H21N:
Diagnostics, Sensitivity, and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Models I

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Session ID#: 34913

Session Description:
Environmental models are key monitoring and prediction tools used in science and engineering. Complex models not only have uncertain inputs and structure, which propagate into uncertain model outputs, but also continually increase in computation demand. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses (SA/UA) are hence used to understand model structure, characterize uncertainties, and reduce the computational load of such models. This session invites contributions on both theory and application of SA/UA methods, that may include but are not limited to parameter estimation, input data uncertainty quantification, algorithmic improvements, dimensionality reductions, approximation techniques, surrogate models, or surrogate assisted methods.

Particular topics of interest include (but are not limited to):

  • Methods for better understanding and characterization of “uncertainty” and “sensitivity”
  • Strategies for a more comprehensive SA/UA (e.g., multi-criteria SA)
  • Role of data and epistemic errors in model SA/UA
  • Methods for improving computational efficiency of SA/UA (e.g. surrogate modeling)
  • Spatial and/or temporal variation of SA/UA
Primary Convener:  Juliane Mai, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Conveners:  Kimberly C Brumble, University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada, Amin Haghnegahdar, University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada and Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Chairs:  Juliane Mai1, Bryan Tolson1, Amin Haghnegahdar2 and Kimberly C Brumble3, (1)University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada(2)University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada(3)University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada
OSPA Liaison:  Mary C Hill, University of Kansas, Geology, Lawrence, KS, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
Index Terms:

0430 Computational methods and data processing [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1805 Computational hydrology [HYDROLOGY]
1846 Model calibration [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Sharing tools and best practice in Global Sensitivity Analysis within academia and with industry (Invited) (239914)
Thorsten Wagener, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, Francesca Pianosi, University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom, Valentina Noacco, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom and Fanny Sarrazin, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom
Sensitivity-Based Guided Model Calibration (211986)
Mohammad Semnani and Masoud Asadzadeh, University of Manitoba, Department of Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Moving Beyond Streamflow Observations: Lessons From A Multi-Objective Calibration Experiment in the Mississippi Basin (226290)
Akash Koppa, University of Maryland College Park, Dept. of Environmental Science & Technology, Maryland, United States, Prof. Mekonnen K Gebremichael, PhD, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States and William W-G Yeh, University of California Los Angeles, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Streamflow Prediction Using Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms: San Joaquin California (297213)
Manashi Paul, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Masoud Negahban-Azar, University of Maryland College Park, Environmental Science and Technology, College Park, MD, United States
Sensitivity analyses of a global flood model in different geoclimatic regions (238535)
Cain Moylan, University of Bristol, Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, Jeffrey C Neal, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, Jim E Freer, University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Laboratory, Canmore, AB, Canada, Francesca Pianosi, University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom, Thorsten Wagener, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Christopher Charles Sampson, SSBN Ltd, Bristol, United Kingdom and Andy Smith, Fathom, Bristol, United Kingdom

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