NH41E:
Wicked Problems and Deep Uncertainties: Tough Challenges in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation I

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 33848

Session Description:
Natural disasters claim lives and cause billions of dollars of losses around the world. Assessing and mitigating these hazards challenges societies with "wicked" problems, in which crucial information is missing and proposed solutions involve complex interactions with other societal goals. For example: How should we prepare for a great earthquake in areas where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How can we assess the hazard when the recurrence of large earthquakes, floods, or hurricanes is changing with time or is expected to do so? This session delves into the scientific and business issues, utilizing state‐of‐the‐art methods and advanced analytics for better understanding, quantification, and management of natural hazards and risks. We invite contributions from disciplines including hydrology, atmospheric sciences, seismology, computer sciences, machine learning, insurance and risk management.
Primary Convener:  Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States
Conveners:  Michael S Steckler, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Hamed Ashouri, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States and Upmanu Lall, Columbia University of New York, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
Chairs:  Hamed Ashouri, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States and Michael S Steckler, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Upmanu Lall, Columbia University of New York, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • G - Geodesy
  • S - Seismology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
  • T - Tectonophysics
Index Terms:

4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Wicked Problems in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation (236444)
Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States, Michael S Steckler, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, John B Rundle, UC Davis, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Davis, CA, United States and Timothy H Dixon, University of South Florida, School of Geosciences, Tampa, United States
The HayWired Scenario - How Can the San Francisco Bay Region Bounce Back Better? (216202)
Ken W Hudnut, USGS, Pasadena Field Office, Pasadena, CA, United States, Anne M Wein, U. S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Moffett Field, United States, Dale A Cox, U.S. Geological Survey, Sacramento, CA, United States, Suzanne C Perry, USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States, Keith Porter, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Laurie A. Johnson, Laurie Johnson Consulting | Research, San Francisco, CA, United States and Jennifer Ann Strauss, UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Risk Management in Earthquakes, Financial Markets, and the Game of 21: The role of Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Timecasting (Invited) (209019)
John B Rundle, University of California Davis, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Davis, CA, United States
Natural Hazard Resilience – A Large-scale Transdisciplinary “National Science Challenge” for New Zealand (218249)
Shane J Cronin, University of Auckland, School of Environment, Auckland, New Zealand; GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Director - Resilience to Nature's Challenges - National Science Challenge, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh (229036)
Syed Humayun Akhter, University of Dhaka, Department of Geology, Dhaka, Bangladesh, Michael S Steckler, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States and Leonardo Seeber, Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling (Invited) (213614)
Mark D Powell, RMS Risk Management Solutions London, Tallahassee, FL, UNITED STATES
Creating a Flood Risk Index to Improve Community Resilience (285077)
Kelly Klima, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, United States and Lobna El Gammal, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
BN-FLEMOps pluvial - A probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods (224930)
Viktor Roezer1, Heidi Kreibich2, Kai Schroeter3, James Doss-Gollin4, Upmanu Lall5 and Bruno Merz1, (1)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany, (2)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 4.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany, (3)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany, (4)Rice University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States, (5)Columbia University of New York, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States

See more of: Natural Hazards