation in Over-exploited Regions in India? (Invited) (212627)
Meha Jain1, Ram Fishman2, Pinki Mondal3, Gillian L Galford4, Nishan Bhattarai1, Shahid Naeem5 and Ruth S DeFries5, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, School for Environment and Sustainability, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel, (3)University of Delaware, Newark, United States, (4)University of Vermont, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, Burlington, VT, United States, (5)Columbia University, Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, New York, NY, United States
Variability in soybean yield in Brazil stemming from the interaction of heterogeneous management and climate variability (298587)
Avery Cohn, Tufts University, The Fletcher School, Medford, MA, United States, Arthur Bragança, TRACES, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Graham Robert Jeffries, Tufts University, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Medford, MA, United States
Statistical analysis of corn yields responding to climate variability at various spatio-temporal resolutions (247183)
Hao Jiang and Tao Lin, Zhejiang University, College of Biosystems Engineering and Food Science, Hangzhou, China
Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model (253311)
Bin Peng1, Kaiyu Guan2, Min Chen3, David M Lawrence4, Zhenong Jin5, Carl Bernacchi6,7, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth7,8, Evan H DeLucia9,10, Danica L. Lombardozzi11 and Yaqiong Lu12, (1)University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Department of Crop Sciences, Urbana, United States, (2)University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, Urbana, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin Madison, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, Madison, WI, United States, (4)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (5)Peking University, The Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Beijing, China, (6)University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Department of Plant Biology; Carl. R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology;, Urbana, United States, (7)United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service, Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, Urbana, United States, (8)University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Department of Plant Biology and Carl. R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, Urbana, United States, (9)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment, Urbana, United States, (10)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Plant Biology and Carl. R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, Urbana, United States, (11)National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD, Boulder, United States, (12)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States

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