V54A:
Quantitative Volcanic Hazard Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis in Satellite Remote Sensing and Modeling I


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Session ID#: 57305

Session Description:
Volcanic eruptions can be both effusive, through outpouring of lava onto the ground, and explosive, through dispersion of ash in the atmosphere. Each type of eruptive process can produce its associated hazards, from lava flows that can impact local population to dispersing ash clouds that can lead to aviation impacts. To deal effectively with these crises, a strategy based on the integration of field data, satellite observations and physical models is emerging to forecast eruptive scenarios and quantify volcanic hazards in real-time. Understanding and quantifying uncertainties surrounding model inputs, the modeling process, and model outputs is thus central to make the modeling of volcanic hazards effective. Characterizing uncertainties will allows more confidence in interpretations of final model simulations and applications of model results for improved decision support systems. To achieve this, the session seeks to bring together the remote sensing, modelling and hazard response communities with a volcanic hazard focus.
Primary Convener:  Ciro Del Negro, INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Catania, Italy
Conveners:  Prof. Michael S Ramsey, PhD, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, United States, Alexis Hérault, Conservatoire des Arts et Métiers, Laboratoire Modélisation Mahématique et Numerique, Paris, France and Matthew Watson, University of Bristol, Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom
Primary Liaison:  Ciro Del Negro, INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Catania, Italy
Chairs:  Ciro Del Negro, INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Catania, Italy and Prof. Michael S Ramsey, PhD, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Alexis Hérault, Conservatoire des Arts et Métiers, Laboratoire Modélisation Mahématique et Numerique, Paris, France
Index Terms:

4316 Physical modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
8485 Remote sensing of volcanoes [VOLCANOLOGY]
8488 Volcanic hazards and risks [VOLCANOLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Optimal Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from multiple data sources, and topography analysis sensitivity for improved volcano hazard assessment (394483)
Elodie Macorps1, Fanghui Deng2, Timothy H Dixon3, Mel Rodgers4, Cristian M López5 and Milton Ordoñez5, (1)University of South Florida Tampa, Tampa, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)University of South Florida, School of Geosciences, Tampa, United States, (4)University of South Florida, School of Geosciences, Tampa, FL, United States, (5)Colombian Geological Service, Department of Geological Hazards, Manizales, Colombia
Applying Conceptual Models to Multi-Parameter Remotely Detected Observations of Volcanic Unrest Over Multiple Decades in Latin America (382250)
Kevin Reath, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, United States, Juliet Biggs, University of Bristol, COMET, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, Benjamin James Andrews, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Mineral Sciences, Washington, United States, Marco Bagnardi, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, Susanna K Ebmeier, University of Leeds, COMET, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, Társilo Girona, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, Lundgren Paul, JPL/NASA/Caltech, Pasadena, United States, Taryn M Lopez, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, United States, Michael P Poland, USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States and Matthew E Pritchard, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States
Emissivity retrievals from active lava surfaces: Implications for improved flow modeling and hazard assessment (399050)
Prof. Michael S Ramsey, PhD, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, United States and James Oliver Thompson, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
InSAR Characterization of Ground Surface Displacements Related to Lava Flows at Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) (404417)
Alexis Hrysiewicz1, Jean-Luc Froger2, Thierry Menand1, Nicolas Villeneuve3 and Aline Peltier4, (1)Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS UMR 6524, IRD 163, OPGC, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Clermont-Ferrand, France, (2)Saint Etienne Université, Saint Etienne, France, (3)Laboratoire Géosciences Réunion, Université de la Réunion, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris-Cité, UMR 7154 CNRS, Saint-Denis, Reunion, (4)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris-Cité, UMR 7154 CNRS, Université Paris Diderot, Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise, Bourg-Murat, Reunion
SPACEBORNE SUPPORT TO THE PREDICTION OF LAVA DISTANCE TO RUN: A DISCUSSION (428849)
Fabrizio Ferrucci1, Nikola Rogic2, Gaetana Ganci3, Annalisa Cappello3, Stephen Blake4 and Hazel Rymer5, (1)University of Calabria, Calabria, Italy, (2)University of South Florida, School of Geosciences, Tampa, United States, (3)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Catania, Catania, Italy, (4)Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom, (5)Open University, EEES, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
Toward Modeling Lava Breakouts (433583)
Colton James Conroy and Einat Lev, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability density function for inundation edge location (432834)
David Matthew Hyman, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, United States, Marcus I Bursik, University at Buffalo, Department of Earth Sciences, Buffalo, NY, United States and Andrea Bevilacqua, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States

See more of: Volcanology, Geochemistry and Petrology