OS41B:
Numerical Model Performance Metrics I

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Session ID#: 35264

Session Description:
With advances in numerical modelling of ocean and atmosphere particularly for operational forecasting products, there is clearly a need to include model metrics that portray the certainty of these products.  The reality is that numerical prediction will never be perfect, but there are increasing demands from operational users on metrics of forecast accuracy.  As well, model performance of certain parameters may be key to understanding how models handle certain processes or how sensitive certain state variables are to these processes.  This session addresses methods for assessing model state variables as well as derived products regarding predictions of a variety of conditions including weather, flooding, ocean surge, ocean surface waves, marine boundary layer effects, deep ocean structure, and ocean acoustics, just to name a few.  Time scales present its own challenges be it from a few hours to climate scales.  Spatial scales include littoral to global domains.  Metric methods may address deterministic and ensemble forecasting.  Attention may also be paid to the assessment of tightly coupled modelling systems.
Primary Convener:  James D Dykes, US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States
Conveners:  James G Richman, Florida State University, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL, United States, Andrea C Mask, Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States and James L Kinter, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Chairs:  James D Dykes, US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States and James G Richman, Florida State University, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Andrea C Mask, Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1922 Forecasting [INFORMATICS]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Model assessment using a multi-metric ranking technique (260411)
Patrick J Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, Yee Lau, Mississippi State University, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, United States, Ghassan Alaka, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Key Biscayne, United States and Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Key Biscayne, FL, United States
Multi-model Ensemble of Ocean Data Assimilation Products in The Northwestern Pacific and Their Quality Assessment (228047)
Osamu Isoguchi, RESTEC Remote Sensing Technology Center of Japan, Tokyo, Japan, Kai Matsui, JAXA, Tsukuba, Japan, Masafumi Kamachi, JAMSTEC, Yokahama, Japan; JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, Norihisa Usui, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan, Yasumasa Miyazawa, JAMSTEC, Application Laboratory, Yokohama, Japan, Yoichi Ishikawa, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan and Naoki Hirose, Kyushu University, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Fukuoka, Japan
The Characteristics of Kelvin waves in the Navy Global Coupled System (227124)
Maria K. Flatau1, Darek Baranowski2, Neil P Barton1, Sue Chen3, Piotr J Flatau4, Matthew Janiga1, Carolyn A. Reynolds5 and James A Ridout6, (1)US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)Naval Resarch Laboratory, Monterey, CA, United States, (4)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (5)NRL, Monterey, CA, United States, (6)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States
A Quantitative Test for Tropical Ocean Models Based on Explicit Expressions for Zonally Propagating Baroclinic Waves (213910)
Ofer Shamir1, Nathan Paldor1 and Pierre Bénard2, (1)Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel, (2)Météo-France Toulouse, Toulouse Cedex 01, France
Frontal Representation as a Metric of Model Performance (232366)
Elizabeth Douglass, US Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Sciences Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States and Andrea C Mask, Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
A Skill Score of Trajectory Model Evaluation Using Reinitialized Series of Normalized Cumulative Lagrangian Separation (231869)
Yonggang Liu and Robert H Weisberg, University of South Florida, College of Marine Science, St. Petersburg, United States
A methodology for spectral wave model evaluation (241918)
Sunni Siqueira Schoenauer, Vencore Services and Solutions, Inc., Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, Kacey L Edwards, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States and W. Erick Rogers, Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Sciences Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
Modal Dynamics of the Baroclinic Tide in 1/12.5 and 1/25 Degree Global HYCOM (296911)
Gordon Stephenson, University of Southern Mississippi, Department of Marine Science, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States and Maarten C Buijsman, University of Southern Mississippi, Division of Marine Science, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States

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