NH33C:
Recent Advances and Experience in Riverine Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment eLightning


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 51781

Session Description:
In recent years, the dominant paradigm for design, operation and maintenance of critical infrastructure, including water resources infrastructure, has shifted towards reliance on risk-informed decision-making.  For critical infrastructure in riverine settings, probabilistic modeling of riverine flooding hazards has become an essential tool.  However, thorough and rigorous treatment of uncertainty is still lacking in many applications involving probabilistic hazard assessments. Therefore, this session seeks submissions describing basic and applied research focused on characterizing and quantifying uncertainties in the process of hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of riverine flooding hazards.  Efforts to improve treatment of certain aspects of the probabilistic modeling enterprise (e.g., rainfall, watershed characteristics, routing, hydraulic parameters), as well as improved methods for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis, are sought.
Primary Convener:  Meredith L Carr, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Washington, DC, United States
Conveners:  Joseph Francis Kanney, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, MD, United States, Michelle Bensi, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College Park, United States and Stephen Breithaupt, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Meredith L Carr, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Washington, DC, United States
Chairs:  Michelle Bensi, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College Park, United States and Meredith L Carr, CRREL, Hanover, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Joseph Francis Kanney, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, MD, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • H - Hydrology
Index Terms:

1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1821 Floods [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
4303 Hydrological [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Combining Streamflow and Rainfall-Runoff Hydrologic Hazard Estimates for Dam Safety: Data, Physics and Uncertainty (Invited) (453360)
John F England Jr, US Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center, Jacksonville, FL, United States
Comparison of Local and Regional Methods to Estimate Peak Flow Quantiles Based on Synthetic Records (463080)
Ricardo Mantilla1, Witold Krajewski1, Gabriel Perez2 and Daniel B Wright3, (1)University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States, (2)University of Iowa, Iowa City, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Probabilistic hazard analysis (PHA) - Development of an aggregation model based on algebra of events (351427)
Yasser Hamdi1, Amine Ben Daoued2, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau2 and Philippe Sergent3, (1)IRSN Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay Aux Roses Cedex, France, (2)University of Technology of Compiègne, Compiègne, France, (3)Centre d’études et d’expertise sur les risques, l’environnement, la mobilité et l’aménagement CEREMA, Compiègne, France
Flood Risk Downstream of Confluences: Temporal Coincidence and Extremal Dependency (388761)
Calvin Whealton, Paul Scherrer Institute, Villingen, Switzerland
A novel stochastic modelling framework for ice-jam flood risk assessment and hazard mapping (417473)
Prabin Rokaya, Government of Alberta, Watershed Resilience and Predictions Branch, Alberta Environment and Protected Areas, Calgary, AB, Canada and Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, School of Environment and Sustainability, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
A Statistical Approach to Mapping Flood Susceptibility in the Lower Connecticut River Valley Region (374965)
Jason P Giovannettone, Dewberry, Water Resources, Fairfax, VA, United States, Thomas Copenhaver, Dewberry, Denver, United States, Margot Burns, Lower Connecticut River Council of Governments, Essex, United States and Scott Choquette, Dewberry, New Haven, United States
Probabilistic flood risk: quantifying uncertainty in flood hazard estimates and flood risk profiles for an urban watershed in Houston, TX (439359)
Ferne Maulsby, Rice University, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States, Antonia Sebastian, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences, Chapel Hill, NC, United States and Philip B Bedient, Rice University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States

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