NH23B:
Advances in PSHA Models, Methods, and Data I
Submit an Abstract to this Session
Session ID#: 33772
Session Description:
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was established a half century ago, and has since been widely used for seismic hazard, as the basis for building codes and for seismic risk analysis. Significant improvements in both source and ground motion modeling, such as gridded smoothed seismicity models, geodetic-based strain rate informed models, time-dependent models, and regional GMPEs have been made. The use of logic trees, and other tools, has allowed modelers to combine diverse ideas to produce more informative hazard estimates. However, challenges remain. Assumptions about, for example, magnitude scaling, earthquake rates on faults, Mmax, and GMPE suitability, are necessary due to incompleteness of data, and lack of understanding and oversimplification of complex earthquake phenomena. We invite presentations that explore traditional and innovative PSHA modeling, including new databases, assumptions and uncertainties, and how they impact seismic hazard results, risk management, and decision making.
Primary Convener: Harold Magistrale, FM, Research Division, Norwood, United States
Conveners: Yufang Rong, FM Global Research, Norwood, MA, United States and Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Chairs: Harold Magistrale, FM, Research Division, Norwood, United States and Yufang Rong, FM, Research Division, Norwood, United States
OSPA Liaison: Harold Magistrale, FM, Research Division, Norwood, United States
Abstracts Submitted to this Session:
Warner Marzocchi1, Carlo Meletti2, Dario Albarello3, Vera D'Amico2, Lucia Luzi4, Francesco Martinelli5, Bruno Pace6, Maurizio Pignone7, Andrea Rovida8, Francesco Visini5 and MPS16 Working Group, (1)University of Naples Federico II, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, Naples, Italy, (2)INGV, Pisa, Italy, (3)University of Siena, Siena, Italy, (4)INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Milan, Italy, (5)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, Italy, (6)Dipartimento di Scienze Pisicologiche, della Salute e del Territorio (DiSPUTer), Università G. d’Annunzio Chieti-Pescara, Chieti, Italy, (7)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy, (8)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Palermo, Italy
Scott Callaghan1, Philip J Maechling2, Christine A. Goulet2, Kevin R Milner3, Robert W Graves4, Kim Bak Olsen5, Thomas H Jordan2 and CyberShake Collaboration, (1)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States, (2)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA, United States, (5)San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States
Céline Beauval, ISTerre Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Martin d'Hères, France, Judith Mariniere, ISTerre - Grenoble University, Grenoble, France, Hugo A Yepes, Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, Audin Laurence, IRD, CNRS, Université Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, Grenoble, France, Jean Mathieu Nocquet, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD, Valbonne, France, Alexandra Alvarado, Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, Stéphane Baize, IRSN Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay Aux Roses Cedex, France, Jorge Aguilar, Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Volcanología, Quito, Ecuador, Juan Carlos Singaucho, Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador and Hervé Jomard, IRSN, Bureau d'évaluation des risques sismiques pour la sûreté des installations, Fontenay Aux Roses Cedex, France
Yufang Rong1, Xiwei Xu2, Guihua Chen2, Jia Cheng3, Harold Magistrale4 and Zheng-Kang Shen5, (1)FM Global Research, Norwood, MA, United States, (2)Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, (3)China Earthquake Networks Center, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, (4)FM, Research Division, Norwood, United States, (5)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Kris Vanneste1, Seth Stein2, Thierry Camelbeeck3 and Bart Vleminckx1, (1)Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium, (2)Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, (3)Royal Observatory of Belgium, Seismology-Gravimetry, Brussels, Belgium
