GC33J:
Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Climate Change Signal, Extremes, and Compound Events at Various Spatiotemporal Scales Posters


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Session ID#: 57663

Session Description:
Large ensemble model simulations, either from Global Climate Models (GCM), Earth System Models (ESM), or Regional Climate Models (RCM), have been generated over the recent years. They are breaking ground to investigate natural variability and how climate change signals may emerge from natural variability at various spatio-temporal scales. They also provides long time series to investigate the dynamics of hydro-meteorological extremes and assess compound events (e.g., successive or simultaneous extreme events, or events resulting in extremes only when combined) under climate change. This session welcomes studies using large GCM, ESM, or RCM ensembles and looking at the following topics: 1) impacts of natural variability; 2) assessment of extreme event occurrence in historical and future climate; 3) development of projections for various compound events; 4) comparison of large ensembles including uncertainty assessment; 5) interpretation of observational records; 6) optimization of observing network design; and 7) novel post-processing methods.
Primary Convener:  Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea
Conveners:  Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, Emma E. Aalbers, Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands and Flavio Lehner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Primary Liaison:  Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada
Chairs:  Martin Leduc, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada and Emma E. Aalbers, Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands
OSPA Liaison:  Ralf Ludwig, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

When Can Climate Variability Mitigate Future Megadrought Risk? (412869)
Samantha Stevenson, University of California Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, Sloan Coats, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Jonathan T Overpeck, Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, John Fasullo, NCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Toby Ault, Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Ithaca, NY, United States and Julia E Cole, University of Arizona, Tucson, United States
Enhancing Predictability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Changing Climate using Outputs of Large Ensemble Experiment (418797)
Udit Bhatia, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States and Auroop R Ganguly, Northeastern University, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Boston, United States
Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina Region under climate change using large ensemble based on a single-model configuration (349283)
Patinya Hanittinan1, Yasuto Tachikawa2, Yutaka Ichikawa3, Kazuaki Yorozu2 and Teerawat Ram-Indra4, (1)Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, (2)Kyoto University, Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto, Japan, (3)Kyoto University, Department of Urban Management, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto, Japan, (4)Kyoto University, Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto, Japan
Assessing the occurrence of extreme heat waves using the ClimEx large ensemble (344294)
Martin Leduc1, Alain Mailhot2, Jonathan Jalbert3, Elizaveta Pechenova4, Ludwig Hüttenhofer4, Anne Frigon5 and Ralf Ludwig6, (1)Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, (3)Polytechnique Montréal, Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, Montreal, Canada, (4)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (5)Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal, QC, Canada, (6)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany
The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) - Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability (354209)
Jochem Marotzke1, Nicola Maher1, Sebastian Milinski2, Laura Suarez Gutierrez3, Michael Botzet1, Jürgen Kröger1, Luis Kornblueh2, Rohit Ghosh1, Christopher Hedemann1, Hongmei Li2, Elisa Manzini2, Dirk Notz1, Dian Putrasahan4, Dr. Yohei Takano, PhD2, Lena Boysen2, Martin Claussen2, Chao Li5, Dirk Olonscheck2, Thomas Raddatz2, Christian H. Reick2 and Bjorn Stevens2, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Ocean in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany, (2)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (3)ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland, (4)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Climate Dynamics, Hamburg, Germany, (5)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Climate Variability Department, Hamburg, Germany
Producing coherent and unbiased joint temperature-precipitation realizations from Earth System Models (359891)
Ben Kravitz1, Abigail Snyder2,3, Robert P Link4, Ben P Bond-Lamberty5 and Corinne Hartin2, (1)Indiana University, Bloomington, United States, (2)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, (5)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Richland, WA, United States
Clear Air Turbulence over the North Pacific in a 2-degree Warming Climate – Ensemble Projections by a 60-km Atmospheric General Circulation Model (366725)
Shingo Watanabe1, Mikiko Fujita2, Sho Kawazoe3, Shiori Sugimoto4, Yasuko Okada1, Ryo Mizuta5 and Masayoshi Ishii5, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (2)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan, (3)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, (4)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, (5)Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Attributing Changes of Internal Variability to Global Warming Using a Large Ensemble (372830)
Sebastian Milinski1,2, Juergen Bader3,4, Johann H Jungclaus1 and Jochem Marotzke5, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany, (3)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Land in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany, (4)Uni Climate, Uni Research and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (5)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Climate Variability, Hamburg, Germany
Using Re-Forecast Ensembles for Extreme Value Statistics (377618)
Timo Kelder, University of Loughborough, Geography and Environment, Loughborough, United Kingdom, Malte Müller, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway and Patrik Bohlinger, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Constraining future precipitation projections over the contiguous United States using a multi-objective model evaluation framework (379484)
Elias Charbel Massoud1, Hugo Lee2, Peter Bernard Gibson3 and Duane Edward Waliser2, (1)JPL/NASA/Caltech, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Projected changes to freezing precipitation and design ice loads for buildings and infrastructure over North America in a large ensemble of CanRCM4 simulations (379733)
Dae Il Jeong, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON, Canada and Alex J. Cannon, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC, Canada
Strengthening of the Walker Circulation in recent decades and the role of natural sea surface temperature variability (382014)
Xueying Zhao and Robert Allen, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
Increasing old people in poor region will be threatened by early emergence of heat waves (385801)
Chang-Eui Park, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen, China and Su-Jong Jeong, Seoul National Univeristy, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul, South Korea
Spatial Temperature-Precipitation Compound Events in Europe: Weather Generator vs. Regional Climate Models, Future vs. Present climate (389414)
Martin Dubrovsky1,2, Petr Stepanek2, Jiri Miksovsky2,3, Ondrej Lhotka1,2, Jan Meitner2 and Petr Skalak2, (1)Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Prague, Czech Republic, (2)Global Change Research Institute CAS, Brno, Czech Republic, (3)Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, 180, Czech Republic
Assessing the impacts of climate change and natural variability on hydrological extreme events over Eastern North America and Europe (389659)
Ralf Ludwig, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany, Anne Frigon, Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal, QC, Canada, Alain Mailhot, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau-Terre-Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada, François Brissette, École de Technologie Supérieure, Montreal, QC, Canada, Richard Turcotte, MELCCFP, Quebec, QC, Canada and Dieter Kranzlmueller, LMU Munich, München, Germany
Time of Steady Change (391500)
Megan Lickley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States, B. B. Cael, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States and Susan Solomon, MIT/EAPS, Cambridge, United States
Challenges in Determining Most Likely Future Urban Hot Temperature Extremes by Mid-Century for the Central U.S. (393452)
David E. Jahn1, William A. Gallus Jr2, Phong Nguyen3, Qiyun Pan4, Kristen Cetin1, Eunshin Byon4, Lance Manuel3, Yuyu Zhou5 and Elham Jahani6, (1)Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States, (2)Iowa State University, Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, IA, United States, (3)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States, (4)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, United States, (5)Iowa State University, Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, United States, (6)Iowa State University, Ames, United States
Traceability Analysis of Ensemble Modeling Results with A Unified Diagnostic System to Improve Land Carbon Cycle Predictions (402981)
Yizhao Chen1,2, Cuijuan Liao3, Yuanyuan Huang4, Xingjie Lu5, Yishuang Liang6, Xiaomeng Huang6, Wei Xue6 and Yiqi Luo7, (1)Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China, (2)Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (3)Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China, (4)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (5)Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States, (6)Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, (7)Cornell University, School of Integrative Plant Science, Ithaca, United States
The CLIVAR Working Group on Large Ensembles: Sharing Large Ensemble output from different models for the analysis of climate variability and change (417455)
Flavio Lehner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea and Adam Phillips, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, United States
Using an ensemble technique in the estimation of the local time of emergence for planning adaptation decisions (420973)
Jorge A Gironas1, Cristian Chadwick2, Sebastian Vicuna3 and Francisco Meza3, (1)Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Departmento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Santiago, Chile, (2)Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Santiago, Chile, (3)Centro de Cambio Global. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Future changes and uncertainty in summer extreme precipitation frequency in Japan by large ensemble simulations (424507)
Yasuko Okada1, Masayoshi Ishii2, Hiroaki Kawase2, Mikiko Fujita3, Shiori Sugimoto4, Sho Kawazoe4 and Shingo Watanabe4, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (2)Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan, (4)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Megadrought Risk in Low-Warming Scenarios (425107)
Toby Ault, Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Ithaca, NY, United States, Sloan Coats, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Justin S Mankin, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States, Carlos M. Carrillo, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, Jason E Smerdon, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Scott St. George, University of Minnesota, Geography, Environment & Society, Minneapolis, United States, Park Williams, Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Benjamin I Cook, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, Flavio Lehner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Samantha Stevenson, University of California, Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, United States and Nathan John Steiger, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Hydro-meteorological changes in European catchments: scale-dependency of the forced climate response and natural variability (431736)
Emma E. Aalbers1,2, Geert Lenderink1, Erik van Meijgaard1 and Bart van den Hurk2,3, (1)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands, (2)Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands, (3)Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric sciences, De Bilt, Netherlands
Time of Emergence Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemistry and Observerables (433383)
Sarah Schlunegger1, Keith B Rodgers2, Jorge L Sarmiento3, John P Dunne4, Tatiana Ilyina5, Dr. Yohei Takano, PhD5, James R Christian6, Matthew C Long7 and Thomas L Froelicher8, (1)Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea, (3)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States, (5)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (6)Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada, (7)[C]Worthy, LLC, Boulder, United States, (8)University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland
Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models from a large ensemble to simulate future hydrological change (434610)
Andrew Ross, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Raymond Najjar, The Pennsylvania State University, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States
A new approach to benchmark present-day’s TOA flux in 9.6-μm ozone band from model ensemble (442355)
Le Kuai, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Kevin W Bowman, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, Helen Marie Worden, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory (ACOM), Boulder, CO, United States, Susan Sund Kulawik, Bay Area Environmental Research Institute/NASA Ames Research Center, Mountain View, CA, United States, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, Andrew J Conley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling, Boulder, CO, United States, J F Lamarque, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Fabien Paulot, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, David Paynter, NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Luke Oman, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, Sarah A Strode, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States, Eugene Rozanov, PMOD WRC Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland, Andrea Stenke, ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Zurich, Switzerland, Laura E Revell, NIWA, Christchurch, New Zealand, David A. Plummer, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Branch, Montreal, QC, Canada, Makoto Deushi, Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, Japan, Kiyotaka Shibata, Meteorological Research Inst, Ibaraki, Japan, Patrick Joeckel, German Aerospace Center DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Wessling, Germany and Markus Kunze, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Expert Crowdsourcing for Semantic Annotation of Atmospheric Phenomena (449375)
Margarida L. R. Liberato1,2, Hugo A Paredes1,3, Alexandre Miguel Ramos2, Arsénio Reis1, Riccardo Henin2 and João Barroso1, (1)Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Vila Real, Portugal, (2)Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal, (3)INESC Technology and Science (INESC TEC), Porto, Portugal
Frequency-dependent changes in temperature variability across global climate models (455706)
Kevin Schwarzwald, PhD, University of Chicago, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, IL, United States, Andrew N Poppick, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States and Elisabeth J Moyer, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States
Emergence of ecosystem stressors at the ocean's euphotic zone depth under 21st century climate change (456450)
Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea, Sarah Schlunegger, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States and Burke R Hales, Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR, United States
Estimating changes in temperature distributions in a large ensemble of climate simulations using quantile regression (461538)
Matz A Haugen, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, Michael Stein, University of Chicago, Department of Statistics, Chicago, IL, United States, Elisabeth J Moyer, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States and Ryan L Sriver, University of Illinois, Urbana, United States
Identifying a set of plausible GCMs for regional climate change studies. Case study: Northeastern U.S. (466613)
Alexander M Bryan, US Geological Survey, Northeast Climate Science Center, Amherst, MA, United States, Ambarish Karmalkar, University of Rhode Island, Department of Geoscience, Narragansett, RI, United States, Jeanne M Thibeault, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States and Anji Seth, University of Connecticut, Geography, Groton, CT, United States

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