C11D:
Polar Climate: Processes and Predictability I

Submit an Abstract to this Session



Session ID#: 34156

Session Description:
Accurate polar climate prediction on seasonal to multidecadal timescales could benefit a wide range of stakeholders, from local residents to governmental policy makers. Yet few modeling studies have predicted recent changes in the Arctic or Antarctic with fidelity. In this session, we seek studies that identify sources of predictability, evaluate causes of variability, and characterize uncertainty in polar climate prediction. We also welcome studies that link polar climate predictability to extrapolar phenomena. This session aims to connect scientists across a wide range of disciplines – those studying land ice, sea ice, ocean, atmosphere, and their coupling – whose research has furthered our understanding of Arctic or Antarctic climates.
Primary Convener:  Hansi Alice Singh, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States
Conveners:  Cecilia M Bitz, University of Washington, Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, Sarah G Purkey, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States and Jeremy Garmeson Fyke, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Chairs:  Hansi Alice Singh, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States and Sarah G Purkey, University of California San Diego, San Diego, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Hansi Alice Singh, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

0738 Ice [CRYOSPHERE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3349 Polar meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4207 Arctic and Antarctic oceanography [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation? (266149)
Paul J Kushner1, Stephanie Ella Hay1, Russell Blackport2, Kelly E McCusker3 and Thomas Oudar4, (1)University of Toronto, Physics, Toronto, ON, Canada, (2)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)Rhodium Group, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
The relationship between Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate (227098)
Wei Liu, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States and Alexey V Fedorov, Yale University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States
An Investigation of the Radiative Effects and Climate Feedbacks of Sea Ice Sources of Sea Salt Aerosol (297662)
Hannah Marie Horowitz1, Becky Alexander2, Cecilia M Bitz3, Lyatt Jaegle2 and Susannah M Burrows4, (1)Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States, (2)University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, (3)University of Washington, Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Regional Arctic sea-ice prediction: A direct comparison of potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill (297909)
Mitchell Bushuk1, Rym Msadek2, Michael Winton3, Gabriel Vecchi4, Rich Gudgel5, Anthony John Rosati3 and Xiaosong Yang6, (1)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (2)CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse, France, (3)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and at the Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States, (5)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (6)NOAA, GFDL, Princeton, United States
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions (277161)
Keith Haines1, Nathanael Melia2, Ed Hawkins3 and Jonathan J Day2, (1)University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom, (2)University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, (3)University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom
Changing predictability characteristics of Arctic sea ice in a warming climate (226630)
Marika M Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, United States, Laura Landrum, NCAR, Boulder, United States, John Mioduszewski, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, United States, Stephen J Vavrus, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States and Muyin Wang, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, Seattle, United States

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