A065:
Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Climate Change Signal, Extremes and Compound Events at various Spatio-Temporal Scales



Session ID#: 49228

Session Description:
Several large ensemble model simulations, either from Global Climate Models (GCM) or Regional Climate Models (RCM), have been generated over the recent years. They are breaking ground to investigate natural climate variability and how climate change signals may emerge from natural variability at various spatio-temporal scales. Combining large ensemble simulations also provides long time series to investigate the dynamics of hydro-meteorological extremes and to assess compound events (e.g., successive or simultaneous extreme events, or events resulting in extremes only when combined) under conditions of climate change. This session welcomes studies using large GCM or RCM ensembles and looking at one or more of the following topics: 1) impacts of natural climate variability; 2) assessment of extreme event occurrence in historical and future climate; 3) development of projections for various compound events; 4) comparison of large ensembles including uncertainty assessment; and 5) novel methods for efficient analyses and post-processing.
Primary Conveners:  Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique-Eau Terre Environnement INRS-ETE, Quebec City, QC, Canada
Conveners:  Emma E. Aalbers, Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands, Martin Leduc, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada and Ralf Ludwig, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany
Primary Liaisons:  Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada
Index Terms:

3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3355 Regional modeling [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Martin Leduc1, Alain Mailhot2, Jonathan Jalbert3, Elizaveta Pechenova4, Ludwig Hüttenhofer4, Anne Frigon5 and Ralf Ludwig6, (1)Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, (3)Polytechnique Montréal, Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, Montreal, Canada, (4)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (5)Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal, QC, Canada, (6)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany
Patinya Hanittinan1, Yasuto Tachikawa2, Yutaka Ichikawa3, Kazuaki Yorozu4 and Teerawat Ram-Indra4, (1)Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, (2)Dept. of Civil and Earth Resources Eng., Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, (3)Kyoto University, Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto, Japan, (4)Kyoto University, Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto, Japan
Andrea Dittus and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Ben Kravitz1, Abigail Snyder2, Robert P Link3, Ben P Bond-Lamberty4 and Corinne Hartin2, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States, (4)Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States
Shingo Watanabe1, Mikiko Fujita2, Sho Kawazoe1, Shiori Sugimoto2, Yasuko Okada3, Ryo Mizuta4 and Masayoshi Ishii4, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, (2)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, (3)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (4)Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Silvia Innocenti, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique-Eau Terre Environnement INRS-ETE, Quebec City, QC, Canada, Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, Anne Frigon, Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal, QC, Canada, Alex J. Cannon, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC, Canada and Martin Leduc, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
Fabian von Trentini1, Raul R. Wood2, Florian Willkofer2 and Ralf Ludwig2, (1)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (2)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany
Timo Kelder1, Malte Müller1 and Patrik Bohlinger2, (1)Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, (2)University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Yann Chavaillaz1, Damon Matthews2, Philippe Roy3 and Diane Chaumont1, (1)Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada, (3)Ouranos, Montréal, QC, Canada
Elias Charbel Massoud, JPL/NASA/Caltech, Pasadena, CA, United States, Huikyo Lee, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech, ALTADENA, CA, United States, Peter Bernard Gibson, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States and Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Dae Il Jeong, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON, Canada and Alex J. Cannon, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC, Canada
Xueying Zhao and Robert Allen, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
Chang-Eui Park, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China and Su-Jong Jeong, Seoul National Univeristy, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul, South Korea
Martin Dubrovsky1,2, Petr Stepanek2, Jiri Miksovsky2,3, Ondrej Lhotka1,2 and Jan Meitner2, (1)Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Prague, Czech Republic, (2)Global Change Research Institute CAS, Brno, Czech Republic, (3)Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, 180, Czech Republic
Ralf Ludwig, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany, Anne Frigon, Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal, QC, Canada, Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, François Brissette, École de Technologie Supérieure, Montreal, QC, Canada, Richard Turcotte, MDDELCC, Quebec, Canada and Dieter Kranzlmueller, LMU Munich, München, Germany
David E. Jahn1, William A. Gallus Jr2, Phong Nguyen3, Qiyun Pan4, Kristen Cetin1, Eunshin Byon4, Lance Manuel3, Yuyu Zhou5 and Elham Jahani5, (1)Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States, (2)Iowa State University, Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, IA, United States, (3)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States, (4)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, United States, (5)Iowa State University, Ames, United States
Udit Bhatia, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States and Auroop R Ganguly, Northeastern University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Boston, MA, UNITED STATES
Jesse Norris1, Gang Chen2 and J David Neelin1, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Jorge A Gironas1, Cristian Chadwick2, Sebastian Vicuna3 and Francisco Javier Meza3, (1)Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Santiago, Chile, (2)University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, (3)Centro de Cambio Global. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Yasuko Okada1, Masayoshi Ishii2, Hiroaki Kawase2, Mikiko Fujita3, Shiori Sugimoto3, Sho Kawazoe3 and Shingo Watanabe3, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (2)Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Emma E. Aalbers1,2, Geert Lenderink3, Erik van Meijgaard3 and Bart van den Hurk2,4, (1)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, 3730, Netherlands, (2)Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands, (3)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands, (4)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric sciences, De Bilt, Netherlands
Andrew Ross, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Raymond Najjar, The Pennsylvania State University, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, PA, United States
Jonathan Jalbert, Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada, Luc Perreault, IREQ, Varennes, QC, Canada and Éloïse Nolet-Gravel, Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Montreal, Canada
Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi1, Mohammad Reza Najafi2, Arelia T. Schoeneberg (Werner)3 and Markus Schnorbus3, (1)University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada, (2)University of Western Ontario, London, BC, Canada, (3)University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Margarida L. R. Liberato1,2, Hugo A Paredes1,3, Alexandre Miguel Ramos2, Arsénio Reis1, Riccardo Hénin2 and João Barroso1, (1)Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Vila Real, Portugal, (2)Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal, (3)INESC Technology and Science (INESC TEC), Porto, Portugal
Kevin Schwarzwald, University of Chicago, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, IL, United States, Andrew N Poppick, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States and Elisabeth J Moyer, University of Chicago, Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States
Matz A Haugen1, Michael Stein1, Elisabeth J Moyer2 and Ryan L Sriver3, (1)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (2)University of Chicago, Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States, (3)University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States