A11K:
Extreme Weather Events: Forecast Skill, Uncertainty Quantification, and Impact Modeling II Posters


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 53893

Session Description:
Severe weather in the form of winter storms, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes and heat waves is a cause of major disruptions in human lives, critical infrastructure and the environment. Skillful prediction of such extreme events through numerical weather prediction, statistical techniques or their combination in hybrid dynamical-statistical methods is crucial for managing preparedness, emergency response, and mitigation of impacts. Additionally, understanding forecast uncertainty (e.g. initial condition and model error, or unresolved physical processes) improves situational awareness and influences confidence in impact modeling. This session is dedicated to the assessment of extreme weather prediction and solicits abstracts from a broad range of research focused on forecasting extreme weather events, understanding sources of forecast uncertainty (e.g. through dynamical and statistical ensembles), and evaluating the influence of forecast uncertainty on preparing for and managing severe weather through impact modeling.
Primary Convener:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs-Mansfield, United States
Conveners:  Luca Delle Monache1, Forest Cannon2,3 and Ali Hamidi2,4, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States(2)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States(3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States(4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs-Mansfield, United States
Chairs:  Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs-Mansfield, United States, Ali Hamidi, CUNY City College of New York, New York, United States and Luca Delle Monache, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Forest Cannon, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • H - Hydrology
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]
3329 Mesoscale meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

An Ensemble-Based Evaluation of WRF Precipitation Forecast Uncertainty in California Watersheds (466980)
Forest Cannon1, Rachel R Weihs2, Liza I Diaz Isaac3, Andrew Martin4, Ali Hamidi5, Anna Maria Wilson2 and Marty Ralph6, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (3)Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States, (4)UCAR, La Jolla, CA, United States, (5)CUNY City College of New York, New York, United States, (6)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States
An evaluation of global and mesoscale model forecasts of ice and wet snow over the northeastern US for the 2017-2018 winter season (368484)
David Siuta, Jason Shafer and Francis Tarasiewicz, Northern Vermont University, Lyndonville, VT, United States
Analysis of heavy precipitation events over the Korean Peninsula and verification of the predictability of operational numerical weather prediction models for those events (403746)
Joon-Woo Roh1, Hyeongoh Cho2, Dong-Hee Cho2 and Seok-Woo Son1, (1)Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, (2)Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Benefits of 1-km Forecasts for Extreme Weather Prediction (350468)
Craig S Schwartz and Ryan Sobash, NCAR/MMM, Boulder, CO, United States
Comparison of hybrid 4DEnVar and 3DEnVar data assimilation methods for atmospheric river forecasts in the WRF model (461412)
Minghua Zheng, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, United States, Bruce D Cornuelle, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado at Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States and F Martin Ralph, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States
Effects of the structure of training regime on a machine-learning based power outage model (376121)
Peter Lawrence Watson, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Diego Cerrai, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States and Emmanouil N Anagnostou, Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States
Ensemble Synoptic Analysis on the Slowing Motion of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Crossing Taiwan Island (402567)
Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, NULL, China and Yueting Gong, Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, China
Evaluate the significance of different spatial resolution rainfall forecast on the streamflow estimation with GSSHA (468350)
Ali Hamidi1, Liza I Diaz Isaac1, Rachel R Weihs2, Forest Cannon3, Andrew Martin4 and Marty Ralph5, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (3)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)Portland State University, Portland, CA, United States, (5)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States
Future Probability of Hurricanes and their Uncertainties Across the South and East Coast of the US from Bayesian Perspective (364664)
Jae Yeol Song1, Peyman Abbaszadeh1 and Hamid Moradkhani2, (1)The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States, (2)The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
GHWR, a multi-method global heatwave and warm-spell record and toolbox (394499)
Mojtaba Sadegh1, Ehsan Raei2, Mohammad Nikoo2, Omid Mazdiyasni3 and Amir AghaKouchak4, (1)Boise State University, Department of Civil Engineering, Boise, ID, United States, (2)Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran, (3)University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, (4)University of California, Irvine, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, United States
Impact of Historical Storms in Machine Learning Outage Prediction Model (379151)
Feifei Yang, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States, David Walter Wanik, University of Connecticut, Operations and Information Management, Stamford, CT, United States and Emmanouil N Anagnostou, Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States
Impact of SST uncertainty on heavy precipitation events over Japan during summer (424016)
Satoshi Iizuka, NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan
On the impact of air-sea feedback mechanisms under storm events (431245)
Christos Stathopoulos, Platon Patlakas, Christos Tsalis and George B Kallos, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Recent and Projected Changes in Excess Heat Factor for the Northeast U.S. (383779)
Junya Wu, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States and Anji Seth, University of Connecticut, Geography, Groton, CT, United States
Return periods of Medicanes: a wind-wave approach combining numerical weather prediction models and stochastic processes (431235)
Platon Patlakas, Christos Stathopoulos, Christos Tsalis and George B Kallos, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Selection of Representative Climate and Statistical Downscaling for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the Rhode Island, USA (412645)
Shiva Shrestha, University of Rhode Island, Geoscience, Narragansett, RI, United States and Soni M Pradhanang, The Small Earth Nepal, University of Rhode Island, RI, USA, Kathmandu, Nepal
Sub-seasonal Forecast of the Extreme Snow Storms over Southern China in Early 2008: Results from BCC_CSM Hindcast Experiment (383072)
Lina Zheng, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Successes and Failures of Deterministic Precipitation Forecasts Leading up to the 2017 Oroville Dam Crisis (437661)
Janice L Bytheway1, Kelly M Mahoney1, Mimi Abel2 and Robert Cifelli3, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (3)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Uncertainty Assessment of Extreme Storm Forecasts Using Numerical Weather Prediction and Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression (419190)
Jaemo Yang, University of Connecticut, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs-Mansfield, United States, Diego Cerrai, University of Connecticut, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States and Peter Lawrence Watson, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States
Use of Historical Data to Assess and Forecast Regional Climate Change (358013)
Yuchuan Lai, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States and David A Dzombak, Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA, United States

See more of: Atmospheric Sciences