B51B:
Advances and Opportunities in Forecasting and Data-Model Integration: Approaches for Reducing Complexity and Improving Predictive Understanding in Biogeochemical Models of the Earth System II Posters

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Session ID#: 35332

Session Description:
Terrestrial biogeochemical studies have increasingly focused on making quantitative forecasts, taking advantage of substantial increases in data availability, surges in computational capability and advances in terrestrial biosphere modeling. Process understanding has improved via theoretical and empirical analyses; so too have the methods for incorporating complex biological processes into models. However, major uncertainties remain in current and future projections of feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and climate. Many conceptual and technical challenges must be overcome to improve our ability to make predictions, such as the need for improvements in theories and models, data assimilation, targeted reductions in data deficiencies, and the quantification, propagation, and analysis of uncertainties. This session aims to highlight cutting-edge research in terrestrial biosphere modeling and model-data integration, both for reducing model uncertainty and complexity, and for improving our predictive understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes in response to global change.
Primary Convener:  Natasha MacBean, Western University, Department of Geography & Environment and Department of Biology, London, Canada
Conveners:  Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, Lifen Jiang, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States and Istem Fer, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States
Chairs:  Istem Fer, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States, Lifen Jiang, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, Natasha MacBean, Western University, Department of Geography & Environment and Department of Biology, London, Canada and Margaret S Torn, Berkeley Lab/UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Istem Fer, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
Index Terms:

0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0430 Computational methods and data processing [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1910 Data assimilation, integration and fusion [INFORMATICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Investigate the plant biomass response to climate warming in permafrost ecosystem using matrix-based data assimilation  (299456)
Xingjie Lu, Sun Yat-sen University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Guangzhou, China, Zhenggang Du, Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China, Edward Schuur, Northern Arizona University, Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (ECOSS), Flagstaff, AZ, United States and Yiqi Luo, Northern Arizona University, Center for Ecosystem Sciences and Society (ECOSS), Flagstaff, United States
Simulation of leaf area index on site scale based on model data fusion (250022)
Yihan Yang and Jun-Bang Wang, IGSNRR Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China
Obtaining big data of vegetation using artificial neural network (238841)
Takeshi Ise, Mari Minagawa and Masanori Onishi, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Photosynthetic capacity regulation is uncoupled from nutrient limitation (253443)
Nicholas G Smith, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, United States, Prof. Trevor F Keenan, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, Iain Colin Prentice, Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom and Han Wang, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China
Within-species patterns challenge our understanding of the causes and consequences of trait variation with implications for trait-based models (279644)
Leander DL Anderegg, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Logan T. Berner, Northern Arizona University, SICCS, Flagstaff, United States, Grayson Badgley, Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, Stanford, CA, United States, Janneke Hillerislambers, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Biology, Seattle, WA, United States and Beverly Elizabeth Law, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Drivers of spatial heterogeneity in nitrogen processing among three alpine plant communities in the Rocky Mountains (280708)
Amber C Churchill, University of Western Sydney, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Penrith, NSW, Australia, Aidan Beers, University of Colorado at Boulder, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Boulder, CO, United States, Josh Grinath, University of Colorado at Boulder, INSTAAR, Boulder, CO, United States and William D Bowman, Washington, DC, United States
Forecasting Vulnerability to Drought-related Mortality in Western US Forests (260475)
Polly Buotte, University of California, Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, United States, Beverly Elizabeth Law, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States and Tara W Hudiburg, University of Idaho, Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences, Moscow, ID, United States
From the Lab to the Model: Using Historical Data to Forecast and Understand Harmful Algal Blooms (295175)
Owen M Doherty, Eagle Rock Analytics, Sacramento, United States, Christopher Gobler, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Theresa K Hattenrath-Lehmann, Wadsworth Center, Albany, NY, United States, Andrew William Griffith, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Southampton, NY, United States, Timothy W Davis, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, United States and Yoonja Kang, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Improving Ecological Forecasting: Data Assimilation Enhances the Ecological Forecast Horizon of a Complex Food Web (289821)
Elias Charbel Massoud, University of California Berkeley, Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, Berkeley, United States, Jef Huisman, University of Amsterdam, Department of Freshwater and Marine Ecology, Amsterdam, Netherlands, Elisa Benincà, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, Netherlands, Willem Bouten, University of Amsterdam, Institute for Advanced Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands and Jasper A Vrugt, UC-Irvine, Irvine, United States
The Estimation Modelling of Damaged Areas by Harmful Animals (299739)
Minjun Sung1, Jinhoo Hwang2, Raeik Jang2 and Seong-Woo Jeon3, (1)Korea University, Environmental Science & Ecological Plannings, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Korea University, Seoul, South Korea, (3)Korea university, Seoul Special City, South Korea

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