A41L:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather and Climate IV Posters


Submit an Abstract to this Session


Session ID#: 56671

Session Description:
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S­) forecasts (2 weeks to a season ahead) to provide early warning of high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves. An extensive database of S2S forecasts and hindcasts from operational centers has been created by the WWRP/WCRP S2S project that enables sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, tropics-midlatitude-poles teleconnections, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.) to be studied, forecast skill assessed, and early warning systems developed tailored to user needs. Contributions are solicited on all aspects of S2S prediction, with emphasis on studies making use of the S2S project database, YTMIT (Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections), and on possible influences of the 2015/16 El Nino on sub-seasonal forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Conveners:  Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States
Chairs:  Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States and Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The impact of increasing ensemble size on the skill of operational CFSv2 45-day forecasts: Probabilistic Assessment (424026)
Malaquias Peña, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Suranjana Saha, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States and Hugo M Van den Dool, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States
Application of Breeding of Growing Mode ensemble method in seasonal prediction of climate system model (440643)
Li Wu1, Xiaoge Xin2, Yanjie Cheng2 and Wei Xue1, (1)Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (2)National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Increased Predictability of Spring Precipitation over Central East China around the Late 1970s (428263)
Mengqi Zhang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, NZC, Beijing, China and Jianqi Sun, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Beijing, China
Performance Assessment of Ensemble Prediction Data based on Improvement of Seasonal Forecast System at KMA (428733)
Hyunjun HAM1, Somin Lim2, Sang-Min Lee2, Yu-Kyung Hyun3 and Yoonjae Kim3, (1)National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, South Korea, (2)National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seogwipo, South Korea, (3)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, South Korea
Intraseasonal modulation of ENSO teleconnections over East Asia by MJO (400915)
Chang-Hyun Park1, Seok-Woo Son2 and Jung Choi1, (1)Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, South Korea
NASA GEOS-S2S (Version 2) model for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions:The major teleconnections, troical cyclone activity, and ENSO (438291)
Young-Kwon Lim, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Andrea Molod, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, United States and Siegfried D Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Change in the physical properties associated with Intraseasonal Oscillation in East Asia during summer (404082)
Taegyu Noh, Hanyang University, Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Hanyang University, Seoul, South Korea, Sang-Wook Yeh, Hanyang University, ERICA, Department of Marine Science and Convergence Engineering, Ansan, South Korea and Se-Yong Song, University of California Santa Barbara, Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, United States
Subseasonal Errors and Skill in FIM-iHYCOM Model Precipitation: Sensitivity to Convective Parameterization and Model Resolution (392474)
Benjamin Green, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Shan Sun, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Georg A Grell, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Stan Benjamin, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States
Multivariate Water Stress Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in the United States (401585)
Avi Rubel, Stamford, CT, United States, Arun Ravindranath, CUNY Hunter College, New York, NY, United States and Naresh Devineni, Department of Civil Engineering, The City College of the City University of New York, and CUNY-CREST, Department of Civil Engineering, New York, United States
North Atlantic Hurricanes Activity and its Dynamical Response over South America (347000)
Lais tabosa Machado1, Tercio Ambrizzi2 and Pedro da Silva Dias1, (1)IAG Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, Brazil, (2)USP University of Sao Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Prediction skill of United States flash droughts in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model hindcasts (419612)
Dr. Anthony M DeAngelis, PhD, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, Hailan Wang, SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States, Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard SFC, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, Siegfried D Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Yehui Chang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
The IRI Climate Data Library as a Platform to Archive, Analyze, and Distribute SubX Project Data (450691)
Michael A Bell1, Andrew William Robertson2, Michael Tippett3, M Benno Blumenthal1, John del Corral1, Rémi Cousin4, Igor Khomyakov1 and Audrey Vadillo1, (1)Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Center for Climate Systems Research @NASA GISS, New York, United States, (3)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, (4)International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Modulation of the Arctic Oscillation on the Impacts of the MJO upon the East Asian Winter Temperature Variations (367479)
LEI Song, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing, China and Renguang Wu, Zhejiang University, School of Earth Sciences, Hangzhou, China
On the Angola Low interannual variability and its role for modulating ENSO effects in southern Africa (384285)
Salvatore Pascale1, Benjamin Pohl2, Sarah B Kapnick1 and Honghai Zhang3, (1)Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, UMR 6282 Biogéosciences, CNRS/Université Bourgogne Europe, Dijon, France, (3)Princeton University, AOS, Princeton, NJ, United States
Impacts of Tropical and Extratropical Diabatic Heating on Stationary Wave Forcing and Arctic Warming (387294)
Mingyu Park, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton, United States and Sukyoung Lee, Penn State University, University Park, PA, United States
Extratropical Forcing of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in the East Pacific ITCZ (411261)
Lidia Huaman1, Courtney Schumacher1 and George N Kiladis2, (1)Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States, (2)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
Sensitivity of Atmospheric Rivers to Damping of Mid-latitude Sub-seasonal Variability (444485)
Erik Swenson, George Mason University Fairfax, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States and Cristiana Stan, George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA, United States
Seasonal Prediction of Summer Temperature in Five Central Asian Countries (353523)
Zhanmei Yang, Insititute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, CMSR, Beijing, China
An Analysis of the Uncertainties in Precipitation Season Forecasts over the US West Coast (356199)
Mingyue Chen, NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States
Stretching the Limit of Seasonal Predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (362682)
Subodh Kumar Saha, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Predicting Sea Surface Temperatures and Heat Content for New Zealand shelf seas on multi-week to seasonal timescales with ACCESS-S1 (377108)
Catherine de Burgh-Day, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, Claire M Spillman, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia, Craig L Stevens, Earth Sciences New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand, Oscar Alves, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia and Graham Rickard, VUW, Wellington, New Zealand
Evaluation of Real-time Forecast Performance of the Health Impact Oriented Global Subseasonal Excessive Heat Outlook System during Summer of 2018 (379321)
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Evaluation of the dominant modes of sub-seasonal variability in the NCEP GEFS 35-day Experiments (380918)
Wei Li, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, Xiaqiong Zhou, IMSG at NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, United States, Eric Sinsky, IMSG, College Park, MD, United States, Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, Eric Sinsky, IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States and Hong Guan, SRG at Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS, College Park, MD, United States
On the Predictability of Short-term Climate Simulations of African Easterly Waves within a Global Mesoscale Model: A View with a Generalized Lorenz Model (381836)
Bo-Wen Shen1, Samson Cheung2, Juilin Li3, Tiffany Reyes1, Jialin Cui1 and Sara Faghih-Naini1, (1)San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States, (2)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Winter Storm Tracks and Related Weather in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Weeks 3-4 Reforecasts (392237)
Katherine Lukens, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States and Ernesto Hugo Berbery, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Winter Monsoon Extremes over the Deccan Plateau Associated with the Siberian High (393037)
Bala Narapusetty, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Raghuram G Murtugudde, Univ of MD--ESSIC, College Park, United States, Hui Wang, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, United States, Shaik Rehana, International Institute of Information Technology, Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India and Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States
Progress Toward Reducing Common Cloud-Radiation Errors from Day 1 to Week 4 Prediction (397319)
Stan Benjamin, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Georg A Grell, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Joseph Olson, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, Tatiana G Smirnova, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, United States, Shan Sun, NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States and David D Turner, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, United States; NOAA Boulder, Global Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Winter Blocking and Extreme Temperature Frequency (407137)
Douglas Miller, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States and Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States
Bridging the Weather-to-Climate Prediction Gap: Progress by the NOAA S2S Prediction Task Force (407723)
Annarita Mariotti, NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, United States, Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States, Edmund K M Chang, Stony Brook Univ St Univ NY, Stony Brook, United States, Andrea A. Lopez Lang, University at Albany State University of New York, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States, Paul Dirmeyer, COLA, Fairfax, United States, Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Daniel Barrie, NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Week 3-4 Predictions using Machine Learning Techniques (411035)
Paul Buchmann and Timothy M DelSole, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States
The Testing of Dynamical and Canonical Tools For Prediction in the Day 8-10 Forecast Period at the Weather Prediction Center Hydrometeorological Testbed (413246)
Michael J Bodner, NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Bill Lamberson, IM Systems Group/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, Sara Ganetis, IM Systems Group/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, United States and James A. Nelson Jr, NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, United States
Subseasonal and Seasonal Prediction at NOAA: Plans and Prospects (416475)
Timothy Schneider, NOAA NWS, OSTI, Boulder, United States, Frederick Toepfer, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD, United States, David DeWitt, NOAA CPC, College Park, MD, United States, Arun Chawla, Tomorrow.io, Boston, United States, Jessie Carman, NOAA OAR Weather Program Office, Silver Spring, United States, Jon Gottschalck, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC, United States, Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, Karen Keith, NOAA NWS, OSTI, Silver Spring, United States and Hendrik L Tolman, NOAA / NWS / OSTI, Silver Spring, United States
Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo (420361)
David Raff, Department of the Interior Denver, Denver, CO, United States, Kenneth Nowak, Bureau of Reclamation, Research and Development Office, Denver, CO, United States, Robert Cifelli, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Levi D Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, United States and Robert Stabler Webb, NOAA/OAR/PSL, Boulder, CO, United States
Impact of Ocean Observation Systems on Sub-seasonal Forecasts and Ocean Analyses (427233)
Aneesh Subramanian, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, Magdalena Balmaseda, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, Mio Matsueda, University of Tsukuba, Center for Computational Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan, Yuhei Takaya, Meteorological Research Institute, Department of Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth System Modeling Research, Ibaraki, Japan, Yosuke Fujii, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan and F Martin Ralph, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States
Improvement of Seasonal Prediction for Indian Monsoon based on Spatial Patterns using Deep Learning Techniques (428333)
Rishi Dipak Sahastrabuddhe, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India, Subimal Ghosh, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India, Anamitra Saha, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Earth Signals and Systems Group, Cambridge, United States and Raghuram G Murtugudde, Univ of MD--ESSIC, College Park, United States
Evaluation of the SubX Reforecast Skill under Real-time Considerations (438770)
Emerson LaJoie, NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Dan C Collins, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States
A methodology for anomaly coupling in numerical s2s forecasts (438902)
Thomas Toniazzo, University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, Shunya Koski, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway and Francois Counillon, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Why it is so Difficult to Predict Southern California Precipitation (446528)
Hugo M Van den Dool, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States, Emily Becker, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Suranjana Saha, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
Mechanisms Driving Bottom Temperature Predictability off Washington-Oregon Coast – Do They Differ from the Surface? (457109)
Sulagna Ray, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, CT, United States, Samantha Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States, Isaac Kaplan, NOAA NWFSC, Seattle, WA, United States, Albert J Hermann, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), Seattle, United States, Nicholas A Bond, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, Emily L Norton, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, Seattle, United States, Dr. Jan A Newton, PhD, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, United States, Simone R Alin, NOAA PMEL, Seattle, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Prof. Melanie R Fewings, PhD, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, United States
Groundwater-Atmosphere Interactions: A Scale-dependent Process to Combat Persistent Warm Bias in Seasonal Forecasts over the Central United States (465906)
Michael J Barlage, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, United States, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, University of Santiago de Compostela, CRETUS, Non-Linear Physics Group, Santiago de Compostela, Spain and Fei Chen, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States

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