SM31E:
Quantifying Uncertainty in Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting I Posters


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 44284

Session Description:
Dynamic solar outputs including flares, high-speed solar wind, and coronal mass ejections, drive responses in geospace that can have deleterious effects on technological systems. Further, upward propagation of atmospheric waves and tides produces natural variability in Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere. Many types of models are used to forecast, nowcast, or hindcast, space weather relevant quantities, but the uncertainty of these predictions is often not quantified or reported. Simulations of varying complexity are key to our understanding of the physics that drives space weather, and any simulation or forecast has uncertainty which can arise from a number of sources. These sources include uncertainties in the initial condition, uncertainties in input data, and approximations made in the construction of the model. The goal of this session is to showcase new research in ensemble modeling, probabilistic forecasting, model sensitivity studies, and other approaches to improve uncertainty quantification in space weather modeling and forecasting.
Primary Convener:  Steven Morley, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Science and Applications, Los Alamos, United States
Conveners:  Gang Lu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States and Sophie A. Murray, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Primary Liaison:  Steven Morley, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Science and Applications, Los Alamos, United States
Chairs:  Gang Lu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, CO, United States and Sophie A. Murray, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
OSPA Liaison:  Sophie A. Murray, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Co-Organized with:
SPA-Magnetospheric Physics, SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics, and SPA-Aeronomy

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • SA - SPA-Aeronomy
  • SH - SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics
Index Terms:

1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7959 Models [SPACE WEATHER]
7999 General or miscellaneous [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The Effects of Uncertainty in CME Initial Parameters on Space Weather Predictions (363234)
Christina Kay, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States and Nat Gopalswamy, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States
Identifying uncertainties in L1 measurements as predictors of conditions at the magnetopause (425085)
Brian Walsh and Tanapat Bhakyapaibul, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
Assessment of Predictive Capabilities of L1 Monitors using Dst Index (450989)
Janelle Holmes, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States and Justin Christophe Kasper, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
Ion And Electron Flux Predictions for the Inner Magnetosphere: Improved Energy and Spatial Coverage (347859)
Matt Taylor, European Space Agency, Villanueva De La Can, Spain, Mick Denton, Space Science Institute Los Alamos, Los Alamos, NM, United States, Michael G Henderson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States and Juan V Rodriguez, University of Colorado Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, United States
Uncertainty Assessment of Radiation Belt Models at CCMC (444785)
Yihua Zheng1, Adam C Kellerman2, Mei-Ching Hannah Fok3 and Lutz Rastaetter1, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
Assessing the consistency of data-driven whistler mode hiss wave scattering effects during storm-recovery via dedicated error metrics (380045)
Vivien Loridan1, Jean-Francois Ripoll1, Michael Denton2, Ondrej Santolik3, Scott Thaller4, Alexander Drozdov5, Yuri Shprits5, Gregory Cunningham6, Geoffrey D Reeves6 and Steven Morley7, (1)CEA/DAM- ILE DE FRANCE, Arpajon, France, (2)New Mexico Consortium, Space Science, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (3)Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, (4)University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, (5)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, (6)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (7)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space Science and Applications, Los Alamos, United States
Data Assimilation using 4D-Var for the Radiation Belt Environment (449569)
Humberto C Godinez and Michael G Henderson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Reanalysis of Long Term Radiation Belt Electron Fluxes Relying on Four Spacecraft, the VERB Code, and a Sequential Kalman Filter (429275)
Juan Sebastian Cervantes Villa1, Yuri Shprits2, Adam C Kellerman3 and Alexander Drozdov2, (1)Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
Survey of Equatorial Fast Magnetosonic Waves Observed by RBSP (462128)
Hongjiang Wei1, Lun Xie2, Zuyin Pu2, Ying Xiong3 and Jinxing Li4, (1)Peking University, Beijing, China, (2)Peking University, Institute of Space Physics and Applied Technology, Beijing, China, (3)Southern University of Science and Technology, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Shenzhen, China, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
Uncertainty Analysis in Absolute Detection Efficiency of Coincident Particle Instrumentation (400376)
Brian Larsen1,2, Brian Phillip Weaver3, David K Olson2, Herbert O Funsten2, Ruth M. Skoug3 and Philip A Fernandes3, (1)The New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (3)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
Comparison of Magnetic Field Measurements across the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) (464262)
Frederick J Rich, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, United States
Implications of Forecasting Thermosphere-Ionosphere Conditions After Initiation of an Eruptive Solar Event (432009)
Anthony J Mannucci1, Bruce Tsurutani2, Olga P Verkhoglyadova2, Xing Meng3, Ryan Michael McGranaghan4, Chunming Wang5, Gary Rosen5, Surja Sharma6 and Ja Soon Shim7, (1)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (4)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (5)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (6)University of Maryland College Park, Montgomery Village, MD, United States, (7)Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States
Comparison between operational and research simulations with CTIPe model during geomagnetic storm conditions (404577)
Isabel Fernandez-Gomez, German Aerospace Center Neustrelitz, Neustrelitz, Germany, Mihail Codrescu, SWPC/NOAA, Boulder, United States, Mariangel Fedrizzi, NOAA/SWPC - University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States and Claudia Borries, Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Neustrelitz, Germany
CAMEL: Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (433399)
Richard Mullinix1, Lutz Rastaetter1, Chiu Wiegand2, Peter J MacNeice3, Justin M Boblitt4 and Maria M Kuznetsova5, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Community Coordinated Modeling Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (3)NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, United States, (4)Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (5)NASA/GSFC, Community Coordinated Modeling Center, Greenbelt, United States
Application Usability Levels: Their evolution and eco-system (406838)
Dr. Alexa Jean Halford, PhD. 1, Adam C Kellerman2, James Parker McCollough II3, Jeff Klenzing1, Katherine Garcia-Sage1, Brett A Carter4, Daniel T Welling5, Barbara J Thompson6, Antti A Pulkkinen7 and The Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress Working Group, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (3)Air Force Research Laboratory, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States, (4)RMIT University, SPACE Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, (5)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (6)NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States, (7)NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States

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